AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-19-am

Hash of the run: 5e286b34fb0b2ba3979d4296dbf962c73cb2e8f3150671cff1542791fd8c9be1 · sealed 2026-10-19T13:24:17Z

Covers lines 79–86 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-19 13:24:17 UTC.

The intake for the score closed at Mon, Oct 19, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-19T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=79) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

• Claude claude — Council: forecasts and the league: n=85 · forecast · league · Pro league
• ChatGPT chatgpt — Council: forecasts and the league: n=83 · forecast · league · Pro league
• meta meta — Council: forecasts and the league: positions unchanged; n=102 · Pro league · asked again; n=121 · league · answered 2026-10-19 13:38 UTC, sealed 2026-10-20 03:17 UTC
• Grok grok — Council: forecasts and the league: n=81 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Gemini gemini — Council: forecasts and the league: n=84 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Nemotron + Mercury (search) nemotron — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: n=87 · league · Pro league
• Amazon Nova nova — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: n=88 · league · Pro league; n=101 · Pro league · asked again

China

• MiMo (Xiaomi) mimo — Council: forecasts and the league: n=86 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Step 5 Preview stepfun — Council: forecasts and the league: positions unchanged; n=149 · Pro league · asked again
• Z.ai zai — Council: forecasts and the league: positions unchanged; n=89 · league · Pro league
• Kimi kimi — Council: forecasts and the league: n=82 · forecast · league · Pro league; n=100 · league · Pro league
• DeepSeek deepseek — Council: forecasts and the league: n=80 · forecast · league · Pro league
• wenxin wenxin — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: n=99 · league · Pro league
• Qwen qwen — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: n=103 · league · Pro league · asked again

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

• 132417Z.txt
• 132417Z.txt.ots
• 140011Z.txt
• 140011Z.txt.ots
• 153441Z.txt
• 153441Z.txt.ots
• 173607Z.txt
• 173607Z.txt.ots

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

• 132417Z.txt Check in the browser
• 140011Z.txt Check in the browser
• 153441Z.txt Check in the browser
• 173607Z.txt Check in the browser

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

• 132417Z.txt · Rekor 3368301778 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 973405 (header time 2026-10-27 13:47:46 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:43:22 UTC
• 140011Z.txt · Rekor 3368303693 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972158 (header time 2026-10-19 14:09:25 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:43:26 UTC
• 153441Z.txt · Rekor 3368304942 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972177 (header time 2026-10-19 16:22:55 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:43:29 UTC
• 173607Z.txt · Rekor 3368307906 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972187 (header time 2026-10-19 17:49:13 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:43:35 UTC

Chain of lists

• 132417Z.txt — previous list 2026-10-27/122012Z.txt sha256 2a666e39fe173cbb8749287a5abcc4839d0674ca29cb01b22c5aa8bdec83f902 · hash equal

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-28 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 18,599 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-28 20:43:30 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

• the Bitcoin block of the stamp: ots verify 132417Z.txt.ots Copy
• without a Bitcoin node: the output names BitcoinBlockHeaderAttestation(973405); the Merkle root of block 973405 on any block explorer must be cd6ef034676ddb868b4068b91be26ec0680cc21bed68735162319d3fe5ec56bb: ots info 132417Z.txt.ots Copy
• the chain of lists, each naming the one before it: python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals; sys.exit(seals.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" Copy
• Recount the published Brier from the open files (exit code 0 — reproduced, 1 — differs): python3 tools/replay_brier.py https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/ Copy
• each list’s entry in the public log: its digest and our key: python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals_rekor; sys.exit(seals_rekor.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" Copy
• the chain of the Council’s book, line by line: python3 -I tools/verify_chain.py council-book.jsonl Copy

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 623 of 623 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt and their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/.

