AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-20-am

Hash of the run: 948c61afd7a5d06cac86d8c38c258f863f9707a24e8400678de321691abc0120 · sealed 2026-10-20T13:00:25Z

Covers lines 150–159 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-20 13:00:25 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-20 13:23:47 UTC.

The intake for the score closed at Tue, Oct 20, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-20T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=151) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

• Claude claude — Council: forecasts and the league: n=159 · forecast · league · Pro league
• ChatGPT chatgpt — Council: forecasts and the league: n=152 · forecast · league · Pro league
• meta meta — Council: forecasts and the league: n=168 · forecast; n=177 · league · Pro league · asked again
• Grok grok — Council: forecasts and the league: n=154 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Gemini gemini — Council: forecasts and the league: n=156 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Nemotron + Mercury (search) nemotron — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line
• Amazon Nova nova — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line

China

• MiMo (Xiaomi) mimo — Council: forecasts and the league: n=157 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Step 5 Preview stepfun — Council: forecasts and the league: n=155 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Z.ai zai — Council: forecasts and the league: positions unchanged; n=169 · league · Pro league
• kimi kimi — Council: forecasts and the league: positions unchanged
• DeepSeek deepseek — Council: forecasts and the league: n=153 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) wenxin — Council: forecasts and the league: n=158 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Qwen qwen — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

• 130025Z.txt
• 130025Z.txt.ots
• 150012Z.txt
• 150012Z.txt.ots
• 153605Z.txt
• 153605Z.txt.ots
• 165254Z.txt
• 165254Z.txt.ots

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

• 130025Z.txt Check in the browser
• 150012Z.txt Check in the browser
• 153605Z.txt Check in the browser
• 165254Z.txt Check in the browser

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

• 130025Z.txt · Rekor 3368351276 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972334 (header time 2026-10-20 13:55:20 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:45:03 UTC
• 150012Z.txt · Rekor 3368353257 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972344 (header time 2026-10-20 15:06:05 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:45:07 UTC
• 153605Z.txt · Rekor 3368354543 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972354 (header time 2026-10-20 16:40:46 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:45:09 UTC
• 165254Z.txt · Rekor 3368359137 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972359 (header time 2026-10-20 17:26:18 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · in the public log since 2026-10-21 23:45:18 UTC

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-28 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 18,599 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-28 20:43:30 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

• the Bitcoin block of the stamp: ots verify 130025Z.txt.ots Copy
• without a Bitcoin node: the output names BitcoinBlockHeaderAttestation(972334); the Merkle root of block 972334 on any block explorer must be 74072ae1fdee72c9a3f749462490b46f896e0fab58f7d101dc1a403d967e5c30: ots info 130025Z.txt.ots Copy
• the chain of lists, each naming the one before it: python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals; sys.exit(seals.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" Copy
• Recount the published Brier from the open files (exit code 0 — reproduced, 1 — differs): python3 tools/replay_brier.py https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/ Copy
• each list’s entry in the public log: its digest and our key: python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals_rekor; sys.exit(seals_rekor.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" Copy
• the chain of the Council’s book, line by line: python3 -I tools/verify_chain.py council-book.jsonl Copy

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 623 of 623 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt and their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/.

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

1. n=150 · cb_packet · · seal 1a36b6ce2e558b8111ea85daa6d02f1746b2cb9fa36c5a18d02ebf21e1da3dea · link bd8a8fc7746999d77cc37234b8d8fed43c8684a6d6754688a94ca645e5cec955 — a record of the book · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
2. n=151 · run · · seal 3c71c7042a20221b62114e265cf305cbc1387a5b65f05e93b698b2784aeb3e86 · link 9e11e1890a4fbf07d1af0694e5a2b8d73ec9a9e951076ba1eb925ff32fc520b8 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
3. n=152 · answer · chatgpt · seal 2795d94e68f27257294587ad128ed802b98eb8aa147cdefedfeac3e3f98b3424 · link b4adffbe9ea797410386def7f86dec475b897a75dd4554fbb91f1fd38a993c00 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
4. n=153 · answer · deepseek · seal 258170ab4a5d037e5aebfe6deed5be399c1fedce9c2f73777d8e7a1ff268dc9a · link 20e2ff5346a4a837483d6e2faf9371ac4c64229ab14fe1c7b248fc107a19bbdc — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
5. n=154 · answer · grok · seal 5cb335089126a0b568df8772b636a17a8e7b3eec8e8a1a2ab8da701e6812594a · link 1bb46336fa57ee89103a49ff2632597e5b9e45c7d1de72a4ce786b6e9222254d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
6. n=155 · answer · stepfun · seal 0e99c547b4baa9b6b4c3ed641b5233ee4595f6f6c7dc81277763f3b932136a2d · link be68f3001a5a5e87b8ee556b7d5ecde0b7213011aaa3f34ae55063d54948499e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
7. n=156 · answer · gemini · seal 4c2e7bc41d6b6fb25b4d88fa40b63a8848147b792cc8e096b94b9123fd8957f1 · link 24d731f2b4bec22c7c4a93259d86e236bd87dcb656cd5171955eaeb2548f77a9 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
8. n=157 · answer · mimo · seal c64906d497e24e6d30932ac3bc6d9ee843d669d28ef817c4b4d90051e3f4c68a · link c63c38388fd3e61515f6f68c2321e1397427d4c802563634ef2b32b1e6adba04 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
9. n=158 · answer · wenxin · seal 2c2f3ef57210e23120bc6ccdce1fe7a353e07a7ded477803fd04c52b1f723a32 · link 3c12cf0465b21d879be85055f8d65843cb05969a8a926724872a39460ab6ecab — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
10. n=159 · answer · claude · seal c7f4facbf3491b7350660b41bbb724527015d497b578751beb10f5975826f0ff · link 378273fd057fcbf364746b032f67f42cd811d281da80f39ff0792c4047175b2c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130025Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
11. n=160 · closed_book · chatgpt · seal 25f4955fd5168323d91e2c90e86dbab8773add7b4a6d3cc48e6c42a78c07c5c4 · link fc1058e8bb798f80f96ef7d3071f9b33e60e78effcfd8754ac0813969e1a9836 — a record of the book · stamped in 150012Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
12. n=161 · closed_book · wenxin · seal bdddb0fd0df38f6118f0eeddb1383a0203d35f0d3f29f0ded972f6dee5e89628 · link 8a03644d8568c11d052087185366a3eb843cd700b810722e7918483cfe59d55f — a record of the book · stamped in 150012Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
13. n=162 · closed_book · deepseek · seal 5b74a5c10e732e412487680b2bcf3dfc77116bcdda79aafc18bb5e86a2fcc8a8 · link 7d33b0f8a40c4ad51677bf3fea6ea2b6c4092f7c7eaee99d86232208ddec17ad — a record of the book · stamped in 150012Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
14. n=163 · closed_book · gemini · seal dd2c48ec115bdfa93c575bd9d02d978418f8e53c994f12d08bab2a796225ca4b · link 7c0d5d8e2be95b62cbf8d46b06b8ea99d137782f96052baeffd4c0e9a1f326e1 — a record of the book · stamped in 150012Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
15. n=164 · closed_book · stepfun · seal 3053dcc9bc3934162bea789fc7e81e1da885ee6949c55c2088b36a633bba7cbf · link 3eaecebf6e158c45cad5314d880eb94aba886a4dd184b5471016a8cc37ed5a1a — a record of the book · stamped in 150012Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
16. n=165 · closed_book · claude · seal edd7cd2cfe49af341ae9de5e61727a1c7539bb8f2ed5ed3cd89f7796ea370897 · link 626ce9df47667f37a8590be234c8e3e6d2758fd6f9641c80563e803bfc1cbaa0 — a record of the book · stamped in 150012Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
17. n=168 · answer · meta · seal f8471830be51a8ea8e22627953d7d03a6a04b4b2df1e8b7c48eeed90ec64722c · link badae406a56f2e77758d383ae7b4e1c847f4577645c7dfc3309d33fd7e46d984 — forecast · counted in the score · stamped in 165254Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
18. n=169 · bench · zai · seal 7d128ad783180b4465ef52eacf856a32392c335a70718c481f8cea54da5306c8 · link 6a856c47bc72fd5afa0775b3ef3c4cdbb0124fdc6d6621624dca31f5f21c47ad — league · Pro league · stamped in 165254Z.txt: OpenTimestamps
19. n=177 · bench · meta · seal cb77ffb3845ded35afba4c16c980fa31ed68ea8321d308e91b36c0baafbd52ea · link a92f38c5a0389b1bd520509bd755a79afe5133ead3983a7cea378d598f0eb962 — league · Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 173433Z.txt (2026-10-20 17:34:33 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
20. n=183 · portfolio · · seal 01511c3511deb1e2f0c9d77f6a36b05d80d26c3161d223ef1c38f2154f50901f · link 474f96cd622ed18f94b88664c559009ea9e461d365893d74f5b4c88d0b5e876d — the books of the forecasts, valued at the close · stamped later in 210006Z.txt (2026-10-20 21:00:06 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
21. n=184 · score · · seal 6f31be52d885155736fc4b39f72ede7a261c4d211aec79b2a85ad6e49944262e · link 0570e39b1805e93ba764dcafa184f99fdfb7a76c1bb681f587c24fae79267785 — the forecast score of the day · stamped later in 210006Z.txt (2026-10-20 21:00:06 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
22. n=187 · arena · · seal e4c82bfb607abecbe282c62e6b23a583a549e5c96b0fe83a6200a651fe754c00 · link 3f92893c47dad95d6bb5e200caa06921fcb97d8e18dd9c01e127fb387351aacf — the league's session: trades and values · stamped later in 210006Z.txt (2026-10-20 21:00:06 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
23. n=188 · score_h · · seal 691215132056165a47ad4ba79b43fae2f86e61482e71d7849e9b48caccb2b987 · link 829dda1b6b52d7c39f397ce0773608afa14d9fb2a4a79158d453d00c3601e48d — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 210006Z.txt (2026-10-20 21:00:06 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
24. n=193 · experiment · · seal 55dfe79ec113f17eb227ea319e2aecb2f63c386ee5f16e27df5454ab45c9ee64 · link 1353d12bffb9242bfd223ae51133d722e1a9ca6cafdefd404b8a8a14d92f5759 — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 210006Z.txt (2026-10-20 21:00:06 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps
25. n=232 · crowd · · seal cc0ed4c7e2491f724e7d2a23bac08b1faf5e684f075d9d9e3383528058d82a62 · link fe2fcee84bff30546069700adf739bec4ffde594209686af97a27bd901f3bef7 — a record of the book · stamped later in 201503Z.txt (2026-10-21 20:15:03 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
26. n=468 · score_h · · seal 7c7d9f38f107dd27bcac9ca7bbb0cead2e2233feafe81888519093321e97b4b1 · link 9275c850d27be098de5423f9bbd71b6eb20446e6243a938e3b4717e4d2f197d5 — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 141217Z.txt (2026-10-27 14:12:17 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
27. n=469 · experiment · · seal af0d73cbcadbe7138443f165a589738d519a5b5c18de07c226b3a2f7a2da2935 · link 44af703b61509d283a855afe8c2e3ca2b1f15fa3f8b46af2240ba9f698fe6828 — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 141217Z.txt (2026-10-27 14:12:17 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →