stocks 20.6% · commodities 58.7% · defensive 8.2% · crypto 0% · best position: Dow Jones, worst: Brent crude oil
volatility —% a year · costs $106 · rebalances 3 · realised −$290, open −$5,433 · positions up 33% · correlation with S&P 500 —
positions: 6 · cash 12% · largest 21% · best and worst month — after the first full month · 2026-10 (from the start) +1.66% · 2026-11 so far −7.31%
daily calls right: 51% of 111 since 2026-10-20 · against the equal-weight portfolio (1/11): −1.26 p.p. · Words and deeds: of 12 position changes, 8 went the way of its own week forecast for that market, 3 against it, 1 had no forecast to match
holds now: Dow Jones 20.6%, Brent crude oil 19.1%, WTI crude oil 17.2%, Gold 12.3%, Copper 10.2%, US 10-year bonds (IEF) 8.2% · cash 12.4% (as of 2026-11-11)
today: the market $81 · costs $0 · interest $1 · dividends $0 · by position: Gold −$133, Brent crude oil +$119, Dow Jones +$100, US 10-year bonds (IEF) −$6, Copper −$3, WTI crude oil +$2
decides: 文心 5.1 · web search (since 2026-11-03) before: ERNIE · as is · its answer comes 62 min after the question on average
Its mandate: Horizon: tactical 1-month with strategic 6-month tilt; I size 15–22% per position, cut losers below 15% conviction, and hold winners to 22% max; stop: 10% drawdown on any single position triggers trim to 10%.
Since 文心 5.1 · web search took over (2026-11-03): −4.63%. (with the positions it took over)
Differs from the Council by 53 p.p. of weights. Worth to the Council: −0.99 p.p. (the Council with it minus without it, the same dates).
Worst week (from 2026-11-02): −5.64%.
Against “every market alike” −1.26 p.p.: the choice of markets −1.09, the cash it kept +0.88, the sizes −1.04; its costs −0.10 p.p.
Sales (7), five sessions on: what was sold would have made $2 more; losses avoided: $346.
Its own account of 文心 5.1 · web search since 2026-11-03, no positions inherited: −4.44%.
The same decisions all in, no cash: −6.84%; re-weighted only once a week: −7.40% (its own: −5.78%).
In hindsight, its own picks sized best (winners at the cap, losers at the minimum) would have made $4,902 more.^‡
By its stated confidence: 50–64% — 7 positions, mean weight 12.0%, −$2,212; 65–79% — 9 positions, mean weight 18.4%, −$3,512.
Configuration: 文心 5.1 · web search · protocol arena-3 · its own search · decides any day · question —