AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-17-btc

Hash of the run: 51df0cf43cc198ffb02942e9f571c888c617bba29a34402a156bb7f8105534a7 · sealed 2026-10-17T14:22:48Z

Covers lines 29–56 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-17 14:22:48 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-19 08:54:56 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

1. 933cd888cc94c3b2d41d41afb88e94aec088ac9519dbad77206d79aec677730d — as at 2026-10-17 14:22:50 UTC, lines 29–36, list 142250Z.txt
2. 13b53b0be69ed8e846b5725995473013133a82ec0c8917961ba5733ae0088db0 — as at 2026-10-17 17:54:12 UTC, lines 29–37, list 175412Z.txt
3. 51df0cf43cc198ffb02942e9f571c888c617bba29a34402a156bb7f8105534a7 — as at 2026-10-19 08:54:56 UTC, lines 29–56 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–37 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 20d92bb6774e869ae6ccb91cc6912ff32cffa7b9a7f56dfe1f3a519315f5969b

The intake for the score closed at Mon, Oct 19, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-19T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=29) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

• Claude claude — Council: forecasts and the league: n=36 · forecast; n=49 · forecast
• ChatGPT chatgpt — Council: forecasts and the league: n=34 · forecast; n=48 · forecast
• Meta AI meta — Council: forecasts and the league: n=37 · forecast; n=51 · forecast
• Grok grok — Council: forecasts and the league: n=38 · forecast; n=56 · forecast
• Gemini gemini — Council: forecasts and the league: n=33 · forecast; n=53 · forecast
• Nemotron + Mercury (search) nemotron — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line
• Amazon Nova nova — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line

China

• MiMo (Xiaomi) mimo — Council: forecasts and the league: n=35 · forecast; n=54 · forecast
• Step 5 Preview stepfun — Council: forecasts and the league: n=32 · forecast; n=50 · forecast
• Z.ai zai — Council: forecasts and the league: positions unchanged
• Kimi kimi — Council: forecasts and the league: n=31 · forecast; n=52 · forecast
• DeepSeek deepseek — Council: forecasts and the league: n=30 · forecast; n=55 · forecast
• wenxin wenxin — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line
• Qwen qwen — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

• 142250Z.txt
• 142250Z.txt.ots
• 153458Z.txt
• 153458Z.txt.ots
• 173438Z.txt
• 173438Z.txt.ots
• 175412Z.txt
• 175412Z.txt.ots

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

• 142250Z.txt Check in the browser
• 153458Z.txt Check in the browser
• 173438Z.txt Check in the browser
• 175412Z.txt Check in the browser

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

• 142250Z.txt · Rekor 3368242884 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 971873 (header time 2026-10-17 14:25:49 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:41:20 UTC
• 153458Z.txt · Rekor 3368244443 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 971884 (header time 2026-10-17 16:55:58 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:41:23 UTC
• 173438Z.txt · Rekor 3368248265 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 971895 (header time 2026-10-17 18:03:07 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:41:31 UTC
• 175412Z.txt · Rekor 3368249513 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 971901 (header time 2026-10-17 19:55:21 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:41:34 UTC

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-28 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 18,599 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-28 20:43:30 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

• the Bitcoin block of the stamp: ots verify 142250Z.txt.ots Copy
• without a Bitcoin node: the output names BitcoinBlockHeaderAttestation(971873); the Merkle root of block 971873 on any block explorer must be ce0b20d4f3df8f60fad58bd32c6442783214a560dc36634cfcff0e70e95743d3: ots info 142250Z.txt.ots Copy
• the chain of lists, each naming the one before it: python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals; sys.exit(seals.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" Copy
• Recount the published Brier from the open files (exit code 0 — reproduced, 1 — differs): python3 tools/replay_brier.py https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/ Copy
• each list’s entry in the public log: its digest and our key: python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals_rekor; sys.exit(seals_rekor.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" Copy
• the chain of the Council’s book, line by line: python3 -I tools/verify_chain.py council-book.jsonl Copy

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 622 of 622 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt and their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/.

