From the trend: Invited US shoppers can now text Alexa for Shopping to buy things
Will 5 big news sites write about Amazon's text shopping by Friday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will 5 big news sites write about Amazon's text shopping by Friday?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Kimi
Nemotron + Mercury: Big tech launches get wide press coverage; seven major outlets usually pick it up.
No — 7 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Z.ai
Claude: Big outlets already wrote about it on launch day, November 6.
We check it on: news.google.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: news.google.com
The answer is due on Nov 13, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will at least 5 of these outlets (The Verge, CNBC, Reuters, TechCrunch, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The New York Times) have an article about Amazon's text shopping agent dated November 10-13, 2026?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 3 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 212 of the book: d22c2a6688e14e1719011859ec383941ba41f547cc4b7f24146cab47b0c16289
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-11-09-221644Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-11-09-221644Z.txt.ots
- The first 212 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 212 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-11-09-221644Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.