Back to the trend of the day: Extra resale price for Apple's iPhone Duo falls to about 3,000 yuan (in Chinese)
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day

iPhone Duo Resale Price vs Hardest-to-Get Launches 2026

Within about two days of pre-orders opening on 16 October, the iPhone Duo's resale premium in China fell from 6,000–10,000 yuan to about 3,000, while a new Apple order placed on 17 October was dated 25 January 2027.

  • No. 1: Huawei Mate XT tri-fold (2024)
  • 10 places

01Final list

The leading AIs built their own top-ten lists independently. Above is one combined result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, the AIs that included it and, where the AIs gave one, a source.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

  1. 1

    Huawei Mate XT tri-fold (2024)

    Asks of 60,000–70,000 yuan on a 19,999 list, and 6.85M sign-ups. How fast the premium fell is disputed: 2,000–3,000 by 24 Sept (Zaobao), or under 10,000 after two weeks (Jiemian).

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 4 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 2 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 5 · Qwen: 2

    What each AI noted 7
    • Claudeplace 1

      Resale reached 60,000–70,000 yuan against a 19,999-yuan list price, and the premium reportedly fell below 10,000 yuan in about two weeks.

      Source ↗
    • ChatGPTplace 4

      More than six million reservations were reported, but reservations do not establish how many buyers paid or received a phone.

    • Grokplace 2

      About 6.85 million sign-ups against a dealer’s figure of roughly 100,000 phones, and day-before asks of 60,000–100,000 yuan on a 19,999 yuan list.

    • Geminiplace 2

      A stratospheric ¥50,000 opening markup was halved by Sunday evening as realistic retail buyers refused scalper extortion.

    • Kimiplace 2

      6.3 million reservations against ~1 million units: the only launch on the list whose 200-250% premium was pure, months-long arithmetic.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 5

      The first tri-fold hit a 400% premium and then lost almost all of it in four days — the fastest collapse of a five-figure premium in the set.

    • Qwenplace 2

      Resale prices doubled instantly and held firm for weeks, reflecting genuine tri-fold production constraints rather than scalper hype.

      Source ↗
    7 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  2. 2

    Apple iPhone Duo (China, 2026)

    The premium fell from 6,000–10,000 to about 3,000 yuan in two days, yet Apple dates new orders to 22–25 January 2027, the longest official wait on this list.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 1 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 1 · Kimi: 5 · DeepSeek: 6 · Qwen: 1

    What each AI noted 7
    • Claudeplace 2

      Dewu showed a gap of about 62% on the 256GB, yet reseller offers fell to about 3,000 yuan within two days while Apple's wait stayed near 98 days.

      Source ↗
    • ChatGPTplace 1

      A reported ¥6,000–¥10,000 initial premium had become about ¥3,000 by October 19, before official sales began.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 4

      The official wait stretched past three months in the same two days that the extra price fell from roughly 6,000–10,000 yuan toward 3,000.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 1

      Resale premiums collapsed by 70% from ¥10,000 to ¥3,000 in under 48 hours even as Apple's official wait stayed pegged at 35 days.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 5

      Premium down ~95% in 72 hours (58,000-yuan peak asks to ~3,000) while Apple's own queue grew to 95 days — the brand priced night one; the queue prices it now.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 6

      A 58,000 yuan peak premium turned into a 3,000 yuan premium in about a month, while the official queue stretched to 95 days — a long wait did not protect the resale price.

      Source ↗
    • Qwenplace 1

      Peak 10,000-yuan premium collapsed to 3,000 yuan in 72 hours, proving the launch was hype-driven, not supply-constrained.

      Source ↗
    7 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  3. 3

    Sony PlayStation 5 (2020)

    The premium never fell: +55% on StockX on day one and still about +60% in May 2021. China imports traded near double list until Sony's China launch six months later.

    Included it: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Wenxin.

    In their lists: ChatGPT: 9 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 6 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: 1 · Qwen: 10

    What each AI noted 6
    • ChatGPTplace 9

      The device fits the decade and public pre-order requirement, but the requested China resale-by-day evidence was not verified here.

    • Grokplace 1

      StockX’s premium did not fall: about +55% in the first 24 hours, about +80% three weeks later, and still about +60% in May 2021.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 6

      A stubborn 110% markup held for two straight weeks because genuine global silicon yields were physically strangled.

    • Kimiplace 6

      A console China waited six extra months for: grey imports at 5,000+ yuan — nearly double — defined the 2020 holiday season.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 1

      The premium did not fall in 72 hours — it took months, because the console was genuinely short of supply, not just short of launch-day stock.

    • Qwenplace 10

      The quintessential shortage launch, where 100%+ resale premiums persisted for over a year due to semiconductor constraints, not just hype.

      Source ↗
    6 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  4. 4

    Apple iPhone X (2017)

    Taobao asks of about double list (19,700 against 9,688 yuan) eased within about two weeks. Apple's wait is quoted as 3–4 weeks by one source and 5–6 weeks by another.

    Included it: Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Kimi, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Claude: 3 · Gemini: 3 · DeepSeek: 7

    What each AI noted 3
    • Claudeplace 3

      Taobao sellers asked 19,700 yuan for a 9,688-yuan phone, and some Beijing resellers cancelled once they expected plentiful supply.

    • Geminiplace 3

      Early ¥3,500 scalper margins vanished into zero-profit territory within 48 hours as Foxconn stepped up daily air freight.

    • DeepSeekplace 7

      In 2017 a 138% premium lasted about two weeks, and Apple's own delivery estimate was only 3–4 weeks — the template for every later iPhone queue.

      Source ↗
    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  5. 5

    Apple iPhone 14 Pro Max (2022)

    Up to 4,000 yuan over list on launch morning (a scalper called that unrealistic), down to 200–300 by 19 September, while Apple still quoted late October to early November.

    Included it: Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Kimi, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Grok: 7 · Gemini: 4 · DeepSeek: 9

    What each AI noted 3
    • Grokplace 7

      A morning premium of up to about 4,000 yuan was a few hundred yuan by evening, while Apple’s site still said late October or early November.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 4

      Scalpers holding Deep Purple units dumped inventory at a ¥200 loss by Sunday evening after opening day at +¥2,000.

    • DeepSeekplace 9

      A 4,000 yuan premium on day one was down to a few hundred yuan by the first weekend — the fastest premium collapse in the iPhone set until the iPhone Duo.

    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  6. 6

    Huawei Mate X2 (2021)

    Estimate, with one source for the fall: still 8,000–10,000 yuan over its 17,999 list after the first weekend and about 5,000 by day ten, with 3.75 million registered.

    Included it: Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: 4

    What each AI noted 2
    • Kimiplace 3

      Sanctions-era scarcity made it a $3,000-premium brick of titanium and Kirin — the template every later Chinese flagship premium followed.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 4

      Premiums of 12,000–32,000 yuan over the 17,999 yuan list price lasted about ten days, not 72 hours — a real supply shortage, but shorter than the Mate X.

    2 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  7. 7

    Huawei Mate X (2019)

    Single-source asking prices: over 100,000 yuan on a 16,999 list, and still 60,000–80,000 days later. Gemini puts the peak at only +35,000, so the figures are unconfirmed.

    Included it: Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Kimi, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Gemini: 8 · DeepSeek: 3

    What each AI noted 2
    • Geminiplace 8

      Extreme screen yield scarcity preserved a +150% markup for an entire month during China's first commercial folding experiment.

    • DeepSeekplace 3

      The first Huawei foldable was quoted at more than 100,000 yuan against a 16,999 yuan list price — a 488% peak premium — before falling by more than half within days.

    2 AIs put it here
    no source given
  8. 8

    Apple Vision Pro (2024)

    No China shop for five months: grey-market asks of 36,000–40,000 yuan in February eased to about 27,000 within a month, and the official price came in June at 29,999.

    Included it: Grok, Qwen. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Grok: 8 · Qwen: 8

    What each AI noted 2
    • Grokplace 8

      Asks near 36,000–40,000 yuan in the first days, then grey-market stock near 27,000 yuan within a month, before China even had a shop price.

