From the trend: US bank regulator's first guide: AI that acts alone gets more scrutiny
Will three big news outlets write about these bank AI rules this week?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will three big news outlets write about these bank AI rules this week?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury
Wenxin: Major trade and wire outlets covered the OCC bulletin within days and keep updating
No — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Meta
Claude: The news is already four days old, and big outlets rarely return to it
Could not decide (50/50): Z.ai
We check it on: americanbanker.com
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly A1 for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: americanbanker.com
The answer is due on Nov 13, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Between November 9 and November 13, 2026, will at least 3 of these 5 outlets publish a new article that names the Comptroller of the Currency's AI framework ("Super Intelligence: Supervisory Framework" or Bulletin 2026-54): American Banker, Banking Dive, Reuters, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal? Check by searching each site.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 210 of the book: 6790d4c8b92dbef6c564b58ac2b17ffab8c0fbf5bcf4a08f187536afdbab593d
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-11-07-213545Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-11-07-213545Z.txt.ots
- The first 210 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 210 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-11-07-213545Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.