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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-30-am

All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 10:43:40–13:23:19 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, Sectigo from 13:00:18 to 13:23:51 UTC (the latest — Amazon Nova, Meta AI, 6 min 9 s before the open).

Hash of the run: f9f9cebe9b72afccf2b7d420ab0a4520ad89ce9cd410dbca4782774d58a0d818 · sealed 2026-10-30T13:00:17Z

Covers lines 599–616 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-30 13:00:17 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-30 13:23:51 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. 17996e32acf2a15835f761126d63c2dbade09ae3678693ebbcc7db5ffda5df84 — as at 2026-10-30 10:40:48 UTC, lines 599–600, list 104048Z.txt
  2. b041c15474c44870ddbaeb5150bd43032ad50a274901f3372906075530a6438d — as at 2026-10-30 13:00:18 UTC, lines 599–611, list 130018Z.txt
  3. 781b0ed446d6fe2f738d098db6a310111c9e4c25a92e7e097f77c86e7a0e99b4 — as at 2026-10-30 13:23:17 UTC, lines 599–612, list 132317Z.txt
  4. f9f9cebe9b72afccf2b7d420ab0a4520ad89ce9cd410dbca4782774d58a0d818 — as at 2026-10-30 13:23:51 UTC, lines 599–616 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–612 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 a498f0f70ccb3c24c415c79999d9ab09f7f03803cc7740cdd51085871059a5a2

The intake for the score closed at Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-30T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 13:23:19 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 13:23:51 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=601) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Meta AI10:40:48————
council · step 1Gemini10:40:4810:48:15 ebda4a01359cn=605 · 13:00:18104942Z.txt87 s
council · step 1Claude10:40:4810:57:49 df99e0619a43n=610 · 13:00:18105915Z.txt86 s
council · step 1Grok10:40:4810:45:02 b4a38071b541n=604 · 13:00:18104641Z.txt99 s
council · step 1ChatGPT10:40:4810:54:24 b320cf36b96dn=609 · 13:00:18105614Z.txt110 s
council · step 1Qwen10:40:4810:48:44 74d15378a6d6n=606 · 13:00:18104942Z.txt57 s
council · step 1Kimi10:40:4810:53:14 dee8fcf6df18n=607 · 13:00:18105314Z.txt0 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)10:40:4810:58:23 6637a69d0492n=611 · 13:00:18105915Z.txt51 s
council · step 1Z.ai10:40:4810:54:09 33c1af61ad03n=608 · 13:00:18105614Z.txt124 s
council · step 1DeepSeek10:40:4810:43:40 5b94e4457af1n=602 · 13:00:18104341Z.txt1 s
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)10:40:48————
council · step 1wenxin10:40:48————
council · step 1Amazon Nova10:40:48————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview10:40:4810:44:45 85f43f557d68n=603 · 13:00:18104641Z.txt116 s
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)13:00:2013:23:11 e1f53fcd0dd7———
council · step 2Meta AI13:00:2013:23:19 a74525def497n=615 · 13:23:51132351Z.txt32 s
council · step 2Amazon Nova13:00:2013:12:38 a9228a3a7fb2n=614 · 13:23:51131238Z.txt0 s
council · step 2wenxin13:00:20————
council-bench-retry-portfolioNemotron + Mercury (search)13:27:5313:28:48 a2f26e258646———
council · step 3wenxin13:29:23————
council · step 4wenxin13:53:46————

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
011122Z.txt1–589eb5c19b80bc45e4a…
011447Z.txt1–589eb5c19b80bc45e4a…
013059Z.txt1–589eb5c19b80bc45e4a…
021510Z.txt1–596708b3c0fcd0b0845…
051509Z.txt1–596708b3c0fcd0b0845…
051854Z.txt1–59896e31700f21ad892…
104048Z.txt1–60025f33614ad7e2cd3…
104050Z.txt1–60025f33614ad7e2cd3…
104341Z.txt1–60025f33614ad7e2cd3…
104641Z.txt1–60025f33614ad7e2cd3…
104942Z.txt1–60025f33614ad7e2cd3…
105314Z.txt1–60025f33614ad7e2cd3…
105614Z.txt1–60025f33614ad7e2cd3…
105915Z.txt1–60025f33614ad7e2cd3…
130018Z.txt1–611624f484eb91052c2…
130020Z.txt1–611624f484eb91052c2…
130022Z.txt1–611624f484eb91052c2…
131238Z.txt1–611624f484eb91052c2…
132317Z.txt1–612a498f0f70ccb3c24…
132351Z.txt1–61654bd88040e2ced10…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when its list was signed
verdict file

Lists signed: 13:00:18, 13:23:17, 13:23:51 · answers sealed in the book 10:43:40–13:23:19 · public: 13:02, 13:25 (UTC)

Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

26 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-30 14:30 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-30 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 21,829 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-30 13:49:07 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 695 of 695 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=599 · cb_packet · · seal fc68c469d6c78601332b33991481300539c27238eda9489bff6981a838450c39 · link f948e3b301463723d5f507de4252961fe31d12706d4da1351d05b997f6d196c6 — a record of the book · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=600 · swap · · seal bcca0858ac3156d3aa791e6176c8c28eb55af4345565af0f2ca7484de903b5c2 · link 2f602c5266a7b0658c12f6e063409f7972af89eca6b47f5799a2b2f85a0f3936 — a record of the book · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=601 · run · · seal 4571aaa4a64bc759f735be4358ae171cf7d1e09ed7ba50763c5a8aefbb808232 · link 15d3d5f93a2c7f391ef6601506011de4c17f3b607478ec96e9cb642b2d485af1 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=602 · answer · deepseek · seal 5c2f3e460ae229df26ae260c569c5810e78f699a58153c14e050e2328522a30b · link 15d4a9c1a265d76e4c6674ca8709c92276d1b00feb632d00fe1e6c9e6511b644 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=603 · answer · stepfun · seal cae608cacd147770615b3c2fb05be2c13954982a36b8f6b9c483d042ee94f920 · link 11d611c81fe6746d9b78b4ae8ed118b84bcaf2ad0d7ad1c82d685da873337c40 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=604 · answer · grok · seal abf27ef6a88f05e40065ede5eb54a051fb311c22bb7d6d520d53077f9bfde4a7 · link 60248c28d30ec0e0372984b4786513a3f22cf25e2295670667dc0b9cae3e7a5c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=605 · answer · gemini · seal 91b15a30b4382e9a6c43ddf5cfd4fc9ba0cb40444883275e773c595327f10375 · link d1d0e24ddf59663f614ba55562be288145cf836d698b323ec6be5c471470a82b — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=606 · answer · qwen · seal 494961e62158c564e2e75455a6213a56baaacb025b3e1d4f101c083d44081a8d · link e04a9265aec6c631a291a657bbf789603cb947b83bb963f024a8870761b6ccbe — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=607 · answer · kimi · seal fcbf5bc072488d1360a6c9136e275f56de05faef01db61baf18e065b898c40b5 · link 19138e088f96048bccb4a31c4cb886580a9868c91ff9b246b4a0fe9f094bf943 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=608 · answer · zai · seal b394a65baca15d2ab4f04ff6606a4bafdf2f87f4a6bd231ace82af3939a30f7c · link 1c696be078dee4eb77c70b97d74184202d035ff0d556b18802d30a1fe6886e47 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=609 · answer · chatgpt · seal 273740c4d498bcd3baaaec6174603d3c9f075e5c9e580fc80767c1c252b3f326 · link 1f9853df8b78dcdf82f0ba31f4d18a453b8ed2b8536840b8684a64a801ca7f81 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=610 · answer · claude · seal 8c792dc9661e88bc2f5bb72f35d45a90babfdbed333510709b58ef05767e8dc2 · link 71af74748ac4c8d29b5e395c9bb79e3e87605adddde53ddabd365ada2940a377 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=611 · answer · mimo · seal 401c4c6cb7353173eb096eab2b113fcd2173493c53953fa3bb74325ec061b379 · link bd0cec8df38c0a55de3ae029e4068a2df7909658cb3c4fcc59d20d867a090e98 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130018Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=612 · answer · nemotron · seal 137baff76cff46c2c31f68fcd88cf243cd0c5eeb4e7858eeaf907c842ce28744 · link 33e7a385895c2cb8cc3823e7bbb80f172c2fb3c5d5ce63250871917ab1393ed9 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132317Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=616 · addition · nemotron · seal 533dec8e66b197a4f4a9c7d903860804a3d9e583995aa74d87c5860be5099e13 · link 329b58f6905774b93aff031e23a4870f73604d7a0ba57cc49d8d45c0c59d1219 — an addition to line n=612 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 132351Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=613 · ask_version · · seal 1d4ac8d249675fa469cc74772eb23bb2b2a27a638e816ed00d8b326810de688b · link b2ca3fb48bd9a1fc5aebc7c6b3181a0e0e45a9451dd32c49339c69240cd2b6c7 — a record of the book · stamped in 132351Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=614 · answer · nova · seal 068a6c2d13166b34462ae371ff005570c6a6046f7516b797ed78e256ca1f320c · link 0878144d0763b40df4f366e89c2b4b339260a6b53e5f385a349fd63022ef676a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132351Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=615 · answer · meta · seal f026841ec672a475b574d1d90084761729dc2e366ee4c4da090f0a63ab615667 · link 7f441ed674b58ad390dca86682485c76f0c991322b62222e1d4c5fcaca215cf3 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132351Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=617 · bench · nemotron · seal 5eb8c591cf3c3efccb5777782f025cad0a8f006631c5c7f34870fc2d96f7578d · link 94bc239cbf23776a3cfbd0023d9d0d811fe5473efb02b1c2420568bb0d99f264 — league · asked again · stamped later in 132913Z.txt (2026-10-30 13:29:13 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →