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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-22-am

All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 12:33:01–13:20:07 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo at 13:00:17 and 13:23:29 UTC (the latest — Gemini, Meta AI, 6 min 31 s before the open).

Hash of the run: 685b6e40e9aaa47064ff359226bd02c1391d7f7c6ef35ab469b8d85bf689b7ea · sealed 2026-10-22T13:00:16Z

Covers lines 253–264 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-22 13:00:16 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-22 13:23:26 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. a5f034a11f1c0df2c067213341cec6ba603fd622175c6d0711cdca9a6693c3d2 — as at 2026-10-22 12:30:35 UTC, lines 253–253, list 123035Z.txt
  2. 33a872f9c3b0cf2eb551a835e105759433f80d42782f55b6ccb26b1e853de9bf — as at 2026-10-22 13:18:55 UTC, lines 253–261, list 131855Z.txt
  3. 685b6e40e9aaa47064ff359226bd02c1391d7f7c6ef35ab469b8d85bf689b7ea — as at 2026-10-22 13:23:26 UTC, lines 253–264 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–261 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 8b205f9e54364615e6c82d6aa84647e081aa8580a9ae165478cc73f831ca50c5

The intake for the score closed at Thu, Oct 22, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-22T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 13:20:07 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 13:23:29 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices
  8. Bitcoin block 972621 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)
  9. the day scored

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=254) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Claude12:30:3512:46:05 8f92a0901f18n=259 · 13:00:16124945Z.txt219 s
council · step 1ChatGPT12:30:3512:44:19 b039af858877n=258 · 13:00:16124419Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Meta AI12:30:35————
council · step 1Grok12:30:3512:37:01 17fa61a3fb92n=257 · 13:00:16124419Z.txt437 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)12:30:3612:47:51 0fa2788e0717n=260 · 13:00:16124945Z.txt113 s
council · step 1Gemini12:30:36————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview12:30:3612:34:17 35186972394an=256 · 13:00:16123506Z.txt48 s
council · step 1DeepSeek12:30:3612:33:01 8c0455b64fe1n=255 · 13:00:16123302Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Z.ai12:30:3612:49:45 3feb33b930fdn=261 · 13:00:16124945Z.txt0 s
council · step 1kimi12:30:36————
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)12:30:36————
council · step 1wenxin12:30:36————
council · step 1Qwen12:30:36————
council · step 1Amazon Nova12:30:42————
council · step 2wenxin13:00:19————
council · step 2Gemini13:00:1913:18:54 aeb6a9390554n=263 · 13:23:26131855Z.txt0 s
council · step 2Meta AI13:00:1913:20:07 1606b4f9a37en=264 · 13:23:26132319Z.txt192 s
council · step 2kimi13:23:19————
council · step 2Qwen13:23:19————
council-bench-retry-pro_portfolioMeta AI13:27:2613:41:11 8ac62f55dd48———
council-mod2Claude15:12:4115:31:35 75ce515c11fc———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
000011Z.txt1–242d8656a8f5ba9beea…
011257Z.txt1–242d8656a8f5ba9beea…
011436Z.txt1–242d8656a8f5ba9beea…
013218Z.txt1–242d8656a8f5ba9beea…
013504Z.txt1–251c75a1622365f0837…
021306Z.txt1–251c75a1622365f0837…
021359Z.txt1–251c75a1622365f0837…
023300Z.txt1–251c75a1622365f0837…
033427Z.txt1–2527020378b7d8b271d…
053417Z.txt1–2527020378b7d8b271d…
073514Z.txt1–2527020378b7d8b271d…
093515Z.txt1–2527020378b7d8b271d…
113446Z.txt1–2527020378b7d8b271d…
123035Z.txt1–2535ae267884f492665…
123037Z.txt1–2535ae267884f492665…
123302Z.txt1–2535ae267884f492665…
123506Z.txt1–2535ae267884f492665…
124419Z.txt1–2535ae267884f492665…
124945Z.txt1–2535ae267884f492665…
130017Z.txt1–5137870138f7fdbe0b9…
130021Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
131855Z.txt1–2618b205f9e54364615…
132319Z.txt1–2618b205f9e54364615…
132320Z.txt1–2618b205f9e54364615…
132329Z.txt1–264c456f2c6dda57b46…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when its list was signed
verdict file

Lists signed: 13:00:17, 13:23:29 · answers sealed in the book 12:33:01–13:20:07 · public: 13:01, 13:24 (UTC)

Own event. An answer sealed after the shared reference counts from its own Bitcoin reference and stays out of the shared statistics: Gemini, Meta AI — own reference 13:23:26Z → bar 13:24Z, 81,727.42. Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