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

1. n=29 · run · · seal ee09eefa51c5794b1fba2ea2d563bb7a4e150af8b499f91ab6f12fd3861bc33a · link 4a156a9f616a8233b353c40ec9f2df79805f91118e73ddf2762052445038f624 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 142250Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
2. n=30 · answer · deepseek · seal 27b7d72f052229f7003409543dd51605c5984c335c5eab52a98ebb5545148e53 · link b3a828d910cd99711a629a6461a6ba61e48e1b35a04d01533e6348ae8c0cfb42 — forecast · stamped in 142250Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
3. n=31 · answer · kimi · seal c399d4118611f61b4088fe1c92c297799dc1ee7bbdc9abb1b4b88fa9929543b2 · link 515b5a6dc0b1d3a25e64d99bd9a5d79325729235b25215f47567f221f1107de3 — forecast · stamped in 142250Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
4. n=32 · answer · stepfun · seal 6b43459904618a4b85f1982f7aaeed3a7a9c0d6bf09b406e9c4d89b1f2d4eb90 · link a2273eb88744869733a317e2f3e1725d247347da54ccbe4e6c10ca15f31daffc — forecast · stamped in 142250Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
5. n=33 · answer · gemini · seal 4c025145b68dfb55ae38053bb2aed2e283c52621d0d31fcbad3af29ac428f4e0 · link 8f5f93798477bcb7767c4bb72d01de6728fbfdb11234c8dc3d7260f9e92b0428 — forecast · stamped in 142250Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
6. n=34 · answer · chatgpt · seal e3e604568373f2b5de9d2ae64833ceb15ebfd5e35f3f19eae90bd5dcea7bfa31 · link 7e1c86d35d64743e1db32131f68530684f3b801bf90efb4848ca64c2b5149038 — forecast · stamped in 142250Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
7. n=35 · answer · mimo · seal cc533391cc428afa2878b23541028c4b377344b46dac834a8ca14a721dbd6229 · link 1eee210341fea8d107a647a5f36220c47de9181cccf37c593182e1c1578f3cde — forecast · stamped in 142250Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
8. n=110 · addition · mimo · seal 2624faa8f4570b4a00956055271e45512fd48dff0312f02bfd1228997dc82f9d · link 79ba41e06a26adc76d04c1c399cc507715dd9c704f244d5476e555885af55e3b — an addition to line n=35 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
9. n=36 · answer · claude · seal 331759441bf7ec426e99bd96feb3ff6c8d06cb1d9a8cc5d5b665d6e244d2e8d2 · link 98914f4f799e64694fda00b63f48594c7e2fc32a8477db4b37241eaac03a87ae — forecast · stamped in 142250Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
10. n=37 · answer · meta · seal 7d47fa41b296eb063791224681b83cae2d658481f70fb6d6aacd9fe8f046a2b6 · link 4670645f900a902d8ead0dd924f7d0b867fb07d021796e1e50987b2dabb0e41a — forecast · stamped in 175412Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
11. n=111 · addition · meta · seal e3531822f29843ed0910fd4ee4c2fde353f0ad27f5b04937a6012e20640acb6a · link d4406d5bdf9bf1a9f7e43161e7c0437fb0375a3f04dbbc2f454bc490c7e77268 — an addition to line n=37 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
12. n=38 · answer · grok · seal 6d24f37f2ccc8a27fb25f137c671154934ed3396b4eeed27779bcaea3ecf8983 · link dcb7718eeb25d8f07834a702136df869993b1692c708869dface3ba1c1faaae7 — forecast · stamped later in 205400Z.txt (2026-10-17 20:54:00 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
13. n=48 · answer · chatgpt · seal 43c97d5d8fa9396898d42592cac763be84408484b08a6d3d88ecf28ecee13864 · link 23061f4bb78865e14b41e8dc3e5840596d2941b8fd4562abcea7071bb2d551fe — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
14. n=49 · answer · claude · seal 7e26fc9db68dadaa6c35e0b33adeb119252330824685156a7593f7410b24e20c · link 9262a91995635ab6da77269a76ae7333b0b5fd3d44a0260815d166b9f12a8653 — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
15. n=50 · answer · stepfun · seal cf2a2e7a2050583d41bef9f2a7494484f7a20feb7b84a241b1f50be7a58f000a · link ec95e1cf445540697d32ac205acaa5b336adf33cf375b197d8212638c5b963d0 — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
16. n=51 · answer · meta · seal be89294a0621ef7d8994395f7d140ff66e042005ceb09021dd3d8df71b65a205 · link 699999659e8ffd4c85c7ef3ddebb32e7b8d0baa8ad8549851f32bb7dfe76a3cf — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
17. n=112 · addition · meta · seal b41ec4ab5f0c3bc3c1a508db56eb1a2d6b4c6c8413e190920beb48f03eb14d8d · link e154f2145d7ce7cce3d16fa3f9b672b276e1513a7cddb70a672d61738b9f6330 — an addition to line n=51 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
18. n=52 · answer · kimi · seal 56f504909196ca132499fae36a881aa0ca30990ff003c2f3f5b3df07f5d90c60 · link 6420812de7037291621ea7800fe9673f25c187c9bda2a4bb5a3cee7fd7893b44 — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
19. n=53 · answer · gemini · seal 1c68da0ecc17aa2cf0074f289046a77680ad6a577b4f909ae8e88ac81e5afcd3 · link 3c2ac83ed82eb42779231f6869ebb286d7e06cda17ad3a18e3a4c6824e79b60d — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
20. n=54 · answer · mimo · seal eb956a8012d2da4405a990a23a9cd3a0ec8c408098e13f43ad6b9ccbc033b179 · link dd00223a605bf8b0750288b6bc447820d75cc4140160a4838e01504673c65b4f — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
21. n=113 · addition · mimo · seal 5f4d5cdc6492bed81a585f6c1670bf9caa4ddd700713653a5eb82131e9425796 · link d4132a1061f4985be4013bb097fc6c533555f151a2470c625b4a78c3662d377a — an addition to line n=54 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
22. n=55 · answer · deepseek · seal fe4077e0fb34e33d6aa07d84d398d8485ae75fec1bb2660c37db62654af7c763 · link a1a70d3ab99cf04b88c2458ffa66a7c5cd0c2becbd540e883c5be9bca08a99aa — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
23. n=124 · addition · deepseek · seal e39481973ce37e2b54e663f88899c2353e9d8eec9ea1094ed47dcca8e5f81793 · link c6922fa39ab9264603963035172cbdfb4de50e705ad959a9223839c8f0f8f47a — an addition to line n=55 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
24. n=56 · answer · grok · seal fbf2eb0e74fc31d5c6f1f37b0b1d4c491341b657b112f25c813678c48bfb4c2d · link 3dfd9cb572bdb6469e6c5d9d20cc59bf79b05110fd0ec29ed53cc612f1e8871b — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 093451Z.txt (2026-10-18 09:34:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
25. n=92 · score_view · · seal 8f73bbe9b8fc4f28b1da523465b692a659f460e7b303729e98a163a6648a43d5 · link 8f0b07c5cd6f71821cfe3e97c4aa53e93d7a7b2a65e4e97d7db0e811d04fcdf9 — a record of the book · stamped later in 210004Z.txt (2026-10-19 21:00:04 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
26. n=129 · addition · · seal 177720e2a552d172159633097145508efd0dbad46411f708512c8a5b609449e9 · link 1a7a5a3ff5af56032a2151900625c66108b9ae376a0a8645db74a56e845a3d14 — an addition to a record · stamped later in 050014Z.txt (2026-10-20 05:00:14 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
27. n=337 · score_h_view · · seal 65378c09d97249566a4b9dacac36f32d37c3cce059e7727bbd18041bc02f3517 · link 2b3601fb4458cb86b15153fac05b2922eccacc5bff8bfc7b67f815f27f73d2ae — a record of the book · stamped later in 153507Z.txt (2026-10-24 15:35:07 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →