From the trend: Google's Gemini 4 Carbon is for now open only to cybersecurity defenders
Will Google's new AI climb into the top three website builders by Monday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will Google's new AI climb into the top three website builders by Monday?
At the time of the question: #4
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳Z.ai
Nemotron + Mercury: Carbon sits fourth in WebDev Arena at 1768 points; small score gains could push it into top three
No — 7 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Kimi
Claude: Climbing past three stronger rivals in four days rarely happens without big changes.
We check it on: lmarena.ai
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: lmarena.ai
The answer is due on Nov 2, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Gemini 4 Carbon be in the top 3 of the WebDev Arena leaderboard on LMArena on Monday, November 2, 2026, at 18:00 UTC? It is fourth now, with 1768 points.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 4 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 200 of the book: 665b29e7a2b1308d2a7fc246f28a9c08fd0ec3672662ac8d69d9debc04105a7e
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-29-173445Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-29-173445Z.txt.ots
- The first 200 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 200 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-29-173445Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.