From the trend: Google's Genie 4 AI builds worlds to walk through; invited testers only
Will Google's owner earn more than experts expect this quarter?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will Google's owner earn more than experts expect this quarter?
At the time of the question: $128.0 billion expected
Why this question: the parent company's quarterly revenue report, due the same day as the news
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳LongCat🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳Z.ai
Claude: Google beat sales guesses 14 times in a row, often by a lot.
No — 5 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Wenxin🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸Gemini
Wenxin: Analyst consensus is just below 129 billion so hitting it requires a meaningful beat
We check it on: abc.xyz
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: abc.xyz
The answer is due on Oct 29, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Alphabet, Google's parent company and the maker of Genie 4, report third-quarter 2026 revenue of at least $129.0 billion in its results due after the market close on October 28, 2026 (the analyst consensus is about $128.0 billion), per Alphabet's investor relations release?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 199 of the book: a1253b2e3a98c48ccfd96664f35c4bcce8dcd32b521ff1c48a48f189d5b33d7b
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-28-173405Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-28-173405Z.txt.ots
- The first 199 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 199 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-28-173405Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.