Back to the trend of the day: A Korean film star is tipped for an Oscar nomination (in Korean)

Poly Rating · from the trend of the day

Best Actress Oscar 2027 Predictions: Prizes vs Odds

Juries at Berlin, Cannes and Venice gave this season's actress prizes to Sandra Hüller, Virginie Efira and Mathilde Arcel, and Korean critics gave theirs to Jeon Do-yeon, yet Gold Derby's favourite, Julianne Moore at 94–95.5%, has won no competitive acting prize.

No. 1: Julianne Moore, The Debut
10 places
Current as of October 26, 2026, 04:34 EDT

01Final list

The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

1
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Leads Gold Derby at 94–95.5% and Kalshi at 88%, with no Cannes, Venice or Berlin acting prize. Her place rests on the odds alone.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Nemotron.
In their lists: Claude: 3 · ChatGPT: 1 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 1 · Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 1 · Qwen: 1
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 3
  She leads the odds at 95.5% (100% a month earlier) without a single major prize listed here, so her place rests on the odds alone.
  Source ↗
- ChatGPTplace 1
  The strongest forecast signal in the material found: Awards Daily said Moore was Gold Derby’s lead, while emphasizing that this was still an early, changeable race.
  Source ↗
- Grokplace 1
  94% of Gold Derby to be nominated, and 92% of its experts already pick her to win — with no Cannes, Venice or Berlin acting prize.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 1
  Holds 72% of top-tier pundit number-one picks with a studio campaign budget doubling any competitor.
- Kimiplace 1
  94.0% nomination odds plus Variety's predicted-winner slot make her the market-and-editorial double leader.
  Source ↗
- DeepSeekplace 1
  Gold Derby’s combined odds give her a 100% chance of a nomination — the only contender at that ceiling — yet she has not won a major critics’ prize this season.
  Source ↗
- Qwenplace 1
  A 94.1% Gold Derby frontrunner whose campaign reach effortlessly turns an indie musical into a Hollywood staple.
  Source ↗
7 AIs put it here
Source ↗
2
Jeon Do-yeon, Possible Love
Korean critics' best actress, on a Venice Silver Lion film rated 100% from 56 reviews. Still outside Gold Derby's top five, and no Korean actress has a lead nomination.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Nemotron.
In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 2 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 2 · Kimi: 4 · DeepSeek: 2 · Qwen: 4
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 1
  Venice's Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize, a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and a critics' best-actress award, yet she is not in Gold Derby's top five, which starts at Moore's 95.5%.
  Source ↗
- ChatGPTplace 2
  Two distinct signals—Venice’s film prize and Korean critics’ Best Actress—make her the clearest prize-versus-forecast gap in this field.
  Source ↗
- Grokplace 4
  Korean critics’ best actress on October 19, on a film at 100% from 56 reviews, and still outside Gold Derby’s published top five.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 2
  Won both the Venice Grand Jury distinction and the Korean Critics prize, yet sits 11 spots lower on prediction boards due to the foreign-language barrier.
  Source ↗
- Kimiplace 4
  The biggest gap in the race: Venice Grand Jury film plus a Korean critics' actress win, before the combined odds have caught up.
  Source ↗
- DeepSeekplace 2
  The only contender this season with both a major festival jury prize for her film (Venice Silver Lion) and a best-actress critics’ prize (Korean Film Critics Association), yet Gold Derby still lists her at 1.31% or lower.
  Source ↗
- Qwenplace 4
  A historic prize sweep across Venice and Korea hits a massive gap in the odds due to the Academy's non-English hurdle.
  Source ↗
7 AIs put it here
Source ↗
3
Sandra Hüller, Rose
Won Berlin's Silver Bear for leading performance, and Kalshi prices her nomination at 75%, second on that board. Yet she is missing from Gold Derby's published top five.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Nemotron.
In their lists: Claude: 7 · ChatGPT: 5 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 5 · Kimi: 5 · DeepSeek: 6 · Qwen: 3
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 7
  A 53.8% price a month ago, now missing from the top five, with no prize yet.
  Source ↗
- ChatGPTplace 5
  A Venice prize-winner’s recent Oscar profile makes her a familiar forecast pick, but that familiarity is not itself a prize for Rose.
  Source ↗
- Grokplace 2
  Berlin’s lead-acting prize and a 97% Tomatometer, yet she is missing from Gold Derby’s published top five while a nomination market still prices her at 75%.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 5
  Returning two years after Anatomy of a Fall with unanimous festival rave notices, commanding top-five status on name recognition alone.
- Kimiplace 5
  A Berlin Silver Bear for acting is the heaviest actual-performance payload among the English-language-odds favorites.
  Source ↗
- DeepSeekplace 6
  Won the Silver Bear for Best Actress at Berlin 2026, but Gold Derby’s experts-only leaderboard still had her only at No. 6 for a nomination as of mid-October.
  Source ↗
- Qwenplace 3
  Her perfect critical reception bridges the gap between European festival prestige and US odds.
7 AIs put it here
Source ↗
4
Inde Navarrette, Obsession
The fastest riser on Gold Derby, from 73.1% to 84.6–86.1% in a month, and 74% on Kalshi. She has no jury prize, and experts trail users by 20 points.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron.
In their lists: Claude: 4 · Grok: 8 · Gemini: 3 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 4 · Qwen: 2
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 4
  Her odds climbed from 73.1% to 86.1% in a month, the fastest rise in the top five.
  Source ↗
- Grokplace 8
  About $523 million on a budget under $1 million, and third on Gold Derby, with the experts 20 points behind the users.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 3
  A breakout thriller role that surged from unranked in August to runner-up on mainstream prediction boards after New York Film Festival acclaim.
- Kimiplace 2
  The critical dare: 84.9% to be nominated, with AwardsDaily warning the movie rests entirely on her.
  Source ↗
- DeepSeekplace 4
  Gold Derby’s No. 3 in some updates (≈86–88%) and a Critics Choice horror-actress winner, but the prize is genre-specific and the film’s awards profile is narrower than the top two.
  Source ↗
- Qwenplace 2
  Her 95% RT horror triumph defies genre bias, yet her market odds lag behind the establishment favorites.
  Source ↗
6 AIs put it here
Source ↗
5
Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
The only contender with a major acting prize (Cannes, shared with Tao Okamoto) and a top-five Gold Derby price, at 61–62%. Its experts, though, have her at just 42.3%.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron.
In their lists: Claude: 2 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 4 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: 7 · Qwen: 6
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 2
  She shared Cannes' best actress prize with Tao Okamoto, and her odds are 62.1%, so she is the only contender with a major festival prize and a top-five price.
  Source ↗
- Grokplace 3
  A Cannes best-actress prize shared with Tao Okamoto, and editors at 87.5% — while the experts on the same site are down at 42.3%.
- Geminiplace 4
  Swept European critics' polls with an 88 Metascore, but forecasters price her chances at just 16/1 without a signed North American major distributor.
- Kimiplace 6
  Cannes Best Actress, but shared: half a trophy and half the pundit oxygen with co-winner Tao Okamoto.
  Source ↗
- DeepSeekplace 7
  Gold Derby combined odds around 60% in some updates, but no major best-actress prize this season — a pure odds play rather than a prizes play.
  Source ↗
- Qwenplace 6
  Her shared Cannes crown translates into solid market odds, though she remains an outlier in an American-dominated field.
  Source ↗
6 AIs put it here
Source ↗
6
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Second on Gold Derby at 84.8–86.1% and 70% on Kalshi, but its experts give her only a 3.8% chance to win, and she has no jury acting prize.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron, Qwen.
In their lists: Claude: 5 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 7 · Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: 3
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 5
  Her odds fell from 80.8% to 86.1% in the snapshots, still second, without a prize to back them.
  Source ↗
- Grokplace 7
  Second on Gold Derby at 84.79%, with a 3.8% expert win share and no jury acting prize.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 7
  Carries an 8/1 odds line thanks to an aggressive theatrical rollout that contrasts with divided festival jury ballots.
- Kimiplace 3
  Tied with Navarrette at 84.9%, but carrying a director-star campaign and a Best Picture-adjacent film.
  Source ↗
- DeepSeekplace 3
  Second on Gold Derby’s combined-odds chart (≈88.5–89.9%) and poised to become the first woman to direct herself to an Oscar acting nomination, but she has no major critics’ prize for this role.
  Source ↗
5 AIs put it here
Source ↗
7
Renate Reinsve, Fjord
The Palme d'Or went to her film, not to her. She sits fifth on Gold Derby at 48.5–50%, and its editors include her in only 25% of their fives.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Kimi, Qwen. Did not include: Nemotron, Gemini, DeepSeek.
In their lists: Claude: 8 · ChatGPT: 3 · Grok: 6 · Kimi: 7 · Qwen: 5
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 8
  She was nominated for the 2026 Oscars after no precursor wins; this season's odds are 46.2% to 50%.
  Source ↗
- ChatGPTplace 3
  A major Cannes competition title gives Reinsve a festival-backed route into the conversation, but the retrieved forecast snapshots do not establish a reliable exact odds position.
  Source ↗
- Grokplace 6
  The Palme d’Or is the film’s, not hers, and Gold Derby’s editors have her in only 25% of their fives.
  Source ↗
- Kimiplace 7
  The May line favorite has cooled into a coattail contender: still everywhere on critics' lists, no longer alone at the top.
  Source ↗
- Qwenplace 5
  A 51% Kalshi nomination favorite whose Cannes acclaim easily outpaces her film's US theatrical footprint.
5 AIs put it here
Source ↗
8
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
64% to land a Golden Globe nomination and 44% for an Oscar nomination on Kalshi, with no competitive prize and a Metascore of only 68.
Included it: Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Nemotron, Gemini.
In their lists: Grok: 9 · Kimi: 8 · DeepSeek: 8 · Qwen: 8
What each AI noted 4
- Grokplace 9
  A Golden Globe drama contract at 64%, a Metascore of 68, and no competitive acting prize.
  Source ↗
- Kimiplace 8
  One September forecast had her winning the category; the broader market still treats her as a respected outsider.
  Source ↗
- DeepSeekplace 8
  Appears in Gold Derby combined-odds updates at roughly 25% — far below the top tier and without a major 2026 critics’ prize.
  Source ↗
- Qwenplace 8
  Her 44% market odds vastly exceed her film's 68 Metascore, driven by the Academy's historic affinity for advocacy biopics.
  Source ↗
4 AIs put it here
Source ↗
9
Mathilde Arcel, Woman Unknown
Won the Volpi Cup in her first lead role, and her film took the Golden Lion. Yet she is on no odds board, and the film opens in Denmark only on February 4, 2027.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok. Did not include: Nemotron, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen.
In their lists: Claude: 6 · ChatGPT: 4 · Grok: 5
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 6
  She took the Volpi Cup for her first lead role, first festival and first film award, and she is in no odds list I found.
  Source ↗
- ChatGPTplace 4
  Venice’s Best Actress winner also starred in its Golden Lion film, the season’s most concentrated festival-and-performance signal so far.
- Grokplace 5
  Volpi Cup and the Golden Lion in one night — her first lead and her first festival — with a Danish opening set for February 4, 2027.
3 AIs put it here
Source ↗
10
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
AwardsDaily ranks her No. 5 and says she could win, but one Gold Derby update puts her at only about 10%. That is an outlier figure from a single answer.
Included it: Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Nemotron, Gemini.
In their lists: Kimi: 9 · DeepSeek: 9 · Qwen: 9
What each AI noted 3
- Kimiplace 9
  The NYFF/A24 whisper: AwardsDaily says she could win, yet Gold Derby's top three has no room for her.
  Source ↗
- DeepSeekplace 9
  Listed at roughly 10% in some Gold Derby combined-odds updates — a long-shot whose inclusion here reflects the thinness of the field below the top six.
  Source ↗
- Qwenplace 9
  Her critical praise in a divisive satire creates a gap, lacking the traditional campaign reach of her studio rivals.
3 AIs put it here
Source ↗

More about the top three ↓

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

The odds come from different sources and dates (Gold Derby, Kalshi), and the prizes are for different things: an acting prize, a film prize and critics' awards.

1Julianne Moore, The Debut

No. 1 — Julianne Moore, The Debut. On the lists of 7 of 8 AIs; median place there: 1. The AIs put her first because she leads Gold Derby's odds by far, even without a Cannes, Venice or Berlin acting prize.

Julianne Moore 66ème Festival de Venise (Mostra) color crop — Nicolas Genin · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

Before films, Julianne Moore won a Daytime Emmy in 1988 for playing two roles, Frannie and Sabrina Hughes, on the soap opera As the World Turns.
Source ↗

What it is: Julianne Moore, in the comedy The Debut, the odds favourite for Best Actress.
Its edge: Highest Oscar odds of the three: 94% on Gold Derby.
Who should know: Useful to know because it shows odds and festival prizes can point to different people.

Oscar odds vs prizes won94% Gold Derby nomination

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Did you know

Her family moved so often when she was young that she went to nine different schools before turning 18.
Source ↗

History

Her Broadway debut, in The Vertical Hour (2006–2007), closed after 117 performances. The page lists it among her setbacks, along with the flop Freedomland in 2007.
Source ↗

Keep in mind

Not every critic is fully won over by the film itself. One review says it sometimes loses its grip, but that Moore holds it together. The praise is for her more than for the whole film.
Source ↗

What people say

She has an inimitable ability to slip into her characters and make you forget you're staring at a world-famous actor. — Time Out
Source ↗

Where to go further

Read the TIFF review of The Debut before anything else. Moore plays Mona, a bored housewife who turns into a diva in a small-town play. The reviewer calls her comedy a tour de force.
Source ↗

Video: Julianne Moore's Battles Across American History | PBS' Finding Your Roots | Ancestry · Ancestry

Compare the top three ↓

2Jeon Do-yeon, Possible Love

No. 2 — Jeon Do-yeon, Possible Love. On the lists of 7 of 8 AIs; median place there: 2. The AIs see her as the clearest gap between prizes and odds: a Venice-winning film and a Korean critics' award, but low odds.

Did you know

Jeon Do-yeon was the first Korean to receive an acting award at Cannes, in 2007 for Secret Sunshine. Alain Delon presented her prize.
Source ↗ ✓ confirmed by several AIs

What it is: Jeon Do-yeon, star of Possible Love, a Korean film.
Its edge: More prize backing than Moore: Venice Silver Lion film and Korean critics' award.
Who should know: Useful to know because it shows how a non-English film can win praise yet lag in the odds.

Oscar odds vs prizes wonKorean critics' best actress

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

Her film Possible Love won the Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize at Venice. It is the first Korean film to win that prize, which the article calls the festival's second-highest honor.
Source ↗
Possible Love holds a 100% critics' score on Rotten Tomatoes. After the 164-minute Venice screening, the audience gave about six minutes of standing ovation. Strong reviews, yet she is still outside the odds top five.
Source ↗

Keep in mind

One Venice reviewer wondered if director Lee Chang-dong 'bitten off a little more than his film has time to chew' and said it needs a second viewing. The film is a Netflix title: limited theaters from September 23, streaming from November 6.
Source ↗

What people say

delivers yet another once-in-a-century performance — IndieWire (quoted by SBS Star)
Source ↗

Claude put it first. What they saw in it

Claude: Venice's Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize, a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and a critics' best-actress award, yet she is not in Gold Derby's top five, which starts at Moore's 95.5%.

Compare the top three ↓

3Sandra Hüller, Rose

No. 3 — Sandra Hüller, Rose. On the lists of 7 of 8 AIs; median place there: 5. The AIs place her third because a Berlin acting prize and a 75% nomination price are not matched by Gold Derby's top five.

Did you know

At the 2023 European Film Awards, Sandra Hüller was nominated for Best Actress for two different films in the same year, Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest.
Source ↗

What it is: Sandra Hüller, lead of the black-and-white period drama Rose.
Its edge: The only one of the three with a Berlin acting prize, the Silver Bear.
Who should know: Useful to know because it shows a prize winner can sit just outside the odds leaders.

Oscar odds vs prizes wonKalshi 75% nomination

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

Gold Derby lists her Rose performance at No. 6 with 42.3%. That is just outside the top five, whose fifth place is Virginie Efira at 46.2%. The gap between her prize and her odds is small.
Source ↗

History

International recognition came in 2023. Anatomy of a Fall brought her a César for Best Actress and an Academy Award nomination, and The Zone of Interest added to her fame.
Source ↗

Keep in mind

Rose is a slow-paced, black-and-white period drama. One reviewer found it superbly made but said it 'never quite manages to break free with its own invention or originality.'
Source ↗

What people say

one of many subtle gestures in another commanding performance. — Ben Croll, TheWrap
Source ↗

Where to go further

Open Sandra Hüller's filmography page and find Rose, listed as her lead role. The story is set in the 17th century: she joins a secluded community disguised as a man, and suspicion grows around her.
Source ↗

Video: Sandra Hüller on Oscar Nomination for Anatomy of a Fall, Growing Up in Germany & American TV Shows · Jimmy Kimmel Live

Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

	Julianne Moore, The Debut	Jeon Do-yeon, Possible Love	Sandra Hüller, Rose
In the AIs' lists	7 / 8	7 / 8	7 / 8
Oscar odds vs prizes won	94% Gold Derby nomination	Korean critics' best actress	Kalshi 75% nomination
Put first by	ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen	Claude	—

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

Gold Derby and the Kalshi market describe different races. Kalshi has Hüller at 75%, while Gold Derby's visible five leaves her out entirely.

Noticed by:

Included it: Grok. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Nemotron, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen.

01Final list

Julianne Moore, The Debut

Jeon Do-yeon, Possible Love

Sandra Hüller, Rose

Inde Navarrette, Obsession

Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Renate Reinsve, Fjord

Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

Mathilde Arcel, Woman Unknown

Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green

02More about the top three

1Julianne Moore, The Debut

Did you know

2Jeon Do-yeon, Possible Love

Did you know

3Sandra Hüller, Rose

Did you know

The top three side by side

More ratings

03Worth knowing

04How we counted

1The question

2Why this topic

3Where it applies

4What we looked at

5Who ranked

6How the places were set

05Each AI's own list

What Claude noticed

What ChatGPT noticed

What Grok noticed

What Gemini noticed

What Kimi noticed

What DeepSeek noticed

What Qwen noticed