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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-31-btc

All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 13:14:28–15:15:30 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services Sectigo from 14:22:32 to 15:15:41 UTC (the latest — Nemotron + Mercury (search), 47 h 14 min before the open).

Hash of the run: 900d7846c193871c0458c583603d9bb8af5f550b185b1c35cbb3109ad7980057 · sealed 2026-10-31T14:22:32Z

Covers lines 645–667 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-31 14:22:32 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-31 15:15:39 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. bb9ee87632041a8f5a1c849f8ebf685b507b06f137e45e83a88cad7607227f6c — as at 2026-10-31 13:12:23 UTC, lines 645–646, list 131223Z.txt
  2. eb803f6147ede43e5ae2c5ca0ae1e921a058532a993f719f66d0e92d5375b1af — as at 2026-10-31 14:22:32 UTC, lines 645–659, list 142232Z.txt
  3. 9f70438b697f296e41aadd95ea4fdb122e0a1aa4e6e533748d52363824f42f75 — as at 2026-10-31 14:24:06 UTC, lines 645–660, list 142406Z.txt
  4. eb5e7fef609fc063d9786303fcdc98c1dea36aee8a214003b1eb90ed23033929 — as at 2026-10-31 14:42:20 UTC, lines 645–661, list 144220Z.txt
  5. d7eb302a85bf5973e8953e80783231dd3a24ae70d10477f5cee959221cfd40d0 — as at 2026-10-31 14:53:57 UTC, lines 645–664, list 145357Z.txt
  6. 900d7846c193871c0458c583603d9bb8af5f550b185b1c35cbb3109ad7980057 — as at 2026-10-31 15:15:39 UTC, lines 645–667 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–664 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 72603c52b510e223209b1e8851e3dea8de9b0e3f85b969871bb715734d7d99ab

The intake for the score closes at Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-02T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 15:15:30 UTC
  4. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 15:15:41 UTC
  5. hash of the run sealed
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=647) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Gemini13:12:2313:19:38 0ace248b0bdan=653 · 14:22:32132030Z.txt51 s
council · step 1Meta AI13:12:2314:21:27 fc012c35ac0fn=659 · 14:22:32142128Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Claude13:12:2313:27:38 d0386cc70d04n=657 · 14:22:32132932Z.txt114 s
council · step 1Grok13:12:2313:15:43 efde3bd4ae5dn=650 · 14:22:32131729Z.txt106 s
council · step 1Kimi13:12:2313:26:35 0c46e40df362n=656 · 14:22:32132932Z.txt177 s
council · step 1ChatGPT13:12:2313:24:55 385e14dc893fn=655 · 14:22:32132631Z.txt95 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)13:12:2313:22:17 ca9f8a271c2dn=654 · 14:22:32132331Z.txt73 s
council · step 1DeepSeek13:12:2313:14:28 c5d65ee2c807n=648 · 14:22:32131428Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Qwen13:12:2313:18:55 506b737b3559n=652 · 14:22:32132030Z.txt94 s
council · step 1Z.ai13:12:2313:34:24 2660760bd706n=658 · 14:22:32133425Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)13:12:23————
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)13:12:23————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview13:12:2313:18:36 3ddb622c18ban=651 · 14:22:32132030Z.txt113 s
council · step 1Amazon Nova13:12:2313:14:36 923148bf93fen=649 · 14:22:32131729Z.txt173 s
council-bench-retry-portfolio · step 1Amazon Nova14:22:3414:23:11 0cac0a656848———
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:24:06————
council · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:24:06————
council · step 2DeepSeek14:42:09————
council · step 2ChatGPT14:42:09————
council · step 2Amazon Nova14:42:09————
council · step 3Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:44:18————
council · step 3Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:44:1814:48:44 fa72dda6243cn=663 · 14:53:57144844Z.txt0 s
council-bench-retry-portfolio · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:53:57————
council · step 4Nemotron + Mercury (search)15:09:4415:15:30 930765dc0da0n=667 · 15:15:39151530Z.txt0 s
council-cbGemini16:20:0816:22:28 5e4e6fd88992———
council-cbMeta AI16:20:0816:33:57 dfa9f425938d———
council-cbClaude16:20:0816:26:27 71374f8340e3———
council-cbNemotron + Mercury (search)16:20:0816:23:52 758d26e22ed5———
council-cbAmazon Nova16:20:0816:21:35 617336d79012———
council-cbKimi16:20:0816:23:35 687d9d60f3a8———
council-cbQwen16:20:0816:21:21 d15ece94f5e6———
council-cbZ.ai16:20:0816:25:15 23e190057980———
council-cbDeepSeek16:20:0816:21:02 aa0dd87afccf———
council-cbStep 5 Preview16:20:0816:24:54 96b46b7d4ab1———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
000006Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
001136Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
001338Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
001648Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
002646Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
011123Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
011144Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
011444Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
011744Z.txt1–63443b79d9b2835fe88…
013030Z.txt1–636b77d330c4c60373c…
023001Z.txt1–644a53a16609d935ac4…
131223Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
131225Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
131428Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
131729Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
132030Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
132331Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
132631Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
132932Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
133425Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
142128Z.txt1–64650981ce9b47224ed…
142232Z.txt1–659bc36ea02520d6c75…
142406Z.txt1–6604829b9ab44cfc60a…
144209Z.txt1–6604829b9ab44cfc60a…
144220Z.txt1–6618cf449b07fc83384…
144418Z.txt1–6618cf449b07fc83384…
144844Z.txt1–6618cf449b07fc83384…
145357Z.txt1–66472603c52b510e223…
145358Z.txt1–66472603c52b510e223…
150845Z.txt1–665cfa47196f53d425c…
150944Z.txt1–665cfa47196f53d425c…
151530Z.txt1–665cfa47196f53d425c…
151540Z.txt1–667ea0cd8db873f783b…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when its list was signed
verdict file

Lists signed: 14:22:32, 14:53:57, 15:15:40 · answers sealed in the book 13:14:28–15:15:30 · public: 14:42, 15:18 (UTC)

Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

24 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-31 16:20 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-31 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 23,595 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-31 15:19:12 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 754 of 754 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=645 · cb_packet · · seal eb5d5f962d739b288c52b802853f0311950a796fd1d589f1ab54529702133fc2 · link 64a26097d5c6da97caacd05f1e1f8ac1b6cde3a2955f775c41fd81de5d2542e6 — a record of the book · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=646 · swap · · seal 750ea890c3f90ada898431893c419a142efd951256a7ee13bfb0ed61ac5809ff · link 7b1c765ba6c6da99ada8d680ce03aa9e3e01c3cc3e55f803c6d847e270e708fb — a record of the book · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=647 · run · · seal 7f95de66798b2cd95d58c1ea0d40e41b1bd75f25feb13ef4c1ca78f32c15294a · link 608ef7c5049442eeeba8272c8e936166a559d2032fe517686ea932a6c3326ce6 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=648 · answer · deepseek · seal d78dc77c0a0e8ea9b5690f148a4cc19c5235b983aaf7d5365bb2baf420dbc684 · link fad71752c90fb4ebed81295a85cfbd812244f38f20997e1038438cfc824bf590 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=649 · answer · nova · seal fe739d4e3a03e498fb9f980212d0ab81d977203214ff87b9b192b14b002f4218 · link b6686261507d579e890494c7c3d42eca49bda33766676a9a393ae013dbd2a1d8 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=650 · answer · grok · seal beed122fb5eb79ad8b197ae52c7280294baed9a63885cb19f1e12cdbecaaece9 · link 0f5e09ff145c8b470a04202bfaca2b2ea86ff262bb11b1ca457458ce7edbd0a5 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=651 · answer · stepfun · seal 7d94417a8dd931be4e90a72417bc7f3c4e7512555e8fcfa4a000149525e9212a · link 15a7126167d8e117629610bcbb62d19005ab7eaa473cc7b5d26537ed39358cc6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=652 · answer · qwen · seal ed5bce1b5f9d1134b4b7dfd53e65cab7b3480487049ea4b79b7a90554de3055f · link 0b9d5903ce14119596db44c091babfbae328b1aa382aa4cf8805f5a3a54a8b7c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=653 · answer · gemini · seal b452ceeca897c0b1df1f8f5bd4285eae046acdac4064c3a38a2bb5d28a5699f5 · link 794d6a5d7eedf447124d9ecc35486265bae4f805b1d74a54a2944a660e63189c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=654 · answer · mimo · seal 30fe4e2e34ffcc105c748c71b5cd9d3f48dd71ab19e0b580b7d88515f75077a1 · link 6b68242e40d13636ba6543b0179e151ebb6bd0fffc8a4b456bd9d4318c166a81 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=655 · answer · chatgpt · seal 676e40e7fbe3701a09d04c38e5a088b7b53e12731669ed1844fbd8f31b92851b · link be8022d5185f50eba3a1c01918d45dd7110aeeb6c8354955474194058b46e822 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=656 · answer · kimi · seal e58c57864c1a5f80c4a31e92e8900133990be1ff163a9cca4e3ee4fcb60a79be · link ce2f9a3a9b115e0d90efcb6b8f78f33150211c50b704f6dd63c6bb3412000e3e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=657 · answer · claude · seal 2de203f66ac600b42b22e582b99be5fccf897b6143532189389f04ad9ebba7e9 · link 54eb96e39bd8129bc83e7188e2e5fd272a867d16d8f9bf7492626224648afbf4 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=658 · answer · zai · seal 412bfcc12f14a9690ddc8677c0ea7bcb7cd13b9271a0b714813cd331ab7a7dbe · link ef29a18bd31d5ddf0301ee09010c96ca113e3bcb1a7031d74c7384869f29c772 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=659 · answer · meta · seal 1f716c9c5a622c5d76526e5e843d1e29db7305275c620d3f19fbc9a624de5c47 · link fc4d33d28b90ba39daf1f36359d5c1e6e7eaf00d5d294b872859a9ec1947032b — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142232Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=660 · bench · nova · seal 9a842405332552b4511274f59a6ad7e38198fdc0e94954f80e48dd69b312ea38 · link dc04aed6b2f6d25aeee5c2b4d06b5a01d77421689ab0626b9fd2c9155cdb6ed6 — league · asked again · stamped in 142406Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=661 · ask_version · · seal 71d92a7d883548e54bf71a5428f4023267bbf8f4f2f8d8892b50640b53bc1bfe · link 02cad40967a76f72c409652a04fd72d5877c55ec881bc885467b5b1d93525c7e — a record of the book · stamped in 144220Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=662 · ask_version · · seal b20b50ef63d0b30d31c1443a37db99ae419d708706ae75255f49bfa3f216b534 · link a275f00df0e6a85f741fc11f6c682262d850d14e0c18eb1c026aa30f68c847cb — a record of the book · stamped in 145357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=663 · answer · wenxin · seal 3d03e361e56ce1de44e32f6fe0dc8b93ae4271f15b1aaa28e7d23670b9df8b82 · link cbe7a831bbf5dc5de3b697101b9b0c57710d0ee6fe11d80b2cf136b182751994 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 145357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  20. n=664 · addition · wenxin · seal 1b95eb41aa1b32a9fc4f96372f90be88e34fe1e24248f0679a29d05c790245ac · link aa33a3d1578d1cc6b1a6a8c33e0c41843b2b44a8070419bba335ef6cab8efbf5 — an addition to line n=663 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 145357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  21. n=666 · ask_version · · seal 9ffc8435d9adc9e841a75e0a41bae786e8964d4efad6a0dee14e273569aa032a · link 04af48f6ba78f95e842d985d990fbedadd71006f0f307f96afad7a443b3a82a6 — a record of the book · stamped in 151540Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  22. n=667 · answer · nemotron · seal 76933b78bea2212a1a9796db7fefffa1333fd9902d08e31c1547b2f7b65851c0 · link a610af8e7d3c35248556634e886534230328b214e674a7f3fbfc1e300d76bafc — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 151540Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  23. n=669 · closed_book · deepseek · seal 7fb87948db5edc876657e7e9c9badb3275ebf9e85b9d84c19106e43bed79fca6 · link 9ae2c6d341f11b6017d401e4902ba967b6805530e061c7ad0eb16e37aaa24244 — a record of the book · stamped later in 163357Z.txt (2026-10-31 16:33:57 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  24. n=670 · closed_book · qwen · seal 4bbfa293004d3289db73e3286e509e3a1d42e5974683d48ef13c91f0532cdfed · link 3f5c63d384ca548a084d17ea34fda02f0e79b992fac70d2e5ab0d9f9da94967c — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  25. n=671 · closed_book · nova · seal 049b9bb9de1fc028fd248139a64648d6e86f91d6fe69ff4e72a9086434f78825 · link bf3fe717114dea2f314306cd7cde9e4eb56500f07f50b09c7f31d70c1c0af892 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  26. n=672 · closed_book · gemini · seal 5b782421265cec8b33acd20106866e7bc9bd9c66d3dcff3e265a90ac9439933e · link 7e36f8202c7288147bda17c2a7bc662ed50fe3e5d96a25c7f4042f1fae3bccd6 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  27. n=673 · closed_book · kimi · seal f75fd2cdc4d0a8cc319e20083fe0d490ba3e3b42e2387cff75bc66ed11cce5b1 · link 69e3d366325e7c999d28dbd4b87dfb99b8d53fe0d9699f59affba52b25ac0d00 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  28. n=674 · closed_book · nemotron · seal 5af4e0ff4ca496fd116691e03849543e5f8c32bdcb89b59a540a7e492a78b515 · link a63e7e2c3468bac3ee97aa33957062c8d87e1d4fe40dbfd7429c94795c2adad8 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  29. n=675 · closed_book · stepfun · seal 4fda4946581f7f7aa18972dcde921d971054db2b57fef7b475beeb971907b9dd · link a5b435a39923f6b76a9ed52746b4eca7e58b0e653b8316343168b73436d75c32 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  30. n=676 · closed_book · zai · seal 9c2125635f5375081722bdfef84946974621055f99072736b0f8d0ede5893ba3 · link acff5c8732f459d8452c54e3680a66ac8b4651503d266e98ebeb19fbd53f0dd5 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  31. n=677 · closed_book · claude · seal 35ce6c865c2a1ce214e2f5e6b0b4d57bea30e9b4076fcb70a135130ea4d73cde · link 626794e5a0c0f641503a0c57d5e0a20824755956d796c4ff3e27d1f9effd1049 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet
  32. n=678 · closed_book · meta · seal b688e7bf418a06dcad9d81d16ff915a625a8656f0fb6879e31cc3a98194c3067 · link 3d1b9871eb117ba57cf0a1fd745edbf1ce8c00cf368fc3710b6461a1e01bd410 — a record of the book · not in a stamped list yet

Method and conflicts →