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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-29-am

Hash of the run: abc065f638bdbf6bdc01699b6d7f6eed24fa68fe19b8b67087938fc2f6512ade · sealed 2026-10-29T13:00:13Z

Covers lines 549–566 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-29 13:00:13 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-29 13:23:57 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. d648aec988fcc5eb5ccf6158f496a41da33305d226b8e33a3b8c41ada360c318 — as at 2026-10-29 11:15:06 UTC, lines 549–549, list 111506Z.txt
  2. c6e2d7afd95bd8399098152bb9fd616fde8e4629ecaf97cb3a918fd20369d408 — as at 2026-10-29 13:00:14 UTC, lines 549–559, list 130014Z.txt
  3. f01564475701422d8d2847645b9838279f739db278b0d7615c09d35f46fbd29c — as at 2026-10-29 13:22:37 UTC, lines 549–560, list 132237Z.txt
  4. abc065f638bdbf6bdc01699b6d7f6eed24fa68fe19b8b67087938fc2f6512ade — as at 2026-10-29 13:23:57 UTC, lines 549–566 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–560 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 04c46608e9802ae7147b8c1c6469a41d77d24d08a814f737922fdbd20bde32bd

The intake for the score closed at Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-29T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 13:53:46 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 13:23:57 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=550) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Gemini11:15:0611:22:33 b82b7c018905n=554 · 13:00:13112347Z.txt73 s
council · step 1Claude11:15:0611:28:37 53abd35fc5ben=556 · 13:00:13113106Z.txt148 s
council · step 1Meta AI11:15:06————
council · step 1Grok11:15:0611:20:46 558d29c05e0bn=552 · 13:00:13112046Z.txt0 s
council · step 1ChatGPT11:15:06————
council · step 1Kimi11:15:0611:37:02 7f54bd764b3dn=558 · 13:00:13113702Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Qwen11:15:0611:21:42 28ce208e8ff8n=553 · 13:00:13112347Z.txt124 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)11:15:0611:50:22 085dc1904b28n=559 · 13:00:13115022Z.txt0 s
council · step 1DeepSeek11:15:0611:17:01 196705c7fa0dn=551 · 13:00:13111701Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Z.ai11:15:0611:30:24 fb3b80faa95an=557 · 13:00:13113106Z.txt41 s
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)11:15:06————
council · step 1wenxin11:15:06————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview11:20:3011:28:05 1013c4c312f6n=555 · 13:00:13112805Z.txt0 s
council · step 2Amazon Nova13:00:1613:01:13 63e18bd223e9n=563 · 13:23:57130113Z.txt0 s
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)13:00:1613:23:52 6a70d42cca7bn=565 · 13:23:57132357Z.txt5 s
council · step 2ChatGPT13:00:1613:23:32 40658da112b8n=564 · 13:23:57132357Z.txt24 s
council · step 2Meta AI13:00:1613:22:37 47d3f144a32a———
council · step 2wenxin13:00:16————
council · step 2Claude13:00:1613:13:13 1f884e673382n=562 · 13:23:57131313Z.txt0 s
council · step 3wenxin13:36:01————
council-mod2Claude14:11:3414:25:34 d291e71ce8d9———
council-mod2Grok14:11:34————
council-cbGemini14:31:2514:32:58 97430ceea11f———
council-cbClaude14:31:25————
council-cbMeta AI14:31:2514:45:38 1410e8e4b2ac———
council-cbGrok14:31:2514:32:53 edfc204267fa———
council-cbNemotron + Mercury (search)14:31:2514:36:19 9fe12ca859e5———
council-cbQwen14:31:2514:38:45 c665d2649a20———
council-cbZ.ai14:31:2514:35:15 47195bca985c———
council-cbDeepSeek14:31:2514:32:32 c49d0b75e074———
council-cbStep 5 Preview14:31:2514:33:41 32c03d4cf245———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
011222Z.txt1–5383a507a768cfe863a…
011340Z.txt1–5383a507a768cfe863a…
011641Z.txt1–5383a507a768cfe863a…
013136Z.txt1–5383a507a768cfe863a…
021242Z.txt1–5474d241e0d18c9def5…
021318Z.txt1–54893a29dfc39e9c623…
111506Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
111508Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
111701Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
112030Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
112046Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
112347Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
112805Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
113106Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
113702Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
115022Z.txt1–5490ff25faabd100591…
130014Z.txt1–5592c7edc4f0d2b7262…
130016Z.txt1–5592c7edc4f0d2b7262…
130113Z.txt1–5592c7edc4f0d2b7262…
131313Z.txt1–5592c7edc4f0d2b7262…
132237Z.txt1–56004c46608e9802ae7…
132239Z.txt1–56004c46608e9802ae7…
132357Z.txt1–56674550b506a1965a7…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Forecast sealed before the 09:30 ET open: service mark digicert 2026-10-29 13:23:57 UTC, covers part of the lines (the file lists which). verdict file

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

25 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-29 14:11 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-29 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 20,149 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-29 14:01:48 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 657 of 657 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=549 · cb_packet · · seal 6c297deeba438c6d4bbcc10c19bcf7151d23e54ae3b179d25996e0400913fe19 · link 9c77d8b9b621aba37dd1b1956e060c751f8e9a85eec33fbd0b0721394b28d9fb — a record of the book · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=550 · run · · seal db6319bbb7ab2c3e8f3d36156acf67693d46738e870ccdaaae6edeea00bbff48 · link 93455649e63685e07c124cde3f02f678f8524d3d10e72832820060779ade6407 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=551 · answer · deepseek · seal 91fc09c8c9024f25ca38366d1355ffecb88edc2def58c9f097cd35bbf6508e17 · link 639ad5b6081f4dc3064a3380c7969cbab5ee97703722b445236c8902da7e857d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=552 · answer · grok · seal 81bcfbc04b4ad7071e6ed1cdc12fea488785c027b5e4f2fb6bb088d969eecf53 · link f7b644c95effbc9ed3b152d56e517cdd04c61527789a0a8b63d2c669aac8d2e1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=553 · answer · qwen · seal 2a7aa9d4b19f03313fb4affa761d5a21fa14e2d33797dcc2df84fcea2b88d9ad · link de843c18d98a3acc75c764d84d6f477504f97c9248a72c91554d81b75b0d9d98 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=554 · answer · gemini · seal 22494719dacbbc86549df187424220fb7f06a3799a2194d17326f1fc7635b068 · link dd00d80f14d1720fe86077b220348f6475cea278f02432db7959f5e0c99fc183 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=555 · answer · stepfun · seal 40569696952c9c7bd8ce1e3290e3bf4a58586c694cbf9896bc29f84385d1dad7 · link 304326bc3825599fdc7594536ec97593f586032202ff2a9bf7ccbc750ccdab99 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=556 · answer · claude · seal 0a0e78a93b37f7df694c0bdd6af6b36a834b114ed083124039f16def52eeb817 · link 048cfb5a7044155eb7002b62b748fd1e9c068eb6e67c82c9f034306186caa77f — forecast · league · Pro league · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=557 · answer · zai · seal 44b51c3ff5af54d7aea3db630af9444a716a54cbf6778fdc3932d295fc6441fc · link 28cc3e311f46a80359053af44e2e65f34b4a21ddcd805ca1a0fc0683df3ec5ab — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=558 · answer · kimi · seal b8ed85165f41f3f6eaf9f94c07724a9d54dcdd467aa06c7823e9ad0021804892 · link 1af24d93552302f3a6d3faccd8fcc6dce1154f54d7edbd95672aa11728d03fdf — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=559 · answer · mimo · seal 479f4f8b6bd22d569de811a5703100aeb58178ea4e7c3fcdf8ba62058439f00d · link f7ef0b4f003387a955ad954336b5196c0c5c8ab2c4a9e0a110dbee5ae5206cf1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130014Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=560 · answer · meta · seal cc8f8fca5acc8e48976713e61945bf2a2f845da4ef35c914dcf5819b5f4f27db · link 5b2a5cfefd8e4c1858848b3eabf134ad9991fcfc41111476c9ee988ee64416fb — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132237Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=566 · addition · meta · seal 78502b5b354b0de16625abd5f48da926e5cb1d125c651cde4c3cd575ceee1cb1 · link bb8b2a12d34ac9dc7df0b6d23d912fb8511d5dccccf6489d22aa11a11b8ee2e4 — an addition to line n=560 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=561 · ask_version · · seal 6b4fffb412019b6223ec28050db2e544f3636565d5256669d7dfdaabab5943c2 · link bea28db19bfc911e308c23dbec31d1edfafa4e95963fb14aa9ba2a0a227f3181 — a record of the book · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=562 · answer · claude · seal c3a567949ef7dc02691510d5ebd2a3120c8cc58fe386103364cb8c5fbdb7613c · link 63c5ed7341f4bc54e1040574f0ae83e4945e91e4027428636e506998bd458981 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=563 · answer · nova · seal a998352eda662ec3af2e3ac66b38fa972766cd066a697b5509e42b531cab575b · link 0a2926a671719321377d0a9bd7eb6b8a069bbbfe2f05c06a4e91b202307c4908 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=564 · answer · chatgpt · seal 0a3181c916f79de542bb30842a083569802ad4eebf543233cb597dc173a67a9c · link edcd0b145dbd98692c07edeec2b943adee360bffdcaded95d673303dbd7b498a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=565 · answer · nemotron · seal fe370ae7cb074220ca0dd35f31303a9c3ea854ea1df74272d0af4843c8422c72 · link e0d4d38e69b4df7f277410c98513ba63ad24f466402f0ab882f5c9dcf9521003 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=568 · answer · wenxin · seal bedc5f80543763784126178364d8a6443e8ec3a285b0ce397079f11928ae46a1 · link 04f71aa523136abb0651a86cb8f526e246cdbc614f259c4e875315da558666fd — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 135346Z.txt (2026-10-29 13:53:46 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  20. n=570 · closed_book · deepseek · seal aa8a52eda607c6b53908e2d207b588f45fd5a407690f0b9bca759b475291186d · link 68b905f6d888c232a7a0c7fde2464e52d48235a199b4459ca05a32777abf008a — a record of the book · stamped later in 144538Z.txt (2026-10-29 14:45:38 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  21. n=571 · closed_book · grok · seal 3028eafb911265ae68d11cdf88d4ebc9a818c2b9457b69b901112954355a0700 · link c1dd3a4c3f31f87085d0c9eded21a7867ba3768b3d43a35014d9fda363c27663 — a record of the book · stamped later in 144538Z.txt (2026-10-29 14:45:38 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  22. n=572 · closed_book · gemini · seal 9573b8899b63ba4ea458afbb08dc1e1ab5054067bb9c9740b983dcfdfaf7c109 · link 38656fd87b6fed68c50d2398e21589e332c50a7d19e17f8d3041f7b280749a41 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  23. n=573 · closed_book · stepfun · seal 8378fe22e5d90ee42f2e5b41ff66c57a503d80b7415df34a47b0ebe95931eb9b · link 024522cb795c837132b3c4188e76b0cb1d15e2d08651a3603d32588bbe270ead — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  24. n=574 · closed_book · zai · seal 06cbf7fb78a0a37ae129727f40cafd0b899af178c57bb5342382f1ff1d32df03 · link 20216602e233646b2eee36c9a0d2e14226ada2048616f70ef1cbc9ff2235f7ae — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  25. n=575 · closed_book · nemotron · seal 5708d71271671f3db2eee70247b7962f709217c362755aae71c87212bef9ca28 · link 1588fbd95c541f3d2d8b6f0ac5859636dfb2e0a1f755a2253e33716397a917af — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  26. n=576 · closed_book · qwen · seal f9405da57a03575b9ed419545e4a3863410df328f8f6c36fe5825b1cf125da7b · link c2b1175ece8a46b70ea92152973f03e331efa7f576727bce01731da5f681ee5e — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  27. n=577 · closed_book · meta · seal e51e8c3982f5dbc88cd248906aa5a25e7f155a29720ba6cc002c2b0c41cd124c · link 7fdd717af02429ac01849e638e58f732e86ca5fc6e1b40b23c67ddbc5004593a — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet

Method and conflicts →