    • Qwenplace 8

      Initial 30% scalper premiums vanished within the first weekend as Apple's direct shipping estimates remained stable at 3–4 weeks.

      Source ↗
    2 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  9. 9

    Apple iPhone 17 Pro Max (2025)

    Single report: the orange 256GB Dewu quote fell from 11,999 to 10,600 yuan by 3 p.m. on launch day, leaving a premium of about 600.

    Included it: ChatGPT. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: ChatGPT: 2

    What each AI noted 1
    • ChatGPTplace 2

      Dewu-tracked premium on the orange 256GB version fell from about ¥2,000 to ¥600 on launch day.

      Source ↗
    1 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  10. 10

    NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090 (China, 2022)

    Nearly 60,000 JD reservations for a first batch a forum counted at roughly 160–209 cards (estimate), yet China's markup was about 1,000 yuan and was being talked down within a week.

    Included it: Grok. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Grok: 6

    What each AI noted 1
    • Grokplace 6

      About 60,000 people on one JD queue for a card dealers thought arrived in the low hundreds, and the markup was already being talked down within a week.

      Source ↗
    1 AIs put it here
    Source ↗

More about the top three ↓

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

The three are not measured the same way. The Mate XT and iPhone Duo figures are Chinese resale asks against list price, while the PS5 figure is a StockX percentage in 2020–21. How fast the Mate XT's premium fell is also disputed.

1Huawei Mate XT tri-fold (2024)

No. 1 — Huawei Mate XT tri-fold (2024). On the lists of 7 of 9 AIs; median place there: 2. Its resale asks were the biggest by far, and the premium held for weeks, though the AIs disagree on how fast it fell.

2024-01-01 new-year-illustration
David Revoy · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • The Mate XT folds one panel outward and the other inward, in a Z shape. Huawei says it is the first inward-folding phone with no gaps. It took five years to build, and it opens from a 6.4-inch phone to a 10.2-inch tablet.

    Source ↗
What it is
Huawei's three-screen folding phone, launched in 2024 at 19,999 yuan.
Its edge
Biggest markup of the three: asks of 60,000–70,000 yuan on a 19,999 list.
Who should know
Useful to know for anyone curious how wild scalper prices get for a rare new gadget.
  • Resale premium over list priceAsks 60,000–70,000 yuan

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • Scalpers asked up to $10,000 for the Mate XT. BGR calls that more than triple the official price, which was about $2,800–$3,000. This is the biggest markup in the top three. — BGR

    Source ↗
History

  • Huawei's Yu Chengdong said at the September 2024 launch that it took five years to solve the tri-fold's problems and reach mass production. The Mate XT started at 19,999 yuan for 256GB.

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • The 6.3 million Vmall reservations (other counts are higher) were no-deposit sign-ups, not paid pre-orders. They show interest more than real demand, so be careful comparing them with supply.

    Source ↗

  • The phone can't run Google's version of Android, and BGR says a screen repair would cost about $1,000. It's also unclear whether it will ever launch outside China.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Read the launch article for the price: 19,999 yuan for the 256GB model, with three screens (6.4, 7.9 and 10.2 inches). Look at that first, then check the later 2,000-yuan price cut reported elsewhere.

    Source ↗

Video: 2024, in 4 minutes · Vox

Compare the top three ↓

2Apple iPhone Duo (China, 2026)

No. 2 — Apple iPhone Duo (China, 2026). On the lists of 7 of 9 AIs; median place there: 2. Its resale premium dropped fast, but Apple's own order wait is the longest on the list, so demand outlasted the resale spike.

Did you know

  • Before pre-sales even opened, iPhone Duo orders reportedly changed hands at around 49,999 yuan, about 34,000 yuan above the 15,999 yuan starting price. Agents also advertised "snatch" services, and some brokers kept an 800 yuan deposit if you cancelled.

    Source ↗
What it is
Apple's first foldable iPhone, sold in China from 16 October 2026 at 15,999 yuan.
Its edge
Longest official wait: new orders were dated to January 2027.
Who should know
Useful to know for anyone wondering whether a long wait keeps resale prices high. Here it did not.
  • Resale premium over list priceAbout 3,000 yuan over list
Why it is here

  • One seller cut the asking markup on the iPhone Duo from 6,000 to 3,000 yuan, a 50% cut. This was days after pre-orders opened on 16 October. The list price in China is 15,999 yuan. — ZeroHedge

    Source ↗
History

  • Apple's first foldable iPhone sold out in China soon after pre-orders opened on October 16, 2026. By the next Saturday, Apple's China site showed a January 22, 2027 ship date for new orders.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Read the delivery dates for China pre-orders. Apple's site showed 22 January 2027, and the Tmall store showed 23 January. Check the date first, then see whether it moved.

    Source ↗
ChatGPT, Gemini, Qwen put it first. What they saw in it

  • ChatGPT: A reported ¥6,000–¥10,000 initial premium had become about ¥3,000 by October 19, before official sales began.

  • Gemini: Resale premiums collapsed by 70% from ¥10,000 to ¥3,000 in under 48 hours even as Apple's official wait stayed pegged at 35 days.

  • Qwen: Peak 10,000-yuan premium collapsed to 3,000 yuan in 72 hours, proving the launch was hype-driven, not supply-constrained.

Compare the top three ↓

3Sony PlayStation 5 (2020)

No. 3 — Sony PlayStation 5 (2020). On the lists of 6 of 9 AIs; median place there: 6. Its premium never collapsed. A real shortage kept resale prices high for months, not just launch week.

2020 happy-new-year
David Revoy · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
What it is
Sony's PlayStation 5 console, launched in late 2020 during a chip shortage.
Its edge
Its premium lasted longest: still about +60% in May 2021.
Who should know
Useful to know for anyone who wants to see how a real shortage differs from launch hype.
  • Resale premium over list price+55% day one, +60% May 2021

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Grok, DeepSeek put it first. What they saw in it

  • Grok: StockX’s premium did not fall: about +55% in the first 24 hours, about +80% three weeks later, and still about +60% in May 2021.

  • DeepSeek: The premium did not fall in 72 hours — it took months, because the console was genuinely short of supply, not just short of launch-day stock.

Video: 2020, in 7 minutes · Vox

Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

Huawei Mate XT tri-fold (2024)Apple iPhone Duo (China, 2026)Sony PlayStation 5 (2020)
In the AIs' lists7 / 97 / 96 / 9
Resale premium over list priceAsks 60,000–70,000 yuanAbout 3,000 yuan over list+55% day one, +60% May 2021
Put first byClaudeChatGPT, Gemini, QwenGrok, DeepSeek

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

More ratings

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

A long Apple date and a high scalper price are no longer the same fact. The Duo's date moved into January 2027 while its premium fell toward 3,000 yuan; the PS5 was still about +60% six months after launch.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

There is no single figure for the Duo's first batch: about 1 million worldwide (Mong Kok traders), 0.5–1 million assembled in Q3 (Kuo), and 100,000–200,000 for China (supply-chain reports). The 200,000 figure was not found on any page the AIs opened.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

Reservations are not orders. The Mate XT's 6.85 million free sign-ups were set against about 100,000 dealer units, and JD's Duo count is published as just over 2 million and as 3.095 million.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Kimi. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

The comparison case: the iPhone 18 Pro was reported 900 yuan below list before release, and recent Pro Max launch premiums were only 700–800 yuan.

Noticed by:
Included it: Grok. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

The RTX 4090's well-known China price of 25,000–30,000 yuan came from an October 2023 export-rule spike a year after launch. In launch week the ask was about 1,000 yuan over 12,999.

Noticed by:
Included it: Grok. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

04How we counted

In plain words, no formulas.

1The question

Top 10 Hardest-to-Get Tech Launches: How Fast the Resale Premium Fell Against How Long the Official Wait Stayed

2Why this topic

Combining resale price paths with official waiting times shows that a high premium alone does not prove scarcity, and places the iPhone Duo among earlier launches on that basis.

