From the trend: Musk cuts how much paying users can use his AI helper
Will Musk's SpaceX be worth more on Wednesday than on Tuesday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will Musk's SpaceX be worth more on Wednesday than on Tuesday?
At the time of the question: $141.53
Why this question: the stock of the company that owns the AI helper being cut
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT
Wenxin: SpaceX is private so daily price moves are small; Musk's budget talk is a mild worry, not a crash
No — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳StepFun
Nemotron + Mercury: SpaceX is private, no Nasdaq ticker
Could not decide (50/50): Claude, Qwen
We check it on: google.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: google.com
The answer is due on Nov 4, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will SpaceX's share price (Nasdaq: SPCX) close higher on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 than its close on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, per Google Finance?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 23 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 206 of the book: 6a99c50e53a1389f9ab7b43dd025073091ab64dead242c319f3500d008198ebb
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-11-03-215334Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-11-03-215334Z.txt.ots
- The first 206 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 206 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-11-03-215334Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.