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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-21-am

All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 12:32:52–13:23:23 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, FreeTSA at 13:00:19 and 13:23:37 UTC (the latest — Meta AI, 6 min 23 s before the open).

Hash of the run: 08b1387eab50e23936467aa9683690f5ab6567a533b819c03417d378427d1f57 · sealed 2026-10-21T13:00:19Z

Covers lines 213–224 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-21 13:00:19 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-21 13:23:37 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. 6d8f91bcb86fcce110e395b89a416a6c3373977baee5fc2e18b80e0fb65f27c0 — as at 2026-10-21 12:30:09 UTC, lines 213–213, list 123009Z.txt
  2. 8ab10066eb74a811ac88eef69d498470139da3c3184dafa55e2fb87efe91f66c — as at 2026-10-21 13:00:35 UTC, lines 213–222, list 130035Z.txt
  3. 08b1387eab50e23936467aa9683690f5ab6567a533b819c03417d378427d1f57 — as at 2026-10-21 13:23:37 UTC, lines 213–224 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–222 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 a9359a7741ef5f7aad7436e022a60813e2fc2f9ce76e130abe21dc820e59bd8c

The intake for the score closed at Wed, Oct 21, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-21T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 13:23:23 UTC
  4. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 13:23:37 UTC
  5. hash of the run sealed
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. Bitcoin block 972483 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)
  8. the open: intake closes, reference prices
  9. the day scored

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=214) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Claude12:30:0912:44:48 0338db5a08f8———
council · step 1Step 5 Preview12:30:0912:32:52 9c129feb1d18———
council · step 1Meta AI12:30:09————
council · step 1Gemini12:30:0912:35:35 338d52e1c2f9———
council · step 1ChatGPT12:30:0912:40:04 7b99b8c52ae3———
council · step 1Grok12:30:0912:33:03 816b92b0ddf9———
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)12:30:0912:43:14 1729d6c00ec8———
council · step 1DeepSeek12:30:0912:33:06 7429157931ba———
council · step 1kimi12:30:09————
council · step 1Z.ai12:30:0912:44:59 e67b3184da3f———
council · step 2Meta AI13:00:2113:23:23 791800f005f0———
council · step 2kimi13:00:21————
council-cbGemini14:33:2214:36:01 d81dd9406ed3———
council-cbClaude14:33:2214:39:06 6832c29555a6———
council-cbStep 5 Preview14:33:2214:34:53 477321a8d658———
council-cbZ.ai14:33:2214:37:27 94b756ce3ef6———
council-cbDeepSeek14:33:2214:35:12 1f46c781cbbb———
council-mod2Claude15:16:5315:33:09 0416761cd7df———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
033434Z.txt1–212a50531dfb3916930…
041639Z.txt1–212a50531dfb3916930…
053508Z.txt1–212a50531dfb3916930…
073417Z.txt1–212a50531dfb3916930…
093412Z.txt1–212a50531dfb3916930…
113501Z.txt1–212a50531dfb3916930…
123009Z.txt1–2137b956e4622c180bc…
123011Z.txt1–2137b956e4622c180bc…
123253Z.txt1–2137b956e4622c180bc…
124004Z.txt1–2137b956e4622c180bc…
130019Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
130035Z.txt1–222a9359a7741ef5f7a…
132337Z.txt1–224dc2d5fb033a4fadf…
143325Z.txt1–224dc2d5fb033a4fadf…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when its list was signed
verdict file

Own event. An answer sealed after the shared reference counts from its own Bitcoin reference and stays out of the shared statistics: Meta AI — own reference 13:23:37Z → bar 13:24Z, 83,677.08. Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

