From the trend: Meta's AI helper that does tasks for you now lives on your watch
Which is more popular on iPhones on Friday: Muse or ChatGPT?
Forecast before the AIs
Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Which is more popular on iPhones on Friday: Muse or ChatGPT?
We’ll know the answer
Muse — 6 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳StepFun🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳Z.ai🇨🇳Kimi
Claude: Muse sits second in America today; ChatGPT ranks below it.
ChatGPT — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Qwen
Meta: ChatGPT is the helper most people already have and open
We check it on: apps.apple.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: apps.apple.com
The answer is due on Nov 13, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
On Apple's United States top free iPhone apps chart, which ranks higher at 12:00 New York time on Friday, November 13, 2026: Meta's Muse or OpenAI's ChatGPT?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 42 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 214 of the book: 923302670f8f8c3ebb4c0275e38ddb12c74b4ddaae827d778ad520103b5e2abc
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-11-11-220001Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-11-11-220001Z.txt.ots
- The first 214 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 214 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-11-11-220001Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.