3Where it applies

Global consumer phones and devices of the last 10 years with a public pre-order window, with China as the main resale market

4What we looked at

  • Peak resale premium over the shop price, as a percentage, in the first 24–48 hours of pre-orders
  • Percentage fall in that premium within 72 hours and on the first weekend
  • Official delivery wait in days at the moment the premium fell
  • Reported first-batch supply compared with pre-order demand, with conflicting estimates shown side by side
  • StockX via Business Insider — Completed PS5 resale prices from launch day to May 2021
  • Dewu (Poizon) completed sales — Completed iPhone Duo resale prices by version on pre-order night
  • 36Kr citing Kuaikeji — Day-by-day iPhone Duo asking premium, 6,000–10,000 yuan down to about 3,000
  • Apple China delivery checks — Delivery date for a new order while the premium fell

5Who ranked

The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.

6How the places were set

The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.

05Each AI's own list

🇺🇸 Claude7 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Huawei Mate XT tri-fold (2024)

    Resale reached 60,000–70,000 yuan against a 19,999-yuan list price, and the premium reportedly fell below 10,000 yuan in about two weeks.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Apple iPhone Duo (China, October 2026)

    Dewu showed a gap of about 62% on the 256GB, yet reseller offers fell to about 3,000 yuan within two days while Apple's wait stayed near 98 days.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Apple iPhone X (China, 2017)

    Taobao sellers asked 19,700 yuan for a 9,688-yuan phone, and some Beijing resellers cancelled once they expected plentiful supply.

  4. 4
    Huawei Mate 60 Pro (2023)

    A 6,999-yuan phone sold for 8,000–8,400 yuan on the street, so the supply shortage was real even though the premium was small.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8 / Fold8 Ultra (2026)

    This was a supply squeeze without a resale frenzy: 1TB models slipped 1–3 weeks, and Samsung reportedly added 1 million units of output.

  6. 6
    Nintendo Switch 2 (Hong Kong, 2025)

    A retailer blog claims a 40–50% local markup because Nintendo reportedly prioritised US stock, but I could not verify this.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Huawei Mate XT2 tri-fold (2026)

    A repeat of the 19,999-yuan tri-fold with no premium data published yet, so it is the open question on this list.

    Source ↗

What Claude noticed

The iPhone Duo's premium has fallen faster than the 2024 Mate XT's did, but its official wait is far longer. That points to hype on the resale side more than a true shortage, though the first-batch supply range is wide.

Source ↗

Most real shortages show a premium that lasts, as with the Mate 60 Pro in 2023 where Huaqiangbei merchants expected it to hold. A quick fall suggests buyers expect plentiful supply, as in 2017 when Beijing resellers cancelled iPhone X pre-orders.

Source ↗

The Mate XT showed how large the gap can be: about 200–250% over list in the first days, with 6.3 million no-deposit reservations on Vmall.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Apple iPhone Duo (2026)

    A reported ¥6,000–¥10,000 initial premium had become about ¥3,000 by October 19, before official sales began.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Apple iPhone 17 Pro Max, China (2025)

    Dewu-tracked premium on the orange 256GB version fell from about ¥2,000 to ¥600 on launch day.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Apple iPhone 17 series, China (2025)

    JD reservations reportedly exceeded two million, while the cited Dewu day-one example shed ¥1,399 from its initial resale quote by mid-afternoon.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Huawei Mate XT Ultimate Design (2024)

    More than six million reservations were reported, but reservations do not establish how many buyers paid or received a phone.

  5. 5
    Huawei Mate XTs Ultimate Design (2025)

    Its launch reporting described online and offline queues and fast sell-outs, but the accessible sources do not quantify the resale-premium decay.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Samsung Galaxy Z TriFold (South Korea launch, 2025)

    The launch price is reported at KRW 3,594,000, but the cited comparison says China launch timing was then unconfirmed.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Apple iPhone 16 series, China (2024)

    The supplied October 2026 brief’s headline refers to iPhone 16, but its body describes the iPhone Duo, a material headline/body mismatch.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Nintendo Switch 2 (global launch, 2025)

    No China-centered, day-by-day completed resale and official wait series was verified in the sources located for this ranking.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Sony PlayStation 5 (global launch, 2020)

    The device fits the decade and public pre-order requirement, but the requested China resale-by-day evidence was not verified here.

  10. 10
    Microsoft Xbox Series X (global launch, 2020)

    Its pre-order window and launch are public, but comparable China completed-sale premium and wait data were not verified.

What ChatGPT noticed

The iPhone Duo’s quoted premium fell to about ¥3,000 by October 19, but the phone was not scheduled to go on sale until October 23; a premium decline can happen before official delivery starts.

Source ↗

The iPhone 17 Pro Max orange 256GB example lost ¥1,399 from its reported ¥11,999 resale quote by 3 p.m. on launch day, showing how quickly a launch-day premium can erode within a single configuration.

Source ↗

Reservation totals are weak substitutes for pre-order demand: the iPhone 17 figure is JD reservations, and the Mate XT figure is reported reservations. Neither alone establishes paid demand or first-batch shortfall.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    PlayStation 5 (2020)

    StockX’s premium did not fall: about +55% in the first 24 hours, about +80% three weeks later, and still about +60% in May 2021.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Huawei Mate XT Ultimate (China, 2024)

    About 6.85 million sign-ups against a dealer’s figure of roughly 100,000 phones, and day-before asks of 60,000–100,000 yuan on a 19,999 yuan list.

  3. 3
    Huawei Mate X5 (China, 2023)

    After the 12,999 yuan price was finally published, resale quotes were still 4,000–6,500 yuan over it, and most shops still had nothing to sell.

  4. 4
    Apple iPhone Duo (China, 2026)

    The official wait stretched past three months in the same two days that the extra price fell from roughly 6,000–10,000 yuan toward 3,000.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Huawei Mate 60 Pro (China, 2023)

    Gone in one minute at 6,999 yuan, a month’s wait at a Shanghai shop, and a scalper premium that was already down to 200–300 yuan.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090 Founders Edition (China, 2022)

    About 60,000 people on one JD queue for a card dealers thought arrived in the low hundreds, and the markup was already being talked down within a week.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    iPhone 14 Pro Max (China, 2022)

    A morning premium of up to about 4,000 yuan was a few hundred yuan by evening, while Apple’s site still said late October or early November.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Apple Vision Pro (US launch, China resale, 2024)

    Asks near 36,000–40,000 yuan in the first days, then grey-market stock near 27,000 yuan within a month, before China even had a shop price.

  9. 9
    iPhone 16 Pro Max and iPhone 15 Pro Max (China)

    The two launches Chinese dealers now use as the baseline: a first-day premium of only about 700–800 yuan.

  10. 10
    iPhone 18 Pro (China, 2026)

    The control case: dealers say it was already 900 yuan under list before it went on sale.

What Grok noticed

A long Apple date and a high scalper price are no longer the same fact. On the iPhone Duo, the date moved into January 2027 while the extra money fell toward 3,000 yuan. On the PlayStation 5, the extra money was still about 60% six months after launch.

Source ↗

Huawei showed it could kill a premium without filling every shop. Mate 60 Pro premiums were reported at 200–300 yuan within days once phones had to be activated in the store, even while a Shanghai shop still quoted a month’s wait.

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🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Apple iPhone Duo (October 2026)

    Resale premiums collapsed by 70% from ¥10,000 to ¥3,000 in under 48 hours even as Apple's official wait stayed pegged at 35 days.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Huawei Mate XT Ultimate Design (September 2024)

    A stratospheric ¥50,000 opening markup was halved by Sunday evening as realistic retail buyers refused scalper extortion.

  3. 3
    Apple iPhone X (November 2017)

    Early ¥3,500 scalper margins vanished into zero-profit territory within 48 hours as Foxconn stepped up daily air freight.

  4. 4
    Apple iPhone 14 Pro Max (September 2022)

    Scalpers holding Deep Purple units dumped inventory at a ¥200 loss by Sunday evening after opening day at +¥2,000.

  5. 5
    Huawei Mate 60 Pro (September 2023)

    Unannounced pioneer drops created a resilient ¥2,500 markup that took over 10 days to decline as national pride fueled sustained queues.

  6. 6
    Sony PlayStation 5 (November 2020 China Import Wave)

    A stubborn 110% markup held for two straight weeks because genuine global silicon yields were physically strangled.

  7. 7
    Apple iPhone 15 Pro Max (September 2023)

    Titanium hype evaporated over a single Saturday as e-commerce subsidy platforms offered instant coupon parity.

  8. 8
    Huawei Mate X (November 2019)

    Extreme screen yield scarcity preserved a +150% markup for an entire month during China's first commercial folding experiment.

  9. 9
    Apple iPhone 7 Plus Jet Black (September 2016)

    Severe anodization polishing bottlenecks caused a 50% opening spike before secondary colors liquidated the bubble.

  10. 10
    NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 (September 2020 China DIY Launch)

    A rare hardware launch where resale premiums rose instead of falling after 72 hours, defying standard consumer electronics curves.

What Gemini noticed

The speed of the premium collapse reveals whether a shortage is structural or speculative: devices with genuine component bottlenecks (Mate XT, PS5, RTX 3080) retained premiums for weeks, whereas Apple hardware seeing fast carrier allocation drops 70–90% of markup within 72 hours.

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🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5090 (2025-26)

    The launch whose premium never fell: still ~$3,500-3,800 in China 15 months after a $1,999 MSRP — a component famine, not a hype cycle.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Huawei Mate XT tri-fold (China, 2024)

    6.3 million reservations against ~1 million units: the only launch on the list whose 200-250% premium was pure, months-long arithmetic.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Huawei Mate X2 (China, 2021)

    Sanctions-era scarcity made it a $3,000-premium brick of titanium and Kirin — the template every later Chinese flagship premium followed.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Huawei Mate X3 (China, 2023)

    The thinnest foldable of its year held a 5,000-yuan premium for months — worth more sealed than open, the 'electronic Maotai' era's peak.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Apple iPhone Duo (China, 2026)

    Premium down ~95% in 72 hours (58,000-yuan peak asks to ~3,000) while Apple's own queue grew to 95 days — the brand priced night one; the queue prices it now.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Sony PlayStation 5 (2020)

    A console China waited six extra months for: grey imports at 5,000+ yuan — nearly double — defined the 2020 holiday season.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Huawei Mate 60 Pro (China, 2023)

    Sold out in one minute — then Huawei simply built 12 million in a year and the scalpers starved; the fastest supply fix of any phone on this list.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Nintendo Switch 2 (2025)

    Nintendo's invite-only first wave strangled the scalpers at birth: +89% on day one, gone within weeks, 23.7 million sold by September 2026.

  9. 9
    Huawei Mate X5 (China, 2023)

    The foldable whose premium was real but brief: seconds-long pre-sale sellouts in September, an official 19% price cut by late 2024.

  10. 10
    Nintendo Switch 2 Zelda 40th Anniversary Edition (2026)

    A cosmetic console sold out in four hours at +73% — buyers paying 19x Nintendo's own $20 Triforce markup, with a known restock end date.

    Source ↗

What Kimi noticed

The iPhone Duo is the only launch where the premium died faster than the queue: -94% in 72 hours while Apple's delivery estimate stretched to January 22, 2027 — night one was priced by the brand, this week is priced by the calendar.

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The Mate XT and the RTX 5090 show what a real shortage looks like: premiums of 200-250% that persisted for months — 6.3M reservations vs ~1M units for Huawei, Blackwell yield losses plus datacenter priority for Nvidia.

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Nintendo cracked the code: an invite-only, one-per-account, non-transferable first wave for the Switch 2, plus a deliberate supply flood — the +89% launch premium was dead within weeks and 23.68M consoles were sold by September 2026.

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In China, grey-market distance multiplies premiums: PS5 imports ran at nearly double RRP for six months before Sony's official China launch, and the RTX 5090 still carries an ~80% China premium 15 months on — geography itself is a scalper.

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🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Sony PS5 (global, 2020)

    The premium did not fall in 72 hours — it took months, because the console was genuinely short of supply, not just short of launch-day stock.

  2. 2
    Valve Steam Deck (global, 2022)

    A 2,599 yuan handheld sold for 7,000–8,000 yuan for months — the premium barely moved in the first weekend because there was no official China channel at all.

  3. 3
    Huawei Mate X (China, 2019)

    The first Huawei foldable was quoted at more than 100,000 yuan against a 16,999 yuan list price — a 488% peak premium — before falling by more than half within days.

  4. 4
    Huawei Mate X2 (China, 2021)

    Premiums of 12,000–32,000 yuan over the 17,999 yuan list price lasted about ten days, not 72 hours — a real supply shortage, but shorter than the Mate X.

  5. 5
    Huawei Mate XT (China, 2024)

    The first tri-fold hit a 400% premium and then lost almost all of it in four days — the fastest collapse of a five-figure premium in the set.

  6. 6
    iPhone Duo (China, 2026)

    A 58,000 yuan peak premium turned into a 3,000 yuan premium in about a month, while the official queue stretched to 95 days — a long wait did not protect the resale price.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    iPhone X (global, 2017)

    In 2017 a 138% premium lasted about two weeks, and Apple's own delivery estimate was only 3–4 weeks — the template for every later iPhone queue.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Samsung Galaxy Fold (China, 2019)

    The first mainstream foldable carried a premium of several thousand yuan but never approached the Huawei tri-fold's numbers, and it fell below list price within weeks.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    iPhone 14 Pro Max (China, 2022)

    A 4,000 yuan premium on day one was down to a few hundred yuan by the first weekend — the fastest premium collapse in the iPhone set until the iPhone Duo.

  10. 10
    AirPods Pro (global, 2019)

    A 20% premium on a 1,999 yuan accessory looked modest, but the official wait ran into the next year — a real shortage hidden inside a small-ticket product.

    Source ↗

What DeepSeek noticed

iPhone X's 2017 premium normalised in about two weeks with a 3–4 week official wait; the iPhone Duo's premium fell faster (about 48 hours to 7,143 yuan) while its wait is longer (95 days), so the relationship between queue length and resale premium has weakened.

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🇨🇳 Qwen10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Qwen alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Apple iPhone Duo (2026)

    Peak 10,000-yuan premium collapsed to 3,000 yuan in 72 hours, proving the launch was hype-driven, not supply-constrained.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Huawei Mate XT (2024)

    Resale prices doubled instantly and held firm for weeks, reflecting genuine tri-fold production constraints rather than scalper hype.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Apple iPhone 18 Pro Max (2026)

    Specific colors like Burgundy attracted a 27.3% Dewu premium within 4 hours, but fell to single digits by the first weekend.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    NVIDIA GPUs in China (2026)

    Trade restrictions, not consumer hype, drive these resale premiums, causing graphics cards to trade and appreciate like real estate.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 (2026)

    Despite selling three times better than the Z Fold 7, scaled production prevented any significant resale premium from forming.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Xiaomi 18 Fold (2026)

    Strategically launched two days before Apple's foldable, its 10,999 yuan price anchored the market, keeping resale premiums below 5%.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Tesla Cybertruck Founder's Series (2023)

    Massive initial premiums collapsed within weeks as production scaled and non-founder versions were announced, deflating the exclusivity.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Apple Vision Pro (2024)

    Initial 30% scalper premiums vanished within the first weekend as Apple's direct shipping estimates remained stable at 3–4 weeks.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Meta Ray-Ban Smart Glasses (2024)

    Unexpected viral demand for AI features caused a brief 20% premium, which evaporated in 72 hours as Meta expedited shipping.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Sony PlayStation 5 (2020)

    The quintessential shortage launch, where 100%+ resale premiums persisted for over a year due to semiconductor constraints, not just hype.

    Source ↗

What Qwen noticed

The speed of premium collapse is the ultimate indicator of real supply: the iPhone Duo's premium fell by over 50% in 72 hours, whereas the Huawei Mate XT's premium held firm due to genuine tri-fold production constraints.

Source ↗

NVIDIA GPUs in China operate under a different dynamic, where resale premiums are driven by geopolitical export restrictions rather than consumer hype, causing prices to behave like real estate.

Source ↗