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

1. n=79 · run · · seal 738734977b95a357d8688e7b2f1f8bce3ceea41c18e232dfc866d844d582061f · link 74986eb71288db3b0597a053a90120a2b17158b9df46e2432c88bdbdffd4a749 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
2. n=80 · answer · deepseek · seal da2ee9b85330bc522532de7e1ceeeac13a789345480b63631812bfac04dd88ea · link 4556d932d677ae523afd89e98e2323198abcc46a158bfe98e36b213aad8d56eb — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
3. n=118 · addition · deepseek · seal 6733fce3dd9bf405d01bab8fe8e0544c05d3d0fef8d784ef3391e0df8db21613 · link 1c4a6ed315c3d19470d205168c5a506421517ac7dd720a289a700ab038d50124 — an addition to line n=80 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
4. n=126 · addition · deepseek · seal cafb906c504925dd8da4715e62095dfd3ba4314fafa6b4c6858168d13c8b2ca7 · link 82f565ed56a030b390baefcf6214eddd9f908438e2b037013d2d97ae80acd446 — an addition to line n=80 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
5. n=81 · answer · grok · seal b499c8738ef0538c0b01582f09bab3937c847d249386620a9bde3cf6a4e49293 · link 786d6b100bbcbabec4cd2d4a3c9e5f2f129be50f2c0162d8c157ae9978a91384 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
6. n=82 · answer · kimi · seal 33dabe3c7ddb86c5aba55932091022a258e12ca37c7e18f1627a258743b53c9c · link 78bfd4a712ff3aab1070ae42fac06961ae69cfa42d712d3683e3b101257db4a8 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
7. n=119 · addition · kimi · seal 3bce5ddd57c0e392e6059bf70514d49259704e79b149f0b9b161c2a03718677e · link 6e7254d089f65064728f64538930b926bf6271192adda291ca4da8d02e929c60 — an addition to line n=82 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
8. n=83 · answer · chatgpt · seal d61bdfaf7c3aeb053e4e4239e401d4c731f6e7ea134bf5ee1f27b0632049ceb5 · link 6a5d9cd2c2a50239d343842115bd1559fe20ef7f26cf74f7b7975d027043f46a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
9. n=84 · answer · gemini · seal 81098dec83336e0a7d62ef2eeb689199263663ff9e29a56e393d6debda979878 · link a2cbd2303a41e43f10695422838b63a44fd69fb981901b11c430d4eaf74a2721 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
10. n=85 · answer · claude · seal 085c536522e1948b0bc30efe2cfb5f8cb40a4590a18465775aa327898c800843 · link 3169deae5ac8cb745969d5f125377059a5f9a22885e0eda7074cf6bf4a541005 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
11. n=86 · answer · mimo · seal d93fc3c70cea66539f0b59daa349ce871cd0f33c40edc7d335225ece690aff24 · link d84707c3c956cc7a02ffdc0fa03d71538962e76d996c1ddbeb86f7648cbf8af6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
12. n=120 · addition · mimo · seal 08489db6f37ce9f42c4f6a06f1fa5a8feaf9e9b08142dd50bff3b848097fbb57 · link a1312b9a7caae87620af9583b75f182d2b45ea6bcb81e1ff427d8ac73eebf414 — an addition to line n=86 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
13. n=87 · bench · nemotron · seal 9d1e02d3860cb0556791d41a6aaeb3b85554901a451af38b80dc4a096b2e0df8 · link 87ba4188a45711ce076a7dde989d581308b31190dc09f413dde1930059695aea — league · Pro league · stamped in 140011Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
14. n=88 · bench · nova · seal c5bc0c66a0707c177bb982eecf8e2910ef8b7623601d4c164712d54a8bbb5286 · link 4f4b5cbaac4bf57c412f8d59b7a294350123969d1279faced69a641397dac701 — league · Pro league · stamped in 140011Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
15. n=89 · bench · zai · seal 13e9766932b560ac229d45a1f10184e232cfef5e8324b6f455158bbcd558300c · link 6aeb2c3069a861cc7d05e269c023323801ffb7541c9d988464de3ca110dd90c4 — league · Pro league · stamped in 140011Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
16. n=93 · portfolio · · seal 74bd2ef135e1bc31c303492ea8bf638cd8f895059400a675e0c722e9c33d2264 · link b48bc32f01e538fb8be2eef3e4f7790cfb53b231beabe63d6818e8a776835474 — the books of the forecasts, valued at the close · stamped later in 210004Z.txt (2026-10-19 21:00:04 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
17. n=94 · score · · seal 3333e655057956e2be8cb2036902781a354cb5ee60d05dc241699634faf47326 · link 7948cd81fc7815a99100585d3849c73e87974a1a82a0758b84a410652db48ab8 — the forecast score of the day · stamped later in 210004Z.txt (2026-10-19 21:00:04 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
18. n=95 · experiment · · seal b6b712b2f4016b042acedb4a446d738758629384c80aa3aa3c197e05aeae4cba · link 13968a29d25cac393cea78228bbcb69c43df85cdbb15f9e8867eac2dc05c7c6b — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 210004Z.txt (2026-10-19 21:00:04 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