29 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-28 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 18,599 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-28 20:43:30 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 623 of 623 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=253 · cb_packet · · seal 2ce64668ce5d75eb1210e8aac0a9b7f9eea056805bb3005480a46311f721b4cb · link fff0ef654a1f8f9181136273b67dd030412e3c9b3a7ca06aaf97d8cf6ca27bb1 — a record of the book · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=254 · run · · seal 9da621f11c88aaf08b820d0c32a17740fae51f9e92947d0d6ffa5f5ddd8ec9d7 · link d143b0381278ac3c20f5fb9faa1733f7211cbee48294f91ce63ac08682b8ab22 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=255 · answer · deepseek · seal e84764c48cbe5b39da14327b8f1811b9efdd0bf79d674a7d6ab39a337502c703 · link 7fdcdb68a4fae654525db80306db60532d61393be46613f0e231489e56346866 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=256 · answer · stepfun · seal 4763be03c2054f4ab0084d1f8b0c9eeda3181805645526e34ae3e76a22edddd9 · link 65b3ef721a8b0c61e239e75dc9a60db80b180cd9c66bb4383a46fae578e77486 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=257 · answer · grok · seal 2105a2e0ce1ec0e01a515f533d6acd7b2cd8d4a895d8c511ec9bf502531582fe · link 0d4ed4abbc7c5356d7835cfa7b45a8821189f34445288cf3f060f113657cbd4a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=258 · answer · chatgpt · seal 4153c0b68f42ae58b5e5b48847fe337280e0bc09228a1a808f2193e17bfc249e · link 8a3806b60fe7a3a9427ea3cad67b74e507e8ae7fc57e0ac335ac9f2114a66d18 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=259 · answer · claude · seal 8f252c5b25f966daf4487df4ede640becd26d44effe5e7028d2c533a7da885b7 · link cbdff8b39814bf41f18e239056f5fb94cee98558a8b1ecbc51a3a2a0fd5c3415 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=260 · answer · mimo · seal 7aeca91d70e88cb9134e504b91598ae9bd5904df84d995226a5f8ae0d16fc0c7 · link 4c64d7c067c18e8d7cad827bf6dcec575786e12643f8ff1a06d9b97d6a7dbbbc — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=261 · answer · zai · seal cd6cd78196672da4ecf084903d34b991460a68ee4f7960602683c302323bdd7f · link 5ede661b7b45beae11e21236f9c619e1c1b5f6995077e659d55d7c7e00318ae0 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=262 · ask_version · · seal a5ec718bb9672f8fbb79bb0c5737c6db1014a2768d227489ce451d30f7ad43d5 · link bc4c9cd896949bdf061943700335c0f0e3b3a3589232eafa27bd8c97bc4b843b — a record of the book · stamped in 132329Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=263 · answer · gemini · seal 06eade576b578d810cef15b94cf80a3832149129e0a741f6011671a85241ae51 · link 9dec85bb758da9cd055c1799eb9e54c16aa6ceff9511c543a77299139de0fdec — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132329Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=264 · answer · meta · seal dda154bcd95419a8a28829fb5db4db79185178e0355e224245c8469b927f3eed · link 53d82e5b773c18c81d397b760cf6a13b1bbeb703e8df2196479083ecbc5cef4e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132329Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=265 · bench · meta · seal f1d2fe80e5860c66949791809648d4b712cb1db437fdcb8a17a20a9bb39388f4 · link ad44fb2c6515bf40de1388ef073b3648f23dbc0e0410c86dd7102e3a51ccb7fa — Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 134111Z.txt (2026-10-22 13:41:11 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=268 · portfolio · · seal d97021f6da489b1d40e4a32036ca63cd5c6e33667e020435ce469af2c9d98175 · link 30f4f92fa6c267e448d266da3f39d931976ec4e9e2fdd79fbc28727a0355581e — the books of the forecasts, valued at the close · stamped later in 213410Z.txt (2026-10-22 21:34:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=269 · score · · seal 0830f6ad04a68cc351c8182182e0e169ca2d46fddc5c12a0490fd39c89e332f9 · link 1448179eef757dbcc9bb79f7f575a159dcb0f1cbb7d3cb60532d8e22b06b7ac7 — the forecast score of the day · stamped later in 213410Z.txt (2026-10-22 21:34:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=270 · experiment · · seal d76484ffc9e4a87ab1f54b72df4d81f75cd683defb9bf1b4d4754912f9dc4238 · link 55170ad9073073e81c28ee22c53e18a28d3e8855d364a290a14c6ad09e399374 — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 213410Z.txt (2026-10-22 21:34:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=271 · score_h · · seal c2839c473f684564a9cb4af0e36ca86f29f8499ceed8047c9ef8e2a2aff7048c · link 293f0acd1c69fa032f0c595ee99e9a7b063fb6cdcde6ba4c16b18b79b37f4297 — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 213410Z.txt (2026-10-22 21:34:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=272 · arena · · seal 130bf4a67cdadad83266726cd1f05bc01dbc3b99ff9e5f02c5580a236e18cb83 · link c09a221726dbe954802706bce4416857c302eb16bdd1f948917e0b8aee5896f5 — the league's session: trades and values · stamped later in 213410Z.txt (2026-10-22 21:34:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=304 · crowd · · seal 6da96518f7d53396396057054da8d0c2dfd585ef76e57dcb877835fdf7f1db20 · link 4a14d34be7a25b742b9028f43e36f19d2c3cc6f6ca8a16978bddf35aab0c7ada — a record of the book · stamped later in 170005Z.txt (2026-10-23 17:00:05 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →