From the trend: French AI firm Mistral releases Mistral Large 4 for anyone to download
Will two more companies start offering Mistral's new AI by Wednesday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will two more companies start offering Mistral's new AI by Wednesday?
At the time of the question: 1 company
Why this question: Mistral let anyone download the model, so other firms can now start selling it as an onlin
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳MiMo
Meta: Open weights spread fast and small hosts join OpenRouter quickly
No — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳StepFun🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸ChatGPT
Grok: Hosting a trillion-parameter model needs rare expensive hardware so few will join quickly
We check it on: openrouter.ai
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: openrouter.ai
The answer is due on Nov 4, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
On OpenRouter's page for Mistral Large 4 (openrouter.ai/mistralai/mistral-large-4-0), will at least 2 companies other than Mistral be listed as providers on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 16:00 UTC? Today Mistral is the only one.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 4 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 201 of the book: 4515945ebee0eef693da0f3d8b74de5ac7a5e843a56ae54c68cf82fedc9bb3a4
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-30-180006Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-30-180006Z.txt.ots
- The first 201 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 201 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-30-180006Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.