20 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-28 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 18,599 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-28 20:43:30 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 623 of 623 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=213 · cb_packet · · seal 223feff5d5b54a79a932d3d60bd8edcb07778de0102993a3f23c4572574cecd0 · link 27de5672086563a0bcc987fc38dc605ca9f19cc10f63b6138fe9af6b27f5769a — a record of the book · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  2. n=214 · run · · seal af66fcecf07b07c3a5a293a17a14fdc895982cbc04918eccbf8ff38b2c863b9f · link 85c3573826b5e84bcbd92de7c817a0244e110eed88974ae3d2abf713d6002e97 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  3. n=215 · answer · stepfun · seal c3c0f9eeaf0ade4c7f61a1649ebcc08c499d93e2f68d78b2147d94042bda5157 · link 45c3736ee2afd908a33d5fa8e56d20f68b17e177be16a34af5d8f52d13020c54 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  4. n=216 · answer · grok · seal a202899f367919d1069bccc2887f2a1424a29eab95a3d235c59efc70636be599 · link 0beb5bc01ff7da9aa21ceff435331591743e03c3fcf6a4005ff833f70eae21eb — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  5. n=217 · answer · deepseek · seal 9c744534adba19e7ebc18fbc914f6b07bd46e9c6cea75147f8f1fa623f9190d0 · link aea04626e956d676668d69bdf9888e3843b7b3bf14ab1ea8b308f03111df836e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  6. n=218 · answer · gemini · seal a6df7f148e55e2a631702b63f7f037824c1197dfaf34d67ec4d5922cbc0833e6 · link e0d47146e349d9a490cff7f7ecbb0360bc9d443a950fc83c9ad45164a7397056 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  7. n=219 · answer · chatgpt · seal 797f6421ae5d16c66affff10bc2b93b60019b841b186dc7dd369ce66687bb4a2 · link 3802a54b5f441e480a91e2718621a4503f63d3035515fc4275d2e626c1d58149 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  8. n=220 · answer · mimo · seal bb31e3b814c6779b140bb7ad8314b2779cc0a87f7c7517abde6af8c9c7c1b02c · link fef81d60ef09030661057a2018bb6c99e0be04e9fba68e74790bd95366076e84 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  9. n=221 · answer · claude · seal 055d3988dce81148268431e813696c1585e32445a5a5c5e69d736a4c181bec11 · link c5491bcd82e904542a7284cb892022e9b06cb6e930559d77a051ec767d4f4b30 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  10. n=222 · answer · zai · seal d000ebef098a06bd3b3d6c120966ef772f586caedd2f37ff1a045d4348525f0f · link e28f67e917496a6e9bde6db277b8859eda407d4ef34d0d12bee6c60bf02309b6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130019Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  11. n=223 · ask_version · · seal 45314beb98cedd80cefe70d8a18268a4f5182541ae89bdc9fe54c614651c57ce · link 2571e9cf8bd388c41b355e09aa990249c1bea0539996359fc2cb18a4b32a2aae — a record of the book · stamped in 132337Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=224 · answer · meta · seal 0b2b57b47ecb22eb493bec3029a7c44cf7eacb82feaa2a520cfa6684577c460b · link 18d33ee6a3b20ddc7f4764cf048e1384971397aa7995d52d38d5d3f35c27604e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132337Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=225 · closed_book · stepfun · seal 1b69f2d05af6366cad012b74773661da250fdbfe85c37b7378e1462e23ce07d2 · link fd238f64511c30346f85f5dcf34f99e84e07343aa67731532c8fa746fdb0012a — a record of the book · stamped later in 144734Z.txt (2026-10-21 14:47:34 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=226 · closed_book · deepseek · seal 5405461d9aa165fbe769519be516302230f31f4f47128d84a987d542d0af8e3b · link a61e15a4399b6d25e1b838651aef70ae4c2d08272d83556da36b2a9c3d60f904 — a record of the book · stamped later in 144734Z.txt (2026-10-21 14:47:34 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=227 · closed_book · gemini · seal 0b171ecd7ecfe509fd3bc110c47e99af3834f0f1d435eb925a83b0fdf8f30248 · link cbde9fb4bf8c00f499d497a4827dcff2ae4df4df6c560b3a2b1dc0716a12e129 — a record of the book · stamped later in 151733Z.txt (2026-10-21 15:17:33 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=228 · closed_book · zai · seal 5727cc6c40638a128f452c566f1bbde3407b57637e04c2c0b73ed1402921fc63 · link e9115bf5b23fa6897f96da117893cdab4b2db0dab275e2428de4897ec2a21028 — a record of the book · stamped later in 151733Z.txt (2026-10-21 15:17:33 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=229 · closed_book · claude · seal b5c39b6356f757d85af475af6213138d9d00458fd35403996c4b2fdc7f3a9980 · link 6d57d4179eff8aefb19b6096185a79045aed8c4201108a7eedb5dc267d55f8b7 — a record of the book · stamped later in 151733Z.txt (2026-10-21 15:17:33 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=230 · closed_book · meta · seal f479c0421b48d5e83eaca4219476e21bdc4c27821c3c8317751b17b3da97585f · link e51854b4aaa7c75920898840736fd0d0a68db504f704179dd784a42f589dc03b — a record of the book · stamped later in 151733Z.txt (2026-10-21 15:17:33 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=233 · portfolio · · seal 8411b8290b243f5da8396fdac029c7dc8a96a36bb8357e45745f6f4f5bf0d9df · link c4362795578bbf65fe9077a93edd6fdd94482a30d11211fbc9b6882b47ecc6f2 — the books of the forecasts, valued at the close · stamped later in 210003Z.txt (2026-10-21 21:00:03 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  20. n=234 · score · · seal 0eff425db1e4a689c4b153511cf555fb023a08d0fbd09ba6a3d5d6895a187a50 · link c3e9c1bc6c3bd79ae92a8d1482fd1e80247b7fb3ad6383b301f92c63b6036d43 — the forecast score of the day · stamped later in 210003Z.txt (2026-10-21 21:00:03 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  21. n=235 · score_h · · seal 8ee3c36c471b51cb3a36e4ecddba0ba9080554a0cac4561e2bcd841e890a949d · link 4e7dc8b7ad04c49cb11bd9e8b36d8e6dc4b00dd74c6ca7f9e8d4c92f72b095db — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 210003Z.txt (2026-10-21 21:00:03 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  22. n=236 · arena · · seal 75a787729e601abbde7142662777371f491f0612f2fc27bc0ef78249ff1f53e2 · link bb0af8b3b5eb86bd7b6f940f408bf83770c818976aa4e4fd4fbdca2e9aaec59f — the league's session: trades and values · stamped later in 210003Z.txt (2026-10-21 21:00:03 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  23. n=242 · experiment · · seal d3acb42e38e16d0785d4ba69b99d6d0b864b42638cc8ae09f1f30405fca68211 · link b581f523a8f8107e0856b7d4f99b18767d0168cf319d4786c1c34c5935a94f2e — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 210003Z.txt (2026-10-21 21:00:03 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA
  24. n=267 · crowd · · seal dbd02f0d7f981df259311251b4e3b9907d837e4e6fa6547311257670bf3070ad · link fc96d41af4cb65fd8590a5c809cc77ad1b4235ef7c76d5e69875afad5e57ed8f — a record of the book · stamped later in 163005Z.txt (2026-10-22 16:30:05 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  25. n=520 · score_h · · seal 9189f5ef9b70e8db3f1fcc0d4cf7b09becc05f9d2b28e744c0064dd28f395097 · link 34b586e9387c0d8f6ca18d013ce2bb1822ab16395424adcdcd404d25fba9ee39 — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 135327Z.txt (2026-10-28 13:53:27 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  26. n=522 · experiment · · seal 4f4102768b0c0c6ccc714a6e0dc997de552989a75deaa1629adbd7c7994ed4b6 · link e398a1249975b0d8a57832a61226c10b44a32341058f96bbb5a4c1915f7ce21f — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 145308Z.txt (2026-10-28 14:53:08 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →