Querétaro show the biggest overperformance of all (20 points from 13.9–14.1 xPts, on the 16th most valuable squad), but with 10 matches played they fall outside the 11-match minimum, as does América.
Back to the trend of the day: Mexico's second-to-last team hosts a club fighting for the top spots (in Spanish)
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Mexico Liga MX Table 2026: Points vs xG vs Squad Value
Necaxa are 17th with 9 points, yet the chances they create are worth 16.4 expected points; Atlas, their opponent tonight, are 6th on 18 points from just 12.9.
- No. 1: Tigres UANL
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Tigres UANL
Hidden on both measures: Tigres have the 5th most valuable squad (€76–79M) but sit 13th, with 13 points against 16.0–16.3 xPts.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Qwen.In their lists: Claude: 4 · Gemini: 3 · Grok: 4 · DeepSeek: 5 · Qwen: 6
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 4
Tigres hold the 5th-biggest squad (€78.8M) but sit 13th with 13 points. Their xPts of 16.0 suggest the table is hiding their true form, as they have lost 3 points more than expected.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
Ranked 4th in squad value at €63.2M, Tigres are hidden down in 13th place (13 pts) despite posting an expected points total of 18.1 to 19.0.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 4
13th on 13 points despite the fifth-highest squad value (€76.3m) and ClubElo 1675
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 5
Thirteenth on 13 points with a squad worth about €75M — the table hides an underachieving giant.
- Qwenplace 6
5th highest squad value (€76.2m) yielding only 17 points, with xPTS showing they’ve been lucky to avoid a lower spot.
Source ↗
5 AIs put it here - 2
Necaxa
The table hides Necaxa most. They have 9 points against 15.7–16.4 xPts, the biggest shortfall, and conceded 23 goals from 17.4 xGA. Over the last six games: 2 points from 10 xPts.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Qwen.In their lists: Claude: 3 · Gemini: 7 · Grok: 2 · DeepSeek: 10 · Qwen: 4
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 3
Necaxa are 17th with 9 points, but their 16.4 expected points are 5th-best in the league. The 7.4-point gap is the biggest on the board, and they have conceded 23 goals against 17.4 xGA.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 7
Languishing in 17th with 9 points, Necaxa's true process is masked by opponents converting low-probability chances at a league-worst +5.4 post-shot differential.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
17th with only 9 points but roughly 16 xPts (−7.4 gap), the largest underperformance in the league
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 10
Seventeenth on 9 points, but their last-six xPts is 10 — the table hides a team that has been unlucky.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 4
9 points from 12 matches (17th place) despite a mid-table squad value (€38.8m) highlights a severe underperformance in both luck and quality.
Source ↗
5 AIs put it here - 3
Atlas
The table flatters Atlas most. They have 18 points from 12.5–12.9 xPts (+5.1 to +5.5) with a −1 goal difference, and sit 6th on a squad ranked 9th to 15th by value.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Qwen.In their lists: Claude: 1 · Gemini: 2 · Grok: 3 · DeepSeek: 7
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 1
Atlas have 18 points with a goal difference of -1. Their expected points are 12.9, a +5.1 gap, and they are 6th in the table but only 15th by squad value (€32.3M).
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Sitting 6th with 18 points despite a modest €38.5M squad value (12th in the league), Atlas have outperformed their underlying metrics by an unsustainable +4.6 to +5.2 points.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
Sixth on 18 points from a mid-table €49.4m squad while sitting +5.1 to +5.5 above xPts
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 7
Sixth on 18 points with a negative goal difference and a 1,532 Elo — the table is kinder than the numbers.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 4
Pumas UNAM
Pumas' points (13) match their xPts (12.0), but they scored 17 from about 12.4 xG. They also sit 12th on the 7th–8th most valuable squad (€59M).
Included it: Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 7 · Grok: 10 · DeepSeek: 3 · Qwen: 5
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 7
Pumas have the 7th-biggest squad (€58.7M) but sit 12th. Points (13) and xPts (12.0) agree, so the table is not hiding bad luck here, only underperformance of the money.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 10
12th on 13 points yet the biggest overperformance of goals versus xG (+4.6 in one model)
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 3
Twelfth on 13 points, but Squawka's preseason model gave them a 77.4% chance of reaching the Liguilla — the table hides them.
- Qwenplace 5
8th in squad value (€59.2m) but 11th in standings, with xPTS models flagging them as severe underperformers.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 5
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul have the league's best xG (21.5) but are only 7th, with 17 points against 18.6 xPts. Their squad ranks 2nd or 4th by value depending on the snapshot.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Grok.In their lists: Claude: 9 · Gemini: 4 · DeepSeek: 4 · Qwen: 10
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 9
Cruz Azul have the league's best xG (21.5), yet are only 7th with 17 points. They are underrated by the table, but their 22-21 goal ratio shows a leaky defense.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
With a €100.53M payroll (2nd in Mexico), Cruz Azul's 7th-place spot conceals superior underlying generation (20.4 xPts), obscured by an uncharacteristic -3.4 point finishing slump.
- DeepSeekplace 4
Seventh on 17 points with 22 goals scored and 21 conceded — the underlying numbers say they should be higher.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 10
20 points from 11 matches validates their €100.5m squad value, with xPTS confirming they are exactly where money says they should be.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 6
León
León are 5th on 18 points against 14.9–15.5 xPts (+2.5 to +3.1). Value sources disagree, placing their squad 8th (€55.3M) or 10th (€44.1M).
Included it: Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 6 · Grok: 7 · DeepSeek: 8 · Qwen: 8
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 6
León are 5th with 18 points, yet the model gives them 15.5 xPts. Their schedule is hard, so the league's 5th-best record may not hold.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
Fifth on 18 points from a €44.1m squad while overperforming xPts by about 3 points
- DeepSeekplace 8
Fifth on 18 points with a 1,515 Elo and a low squad value — the table flatters them.
- Qwenplace 8
15 points aligns with their 10th-place market value (€44.0m), but xPTS reveals a fortunate goal-difference streak.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 7
FC Juárez
Juárez have 4 points against about 9.5 xPts (one xG source), the 2nd-biggest shortfall. They sit last despite the 11th–12th most valuable squad.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Qwen. Did not include: Gemini, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 5 · Grok: 5 · Qwen: 3
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 5
Juárez have 4 points from 11 games, but even by xG they should have only 9.5. Money is no excuse either: they have the 11th most valuable squad, ahead of 7 other clubs.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
Bottom with 4 points from roughly 9.6 xPts, the second-largest underperformance
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 3
9 points from 11 matches makes them the league’s worst return on investment for a €41.7m squad.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here - 8
Puebla
Puebla are 9th with 15 points from the league-low 10.8 xPts (one xG source, +4.2) on the 2nd-cheapest squad (€21M). Only Juárez allow more xG.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Grok, Qwen.In their lists: Claude: 2 · Gemini: 10 · DeepSeek: 9
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 2
Puebla are 9th with 15 points on the league's 2nd-cheapest squad (€21M), yet only Juárez concede more chances than their 17.3 xGA. Their xPts of 10.8 are the lowest in Liga MX.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
Operating with the division's lowest market value at €21.80M, Puebla's 18th-place basement residency accurately reflects both their budget and league-low 8.4 xPts.
- DeepSeekplace 9
Ninth on 15 points with an Elo of 1,451 — the table is flattering a team that most models had outside the eight.
3 AIs put it here - 9
Santos Laguna
Santos have 13 points against 15.2 xPts, and two trackers agree they scored only 12 goals from about 17.2–17.6 xG. They are 14th on the 11th–12th most valuable squad.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Qwen. Did not include: Gemini, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 8 · Grok: 9 · Qwen: 2
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 8
Santos have 13 points with a goal difference of -4, but their xG says 15.2. They have slightly more underlying quality than the 14th place suggests.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 9
14th on 13 points while creating 5+ more xG than goals scored in several trackers
- Qwenplace 2
15 points from an 11th-valued squad (€43.9m) shows efficient spending, punching above their financial weight.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here - 10
Atlante
Atlante have the cheapest squad (€10–18M) yet sit 16th, above two pricier clubs. Their 11 points against 13.2 xPts (one source) show slight bad luck.
Included it: Claude, Qwen. Did not include: Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 10 · Qwen: 1
What each AI noted 2
2 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
The five most valuable squads on Transfermarkt (América, Cruz Azul, Chivas, Toluca, Tigres) sit 1st, 7th, 4th, 2nd and 13th in the table.
Toluca's 20 points almost match their 20.4 xPts, and their xG difference of +8.7 is the league's best, so their table position is earned.
Squad values move by source and date: Chivas lead TUDN's start-of-season list at €106.1M, while the live Transfermarkt page has América top at €131.18M.
03How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Liga MX Clubs the Table Flatters or Hides: Points vs Expected Points vs Squad Value
2Why this topic
It sets the official table against two independent views of quality, chance creation and squad value, so readers can see which positions are earned and which are borrowed. This is a question fans keep searching long after one round ends.
3Where it applies
Mexico, Liga MX Apertura 2026, clubs with at least 11 matches played
4What we looked at
- Gap between actual points and expected points (xPts) built from xG for and against
- Gap between rank in the points table and rank by squad market value
- Only clubs with at least 11 matches played, so the samples can be compared
- Liga MX table after round 11 (LigaMXSchedule mirror, Sporting News) — Points, goals and matches played; only clubs with 11 matches are ranked
- statz.ai xG / xPts table — xG for and against and expected points per club
- xGscore — A second xG and xPts table, used to give ranges
- Transfermarkt (live club values) — Squad market value and value rank
- Transfermarkt values via TUDN (start of Apertura) — An earlier squad-value snapshot that sometimes ranks clubs differently
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Qwen.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
04Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Atlas
Atlas have 18 points with a goal difference of -1. Their expected points are 12.9, a +5.1 gap, and they are 6th in the table but only 15th by squad value (€32.3M).
Source ↗ - 2Puebla
Puebla are 9th with 15 points on the league's 2nd-cheapest squad (€21M), yet only Juárez concede more chances than their 17.3 xGA. Their xPts of 10.8 are the lowest in Liga MX.
Source ↗ - 3Necaxa
Necaxa are 17th with 9 points, but their 16.4 expected points are 5th-best in the league. The 7.4-point gap is the biggest on the board, and they have conceded 23 goals against 17.4 xGA.
Source ↗ - 4Tigres UANL
Tigres hold the 5th-biggest squad (€78.8M) but sit 13th with 13 points. Their xPts of 16.0 suggest the table is hiding their true form, as they have lost 3 points more than expected.
Source ↗ - 5FC Juárez
Juárez have 4 points from 11 games, but even by xG they should have only 9.5. Money is no excuse either: they have the 11th most valuable squad, ahead of 7 other clubs.
Source ↗ - 6León
León are 5th with 18 points, yet the model gives them 15.5 xPts. Their schedule is hard, so the league's 5th-best record may not hold.
Source ↗ - 7Pumas UNAM
Pumas have the 7th-biggest squad (€58.7M) but sit 12th. Points (13) and xPts (12.0) agree, so the table is not hiding bad luck here, only underperformance of the money.
Source ↗ - 8Santos Laguna
Santos have 13 points with a goal difference of -4, but their xG says 15.2. They have slightly more underlying quality than the 14th place suggests.
Source ↗ - 9Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul have the league's best xG (21.5), yet are only 7th with 17 points. They are underrated by the table, but their 22-21 goal ratio shows a leaky defense.
Source ↗ - 10Atlante
Atlante have the cheapest squad (€10.1M, versus Chivas at €106.1M) yet sit 16th with 11 points. xPts of 13.2 show they are not far from where the table says.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
Querétaro (+5.9) and América (+3.6) show the largest overperformances of all, but both have played only 10 matches. The brief excludes them (minimum 11 matches). With more games, both could enter this list.
Necaxa, who host Atlas tonight, have the 5th-best xPts in the league and the 17th-best points. Atlas, their opponent, show the opposite pattern (+5.1).
Money explains the top of the table only loosely. Chivas (€106.1M) are 4th, América (€103.4M) 1st, and Toluca (€91.3M) 2nd, but Querétaro (€23.5M, 16th by value) are 3rd.
Toluca's points (20) and xPts (20.4) are almost identical, and their xGD of +8.7 is the best in the league. They are the clearest example of a table position that matches the chances created.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1CF América (Mexico, 2026)
Boasting North America's most expensive squad at €131.18M, Las Águilas have underperformed their expected points tally by 4.2 to 5.1 points due to acute finishing variance.
Source ↗ - 2Atlas FC (Mexico, 2026)
Sitting 6th with 18 points despite a modest €38.5M squad value (12th in the league), Atlas have outperformed their underlying metrics by an unsustainable +4.6 to +5.2 points.
Source ↗ - 3Tigres UANL (Mexico, 2026)
Ranked 4th in squad value at €63.2M, Tigres are hidden down in 13th place (13 pts) despite posting an expected points total of 18.1 to 19.0.
Source ↗ - 4CD Cruz Azul (Mexico, 2026)
With a €100.53M payroll (2nd in Mexico), Cruz Azul's 7th-place spot conceals superior underlying generation (20.4 xPts), obscured by an uncharacteristic -3.4 point finishing slump.
- 5Club Tijuana (Xolos) (Mexico, 2026)
Flattered by a +4.8 point surplus over their 14.2 xPts, Xolos sit 5th despite carrying the 14th-ranked squad valuation (€32.10M).
Source ↗ - 6Deportivo Toluca FC (Mexico, 2026)
Second in the table with 20 points, Toluca's elite shooting conversion has outpaced their 17.0 xPts expectation by over three points, punching above their 6th-ranked €54.8M valuation.
Source ↗ - 7Club Necaxa (Mexico, 2026)
Languishing in 17th with 9 points, Necaxa's true process is masked by opponents converting low-probability chances at a league-worst +5.4 post-shot differential.
Source ↗ - 8CF Monterrey (Mexico, 2026)
Rayados' €70.43M squad (3rd in Mexico) sits 10th in points, yet their underlying metrics (16.9 xPts in 10 matches) suggest their table position is a deceptive temporary anomaly.
Source ↗ - 9Atlético de San Luis (Mexico, 2026)
San Luis overperform their 16th-ranked squad valuation (€27.60M) by four places in the table, propped up by a 3.1-point goalkeeping overperformance.
Source ↗ - 10Club Puebla (Mexico, 2026)
Operating with the division's lowest market value at €21.80M, Puebla's 18th-place basement residency accurately reflects both their budget and league-low 8.4 xPts.
What Gemini noticed
The combined squad value of CF América (€131.18M) and Cruz Azul (€100.53M) exceeds the aggregate market value of the bottom seven Liga MX squads combined (€208.7M).
Atlas and Tijuana are the table's two biggest outliers, banking 9.5 combined points above their joint expected points totals through extraordinary shot-stopping streaks.
Tigres UANL's 6-point deficit between actual points (13) and expected points (~19) represents the most severe finishing and goalkeeping misfortune across all 18 clubs through 11 matchweeks.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Querétaro FC
Third on 20 points from a €23.8m squad (16th by value) and +5.9 to +6.1 points above their xPts
Source ↗ - 2Club Necaxa
17th with only 9 points but roughly 16 xPts (−7.4 gap), the largest underperformance in the league
Source ↗ - 3Atlas FC
Sixth on 18 points from a mid-table €49.4m squad while sitting +5.1 to +5.5 above xPts
Source ↗ - 4Tigres UANL
13th on 13 points despite the fifth-highest squad value (€76.3m) and ClubElo 1675
Source ↗ - 5FC Juárez
Bottom with 4 points from roughly 9.6 xPts, the second-largest underperformance
Source ↗ - 6CF Monterrey
10th on 14 points from a €70.4m squad (6th by value) while sitting near or slightly above xPts
Source ↗ - 7Club León
Fifth on 18 points from a €44.1m squad while overperforming xPts by about 3 points
- 8Club América
Leaders on 21 points from the most valuable squad (€131m) but 3–4 points above their xPts in several models
Source ↗ - 9Santos Laguna
14th on 13 points while creating 5+ more xG than goals scored in several trackers
- 10Pumas UNAM
12th on 13 points yet the biggest overperformance of goals versus xG (+4.6 in one model)
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
Querétaro’s 20 points come from a squad valued at just €23.8m—the second-cheapest in the league—while sitting 5–6 points above expected points.
Necaxa’s 9 points are roughly 7 below the ~16 xPts their shot quality has generated, the largest shortfall reported.
The five most valuable squads (América, Cruz Azul, Guadalajara, Toluca, Tigres) occupy positions 1, 7, 4, 2 and 13 respectively.
Pumas have scored about 4.6 more goals than their xG, the largest finishing overperformance.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Querétaro
Third on 20 points from 10 games with an Elo of 1,447 — the table is doing a lot of work.
Source ↗ - 2Monterrey
Tenth on 14 points with a squad worth up to €131M — no club's table position hides more money.
- 3Pumas UNAM
Twelfth on 13 points, but Squawka's preseason model gave them a 77.4% chance of reaching the Liguilla — the table hides them.
- 4Cruz Azul
Seventh on 17 points with 22 goals scored and 21 conceded — the underlying numbers say they should be higher.
Source ↗ - 5Tigres
Thirteenth on 13 points with a squad worth about €75M — the table hides an underachieving giant.
- 6América
Top with 21 points, but it is the lowest leader total after 11 rounds in five years — the table flatters them.
Source ↗ - 7Atlas
Sixth on 18 points with a negative goal difference and a 1,532 Elo — the table is kinder than the numbers.
Source ↗ - 8León
Fifth on 18 points with a 1,515 Elo and a low squad value — the table flatters them.
- 9Puebla
Ninth on 15 points with an Elo of 1,451 — the table is flattering a team that most models had outside the eight.
- 10Necaxa
Seventeenth on 9 points, but their last-six xPts is 10 — the table hides a team that has been unlucky.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
Necaxa's last-six xPts (10) is five times their actual points (2) — the biggest underperformance in the league.
Querétaro are third with 20 points despite an Elo of 1,447, lower than 13th-placed Tigres (1,522) and 17th-placed Necaxa (1,433).
Transfermarkt's squad-value figures swing by source and date: América is quoted at €101M, $140M and $144.56M in different 2026 updates.
América's 21 points is the lowest for a leader after 11 rounds since Apertura 2021, when América also led with 22 — the table is flattering the leaders.
🇨🇳 Qwen10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Qwen alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Atlante
12 points from 12 matches with the league’s cheapest squad (€17.6m) defies all financial logic.
Source ↗ - 2Santos Laguna
15 points from an 11th-valued squad (€43.9m) shows efficient spending, punching above their financial weight.
Source ↗ - 3Juárez
9 points from 11 matches makes them the league’s worst return on investment for a €41.7m squad.
Source ↗ - 4Necaxa
9 points from 12 matches (17th place) despite a mid-table squad value (€38.8m) highlights a severe underperformance in both luck and quality.
Source ↗ - 5Pumas
8th in squad value (€59.2m) but 11th in standings, with xPTS models flagging them as severe underperformers.
Source ↗ - 6Tigres
5th highest squad value (€76.2m) yielding only 17 points, with xPTS showing they’ve been lucky to avoid a lower spot.
Source ↗ - 7Pachuca
13 points in 11 matches hides a strong underlying xPTS profile that suggests they are much better than 12th place.
Source ↗ - 8León
15 points aligns with their 10th-place market value (€44.0m), but xPTS reveals a fortunate goal-difference streak.
Source ↗ - 9Tijuana
17 points from 11 matches perfectly bridges their 7th-place market value (€63.2m) and expected points.
Source ↗ - 10Cruz Azul
20 points from 11 matches validates their €100.5m squad value, with xPTS confirming they are exactly where money says they should be.
Source ↗
What Qwen noticed
Atlante and Santos Laguna are punching significantly above their financial weight, combining for 27 points despite having the 18th and 11th most expensive squads in the league.
Juárez and Pumas represent the league's biggest financial disappointments, holding high market values (€41.7m and €59.2m) while sitting in the bottom four of the standings.