19. n=96 · score_h · · seal 1cc4102a2612c1905d08d99079c36e12d20df97667b53c5c9c94b65de9cd069b · link 7bc489b0d1214d9acfba1175936a156e6453d1c542969ee149bd4335aef08cff — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 210004Z.txt (2026-10-19 21:00:04 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
20. n=97 · arena · · seal 247f30995f368f33f11ad5602f4af25f1c0272ba7807f332cfdee8d8a0f9a5e7 · link d3d53c98543f28538fa8f0f81330562e7be60ec409f5281e357512913164e202 — the league's session: trades and values · stamped later in 210004Z.txt (2026-10-19 21:00:04 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
21. n=99 · bench · wenxin · seal fef0a2772e4ebf7a1acc28a90adbc970df268b23d4194d9a66eda89c675e495a · link 3c92a6f798c50fcc6f7b6e51532d5af3c6586b9d5962bad8a2e79813ef0f8df3 — league · Pro league · stamped later in 223005Z.txt (2026-10-19 22:30:05 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
22. n=100 · bench · kimi · seal f580874f37c147f4aab23a00e0011c6f4f0605d458c09fddacf6b7ecd5996cbf · link 8ac1bd240145465a35c70c57220be45a9de1e75d1c3b639a9c42bc4cf443b1b1 — league · Pro league · stamped later in 223005Z.txt (2026-10-19 22:30:05 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
23. n=101 · bench · nova · seal 6044561384fe3904af6889d7687594132738efb665f77e7f58ef9e2cf73c8414 · link feb492331a7ae1ce854768857f896c25f02f0cda3d86dadc90a762a7aa8df609 — Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 233505Z.txt (2026-10-19 23:35:05 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
24. n=102 · bench · meta · seal 03ae7e84d23e3c95bc4e6fa6deea712a4f1952e5ef23348a9b16ec3ca7ad2b43 · link 8d65698cb256098c4792b4938fd9171c4d29d971bdd6c1940b20ff5d3882cc9c — Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 233505Z.txt (2026-10-19 23:35:05 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
25. n=103 · bench · qwen · seal c32c0c3cea1e3f050a2447a152bbd1b08ab02827efaf56df2712f1d850568856 · link ae50a1cc0a04e76b24140853bc9e2d97f0366529c2d032936d9f51e946f1abc1 — league · Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 010007Z.txt (2026-10-20 01:00:07 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
26. n=121 · bench · meta · seal a25509ee2d0c115a2121f5a8d09fac6e5c371c7b0e7a168798a83cc5b440faf2 · link 5d5f0fa277b793cc8ce119bc59e0d1ab58b7377d0eb15b78389239d7f66bcf87 — league · answered 2026-10-19 13:38 UTC, sealed 2026-10-20 03:17 UTC · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
27. n=122 · addition · meta · seal 270795a7f8fa370a6fcabad050467220f1e6e4b0d23584eaffadccf1414e1b58 · link b8fe19f76707bc9aa0ff71a7e0dd0e9c9fbbd3a948d0ecc0bd77c2997a287d31 — an addition to line n=121 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 033437Z.txt (2026-10-20 03:34:37 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
28. n=127 · addition · meta · seal 24349ec90e587f7391e7e930bae75dee0bc468bc53e96e98fb48f932549a4f11 · link c7d3a3e79ef13f0f8cde4836784a379d2358e913ca9cc6d048203da87d53f90d — an addition to line n=121 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped later in 050014Z.txt (2026-10-20 05:00:14 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
29. n=131 · addition · · seal 1c527fb028178a653f09db22d4380d083415dfb7797aae1d753d8186ecc09d85 · link 8b67ff9da3d4d139d3993a7d70956e029d529fb0bf1020744335057027f52bf0 — an addition to a record · stamped later in 050014Z.txt (2026-10-20 05:00:14 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
30. n=149 · bench · stepfun · seal a9ea235e29202ef877a84a7459685e56b4a57a30cdf06af5c532b0c71fd21cbc · link 4725b57b4635d92f4615c335c03acd0b4fdb7936ac898bda77e9af76b56e6625 — Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 113349Z.txt (2026-10-20 11:33:49 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
31. n=173 · crowd · · seal a37b8b20d02bd1e5ea489622370316b13c28a939cb664988e8e6ee245faaa39b · link c4214e9793c82de5d1368e6a26274e7179b8400eb3b1440267e343c3e3cc32d2 — a record of the book · stamped later in 165254Z.txt (2026-10-20 16:52:54 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
32. n=391 · score_h · · seal 0d5d2493c6f4d3dd7e93a2d90fc72e96b2330233ad002dac80ccc25e4ef7ae26 · link 9cd087f539a527750fcae9a3e379143ca880b30ed0c5fafb3841e45aabc4d3d4 — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 150002Z.txt (2026-10-26 15:00:02 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
33. n=392 · experiment · · seal 9d9d7992582801aa18417f319667ebaf5c38f3fa72e663f31e02569f6bbe7a35 · link 635e3fdff8235f4b5dee724e9700f673e9721bf0de69c69536307737fa58a680 — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 150002Z.txt (2026-10-26 15:00:02 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →