AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-11-01-radar
All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 22:24:16–00:28:12 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, Sectigo from 23:26:02 to 00:28:24 UTC (the latest — Nemotron + Mercury (search), 14 h 1 min before the open).
Hash of the run: 18e251449c250903a1c37834978341cfffbb523fdbe1e5b4181bf13a3f8a19ce · sealed 2026-11-01T23:26:01Z
95a562c0b24257063ad55f2b549bfae945f551603679c3212ee15cf1766cb01d— as at 2026-11-01 22:15:44 UTC, lines 680–681, list 221544Z.txt75f6d5368e06bee151516fda50760f51f20d2dad66f7a8a435b50abdee0e8d16— as at 2026-11-01 23:26:02 UTC, lines 680–693, list 232602Z.txtacf4cd432198badef4a80ab6c2d742e80e1ff03689d8803ac8e7b653a5fac453— as at 2026-11-01 23:26:52 UTC, lines 680–694, list 232652Z.txtf4158ca2a01b9c5494459937ee81ee7931b4a3ea5e68a931298b273d06331617— as at 2026-11-01 23:55:36 UTC, lines 680–699, list 235536Z.txt18e251449c250903a1c37834978341cfffbb523fdbe1e5b4181bf13a3f8a19ce— as at 2026-11-02 00:28:24 UTC, lines 680–701 — the hash above
The intake for the score closes at Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-02T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.
The run’s day, step by step
- prices snapshot
- the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
- answers sealed in the book, the last at 00:28:12 UTC
- hash of the run sealed
- lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 00:28:24 UTC
- seal updated with the run’s next line
- the open: intake closes, reference prices
What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.
Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.
Who is in the league in this issue
The roster is sealed in the run line (n=683) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →
USA
- Gemini
gemini— Council: forecasts and the league: n=688 · forecast · league · Pro league - Claude
claude— Council: forecasts and the league: n=692 · forecast · league · Pro league - Meta AI
meta— Council: forecasts and the league: n=694 · forecast · league · Pro league - Grok
grok— Council: forecasts and the league: n=687 · forecast · league · Pro league - ChatGPT
chatgpt— Council: forecasts and the league: n=698 · forecast · league · Pro league - Nemotron + Mercury (search)
nemotron— Council: forecasts and the league: n=701 · forecast · league · Pro league; n=702 · league · asked again - Amazon Nova
nova— Council: forecasts and the league: n=696 · forecast · league · Pro league
China
- Kimi
kimi— Council: forecasts and the league: n=690 · forecast · league · Pro league - Qwen
qwen— Council: forecasts and the league: n=684 · forecast · league · Pro league - MiMo (Xiaomi)
mimo— Council: forecasts and the league: n=689 · forecast · league · Pro league - Z.ai
zai— Council: forecasts and the league: n=686 · forecast · league · Pro league - DeepSeek
deepseek— Council: forecasts and the league: n=685 · forecast · league · Pro league - Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)
wenxin— Council: forecasts and the league: n=691 · forecast · league · Pro league - Step 5 Preview
stepfun— Council: forecasts and the league: n=697 · forecast · league · Pro league
Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)
- 232602Z.txt
- 232602Z.txt.ots
- 232652Z.txt
- 232652Z.txt.ots
- 234049Z.txt
- 234049Z.txt.ots
- 234143Z.txt
- 234143Z.txt.ots
- 002824Z.txt
- 002824Z.txt.ots
- 235540Z.txt
- 235540Z.txt.ots
- 235536Z.txt
- 235536Z.txt.ots
- 235154Z.txt
- 235154Z.txt.ots
- 234724Z.txt
- 234724Z.txt.ots
- 234240Z.txt
- 234240Z.txt.ots
- 231505Z.txt
- 231505Z.txt.ots
- 224309Z.txt
- 224309Z.txt.ots
- 224008Z.txt
- 224008Z.txt.ots
- 223706Z.txt
- 223706Z.txt.ots
- 223335Z.txt
- 223335Z.txt.ots
- 223031Z.txt
- 223031Z.txt.ots
- 222725Z.txt
- 222725Z.txt.ots
- 222417Z.txt
- 222417Z.txt.ots
- 221549Z.txt
- 221549Z.txt.ots
- 221544Z.txt
- 221544Z.txt.ots
- 213413Z.txt
- 213413Z.txt.ots
- 103441Z.txt
- 103441Z.txt.ots
Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl
Check the seal in one click
Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.
232602Z.txt232652Z.txt234049Z.txt234143Z.txt002824Z.txt235540Z.txt235536Z.txt235154Z.txt234724Z.txt234240Z.txt231505Z.txt224309Z.txt224008Z.txt223706Z.txt223335Z.txt223031Z.txt222725Z.txt222417Z.txt221549Z.txt221544Z.txt213413Z.txt103441Z.txt
Who was asked
Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.
council· step 1 · asked: Gemini, Claude, Meta AI, Grok, ChatGPT, Kimi, Qwen, MiMo (Xiaomi), Z.ai, DeepSeek · spares: Nemotron + Mercury (search), Amazon Nova, Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE), Step 5 Preview · every one of them was sent the question · seal 0cdc726b1bfa1179…council-bench-retry-portfolio· step 1 · asked: Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) · every one of them was sent the question · seal 638506dc96b9ea36…council· step 2 · asked: ChatGPT, Nemotron + Mercury (search), Amazon Nova, Step 5 Preview · every one of them was sent the question · seal 25cea12a99b102e4…council-bench· asked: Nemotron + Mercury (search) · every one of them was sent the question · seal b9b872f79cc11675…council· step 3 · asked: Nemotron + Mercury (search) · every one of them was sent the question · seal 1c7f8798b714a15a…council-bench-retry-portfolio· step 2 · asked: Nemotron + Mercury (search) · every one of them was sent the question · seal d3731391a68dbc3a…council-cb· asked: Gemini, Claude, Meta AI, Grok, Nemotron + Mercury (search), Qwen, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Step 5 Preview · every one of them was sent the question · seal ddbae73881d5d019…
Each answer, step by step
For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.
| Step | Model | Sent | Raw answer | Book line | Stamped list | Stamped after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| council · step 1 | Gemini | 22:15:44 | 22:29:43 fa9fb09aa64d | n=688 · 23:26:01 | 223031Z.txt | 48 s |
| council · step 1 | Claude | 22:15:44 | 22:42:24 2b1e6392b498 | n=692 · 23:26:01 | 224309Z.txt | 44 s |
| council · step 1 | Meta AI | 22:15:44 | — | — | — | — |
| council · step 1 | Grok | 22:15:44 | 22:29:29 2a601af7e09e | n=687 · 23:26:01 | 223031Z.txt | 61 s |
| council · step 1 | ChatGPT | 22:15:44 | — | — | — | — |
| council · step 1 | Kimi | 22:15:44 | 22:37:06 0ab09d3cf1ee | n=690 · 23:26:01 | 223706Z.txt | 0 s |
| council · step 1 | Qwen | 22:15:44 | 22:24:16 365eac4ce4ad | n=684 · 23:26:01 | 222417Z.txt | 1 s |
| council · step 1 | MiMo (Xiaomi) | 22:15:44 | 22:31:56 bb9021f9117c | n=689 · 23:26:01 | 223335Z.txt | 98 s |
| council · step 1 | DeepSeek | 22:15:44 | 22:26:09 01b6ed850ddf | n=685 · 23:26:01 | 222725Z.txt | 76 s |
| council · step 1 | Z.ai | 22:15:44 | 22:26:08 04b32f03c8a5 | n=686 · 23:26:01 | 222725Z.txt | 77 s |
| council · step 1 | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 22:15:44 | — | — | — | — |
| council · step 1 | Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) | 22:15:44 | 22:39:22 d450a4c6dd6f | n=691 · 23:26:01 | 224008Z.txt | 46 s |
| council · step 1 | Step 5 Preview | 22:24:15 | — | — | — | — |
| council-bench-retry-portfolio · step 1 | Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) | 23:26:04 | — | — | — | — |
| council · step 2 | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 23:41:43 | — | — | — | — |
| council · step 2 | ChatGPT | 23:41:43 | 23:51:42 e64b57843f6e | n=698 · 23:55:26 | 235154Z.txt | 12 s |
| council · step 2 | Amazon Nova | 23:41:43 | 23:42:40 d5b1b7a1e2d0 | n=696 · 23:55:22 | 234240Z.txt | 0 s |
| council · step 2 | Step 5 Preview | 23:41:43 | 23:47:21 0473e54399c3 | n=697 · 23:55:24 | 234724Z.txt | 2 s |
| council · step 2 | Meta AI | 23:41:43 | — | — | — | — |
| council-bench | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 23:55:39 | 00:12:33 71e60417ee80 | — | — | — |
| council · step 3 | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 00:11:49 | 00:28:12 f7845fae3f32 | n=701 · 00:28:24 | 002812Z.txt | 0 s |
| council-bench-retry-portfolio · step 2 | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 00:28:24 | 00:31:01 003af5c80405 | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Gemini | 01:16:03 | 01:17:04 aa958debb62f | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Meta AI | 01:16:03 | — | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Claude | 01:16:03 | — | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Grok | 01:16:03 | 01:18:47 2ba5137b21ec | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 01:16:03 | 01:18:00 a25e967231b4 | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Qwen | 01:16:03 | 01:17:31 84333af015ae | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Z.ai | 01:16:03 | — | — | — | — |
| council-cb | DeepSeek | 01:16:03 | 01:17:25 9380c2298c0c | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Step 5 Preview | 01:16:03 | 01:19:25 5a6d067e3008 | — | — | — |
Which list covers which lines of the book
Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256
| stamped list | lines of the Council’s book | sha256 |
|---|---|---|
002824Z.txt | 1–701 | 45820f928672cb72… |
103441Z.txt | 1–679 | 2cd2753d82c477bb… |
213413Z.txt | 1–679 | 2cd2753d82c477bb… |
221544Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
221549Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
222417Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
222725Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
223031Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
223335Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
223706Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
224008Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
224309Z.txt | 1–681 | fedfb0cb01e259fd… |
231505Z.txt | 1–682 | 066e6de32fb0da82… |
232602Z.txt | 1–693 | 22afae7649e64cc0… |
232652Z.txt | 1–694 | 91296736112adbf9… |
234049Z.txt | 1–694 | 91296736112adbf9… |
234143Z.txt | 1–694 | 91296736112adbf9… |
234240Z.txt | 1–694 | 91296736112adbf9… |
234724Z.txt | 1–694 | 91296736112adbf9… |
235154Z.txt | 1–694 | 91296736112adbf9… |
235536Z.txt | 1–699 | 0e5fe7f11a99ddaf… |
235540Z.txt | 1–699 | 0e5fe7f11a99ddaf… |
Two outside clocks on every stamped list
Each answer: when its list was signed
- Claude — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- DeepSeek — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Gemini — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Grok — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Kimi — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- MiMo (Xiaomi) — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Qwen — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Z.ai — 23:26:02 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- meta — 23:26:52 UTC (15 h 3 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Amazon Nova — 23:55:36 UTC (14 h 34 min before the open), DigiCert, Sectigo
- ChatGPT — 23:55:36 UTC (14 h 34 min before the open), DigiCert, Sectigo
- Step 5 Preview — 23:55:36 UTC (14 h 34 min before the open), DigiCert, Sectigo
- Nemotron + Mercury (search) — 00:28:24 UTC (14 h 1 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
232602Z.txt· Rekor 3636879150 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:26:02 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:26:02 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:26:02 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:26:06 UTC232652Z.txt· Rekor 3636888895 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:26:52 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:26:52 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:26:52 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:26:54 UTC234049Z.txt· Rekor 3637001288 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:40:49 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:40:49 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:40:49 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:41:00 UTC234143Z.txt· Rekor 3637006274 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:41:43 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:41:43 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:41:43 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:41:45 UTC002824Z.txt· Rekor 3637237764 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-02 00:28:24 UTC · digicert 2026-11-02 00:28:24 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-02 00:28:24 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-02 00:28:28 UTC235540Z.txt· Rekor 3637053655 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:55:41 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:55:40 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:55:40 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:55:52 UTC235536Z.txt· Rekor 3637053632 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:55:40 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:55:36 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:55:36 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:55:52 UTC235154Z.txt· Rekor 3637049386 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:51:56 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:51:56 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:51:56 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:52:25 UTC234724Z.txt· Rekor 3637038381 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:47:24 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:47:24 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:47:24 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:47:32 UTC234240Z.txt· Rekor 3637012052 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:42:40 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:42:40 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:42:40 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:42:42 UTC231505Z.txt· Rekor 3636812933 — OpenTimestamps: calendar receipt — the hash is accepted; the time comes with its Bitcoin block · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 23:15:07 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 23:15:06 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 23:15:06 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 23:15:08 UTC224309Z.txt· Rekor 3636752621 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974188 · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:43:09 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:43:09 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:43:09 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:43:13 UTC224008Z.txt· Rekor 3636743788 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974188 · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:40:08 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:40:08 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:40:08 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:40:11 UTC223706Z.txt· Rekor 3636724470 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974188 · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:37:07 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:37:06 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:37:07 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:37:27 UTC223335Z.txt· Rekor 3636708026 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974187 · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:33:35 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:33:35 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:33:35 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:33:50 UTC223031Z.txt· Rekor 3636651678 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974186 (header time 2026-11-01 22:34:44 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:30:31 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:30:31 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:30:31 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:30:37 UTC222725Z.txt· Rekor 3636588604 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974186 (header time 2026-11-01 22:34:44 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:27:26 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:27:25 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:27:25 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:27:33 UTC222417Z.txt· Rekor 3636538732 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974186 (header time 2026-11-01 22:34:44 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:24:18 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:24:18 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:24:18 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:24:38 UTC221549Z.txt· Rekor 3636453233 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974185 (header time 2026-11-01 22:29:40 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:15:49 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:15:49 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:15:49 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:15:55 UTC221544Z.txt· Rekor 3636453223 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974185 (header time 2026-11-01 22:29:40 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 22:15:44 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 22:15:44 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 22:15:44 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 22:15:55 UTC213413Z.txt· Rekor 3636173599 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974182 (header time 2026-11-01 22:01:00 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 21:34:15 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 21:34:14 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 21:34:14 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 21:34:29 UTC103441Z.txt· Rekor 3627017944 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974119 (header time 2026-11-01 11:13:44 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-01 10:34:41 UTC · digicert 2026-11-01 10:34:41 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-01 10:34:44 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-01 10:35:07 UTC
Chain of lists
232602Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/231505Z.txtsha25696010f2fc65716f9bd28cc125d4ba08168863ac4e05326100f330037366b7d73· hash equal232652Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/232602Z.txtsha25693aa18e495f58b75de59043b3e880e3cb37df52e0ed328d1a7f13d1bc5a7241d· hash equal234049Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/232652Z.txtsha2560777559690f7a607933a2956d0c9081acab7f65968d1b6bbf4c046f6cc74321e· hash equal234143Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/234143Z.txtsha256e8bb3b333db69eb33d79fb89fa4d72a89b47b5b1d4fb7efa03d59bf608d86232· hash differs002824Z.txt— previous list2026-11-02/002812Z.txtsha256d20248585db32ec298224dfacdc0b23348f269cc2bb55f1c60e9f497a7e14dcd· hash equal235540Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/235536Z.txtsha25669eefc2647ae577518cc81f4568f6e28abd0c9eafd0f271f943864cd082da1b9· hash equal235536Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/235154Z.txtsha25699e8f2246e8fae389d0bea2623ffe22324213cf8b250dba6ef1100048247d282· hash equal235154Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/234724Z.txtsha256a9bcbb9161f0aaf38d1f030b8fcfb020f43c659b8cb6c03cf2e0a6ae04a4b6ac· hash equal234724Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/234240Z.txtsha256dfae127d147742d1400274768a773c3fc8a9e15b751c8f9e558a87e5a0e7383b· hash equal234240Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/234143Z.txtsha2567726fd1bcee26f05edeb6e70c76bf62dafca82a486954057013d1f00c4bf1fb1· hash equal231505Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/224309Z.txtsha25660d144e92f1fc64c4d4db51013fe208479020b761159b9af1c7bf9233156c8d1· hash equal224309Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/224008Z.txtsha2564b403dd7152041b42c8acaa92d01a5d03675214494c6c6ed0a295bb1a750e123· hash equal224008Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/223706Z.txtsha256b2271b198841c116df5b70ec88352c1be4db0e63ae32c473c8c1f29dc1d0ce41· hash equal223706Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/223335Z.txtsha25692eb3be9e34b6d4b5a0d6c3097c0bb1c0d301e180ceb31dd45153f271b4d6906· hash equal223335Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/223031Z.txtsha256085904be785d4f0d2c79b67a0e8d30967bfbe2465731635fa6fbeff7fec8b5e4· hash equal223031Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/222725Z.txtsha25688538a2b1372845b8b211d2b4489a802d42b1c09819dacc271980e2d2405f427· hash equal222725Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/222417Z.txtsha2568aac51dabbb08b95624686f6f8abd0fc8d1932da769e86335b4b7c24617ddae4· hash equal222417Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/221549Z.txtsha256e9c82b1270ae653e07dab4d002a473ca4fd0c95327eb5cf2d42fb98501f63853· hash equal221549Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/221544Z.txtsha2562632af7205a3cad28a32be8ee3257ced1ceaf21691d87897e84d4bbaeea51c95· hash equal221544Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/213413Z.txtsha256a812bf11d2b20554485614a2296f54723a465094a67a76123191079db2794026· hash equal213413Z.txt— previous list2026-11-01/103441Z.txtsha25673353352eee061b0ba96bd3317d4796b327ea7dd6085088894e0c5808a647b0e· hash equal103441Z.txt— previous list2026-10-31/203430Z.txtsha256d5e63f9d75d2acc250e17db19376070f8890b585355c60372e4e59523cea7685· hash equal
Every question sent is sealed before its answer
24 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl
- 23:41:42 UTC · council · step 2: the common part of the question is the same bytes for every seat asked; sha256
f6f1c9039a2091bdfb7f86cb867a54dc18ee685b74ce223bc3f663f4478f121d - 00:11:48 UTC · council · step 3: the common part of the question is the same bytes for every seat asked; sha256
e43279d8a3e11a8fd1e8f8a6026e2085197719fe0cae66080758bd11bd644d46
Which run counts
From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).
sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾
с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные
From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.
sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾
from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries
archive.org · 2026-11-02 01:16 UTC
✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-11-01 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json
✓ Brier recount: 24,939 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-11-02 00:40:39 UTC · environment.json
Check it yourself
Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).
- the time each service signed:
openssl ts -reply -in 232602Z.txt.freetsa.tsr -text - the signature against the service root (freetsa):
openssl ts -verify -data 232602Z.txt -in 232602Z.txt.freetsa.tsr -CAfile freetsa-cacert.pem -untrusted freetsa-tsa.crt - the signature against the service root (digicert):
openssl ts -verify -data 232602Z.txt -in 232602Z.txt.digicert.tsr -CAfile /etc/ssl/cert.pem - the signature against the service root (sectigo):
openssl ts -verify -data 232602Z.txt -in 232602Z.txt.sectigo.tsr -CAfile /etc/ssl/cert.pem - the Bitcoin block of the stamp:
ots verify 232602Z.txt.ots - the question text equals its sealed hash:
shasum -a 256 asked/1884cdd0362aa149c9d936098bb910bc2283144d6fc0cfe00732921caa566e3b.md - the whole chain of questions, line by line:
python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals, seals_asks; seals.ISSUES_DIR = '<DIR>'; sys.exit(seals_asks.main(['verify']))" - the chain of lists, each naming the one before it:
python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals; sys.exit(seals.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" - Recount the published Brier from the open files (exit code 0 — reproduced, 1 — differs):
python3 tools/replay_brier.py https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/ - each list’s entry in the public log: its digest and our key:
python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals_rekor; sys.exit(seals_rekor.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" - the chain of the Council’s book, line by line:
python3 -I tools/verify_chain.py council-book.jsonl
Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 786 of 786 · the log entries · public key
Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt
Checks by others
Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json
Copies of sealed lines
In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv
Lines of the book
n=680 · cb_packet · · seal 5097dc428dda9d78992a0df00f524bea273cba3ac502ff1e662d521ab8a46444 · link 44163fd9494026e7f94156a930ff3ffb1c527fad134b4b89a1475afbee6e42f2— a record of the book · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=681 · swap · · seal e515163959ab44367b73c16c4b94c4a88ee2866ead88b3462cea3aca4af85be2 · link 2b611d66b06654ccc97a1851e00a065941ed5abf299ca5adb3c963c9e1399513— a record of the book · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=683 · run · · seal c3cbeca553b9ae5098c5eac1bedd2df2ef34214d8361f8d4876a956ca5dec134 · link 7e8d766aa0235fa70fd12f6d041dc5ed481e2eaf72cf56b47cf70c0a7a54d2cf— the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=684 · answer · qwen · seal 4f0e709c3538295f1cd014682834f573c952d996c720384048abb160bcbbd9d5 · link 748db4f6ee3d510f554b9d225bcec303ebd6e7853b28a2feb1e54320068ab50c— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=685 · answer · deepseek · seal f9311e8c14bc6f39aa9fee19600ef3a540902af2ce93a6b7cce316c12fbd7952 · link 5d8e06936ded47f5910e20b1938803749f8c4ce7e353574c8e723841ca83d7f0— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=686 · answer · zai · seal b46d8fccc47d1b1b2d913af4b7b270c08da3602056b84a4fdae0beaeb2513010 · link 0b1327d7d542941ebcb2418efda06777bb4521ae52253fff88eee64d7172f6b9— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=687 · answer · grok · seal 1e6ce279e6ac86dd3ddca9c86679fe46c13e8df47af58cd927508dffad797640 · link a1c5746e63d04ac46b8e455bde30fa987e5956cfd5835550dcac151656baada4— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=688 · answer · gemini · seal ef8485861833cc2b8bb5842fc441f84ea3cdc7c955217e02a78ff413da5caf3f · link c188b8e230ef5425ffb69307f0a52430917e2d9d4e4c9c569f62f92ebdda0869— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=689 · answer · mimo · seal 9003c6ea2716eefa68cbd47d35f7303c320bf86ad25fcfa4efcea0dd4aa8354e · link 4d0d0453e345bd7864934adc3fa65df530a234e50e11f1a7997831b3347c7c41— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=690 · answer · kimi · seal 8d4786c9aa1b4c61fdff7750ad5216d6d76d39ef8d0858d067398e23ce757c7f · link 32964b23b531afc57dc6b42128fd5f0d8539a094773541c8134f3845074dc0eb— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=691 · answer · wenxin · seal 5e58985ccd40b05f7bd810fc93a0ca0f7d76335309ae8aaabf9fdccf56eb0e63 · link cfa9c8d2b6ff25de5b4de0c2c3356650e3faf3d6e3a54970f51b5a9a01135695— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=693 · addition · wenxin · seal 4057b44d47b64c6f64adf1a5b5cbe3cdf1eb262731abe0faa8c7cbeb8678a24b · link 173e6aca2d9e60b46a2283fbc8ea15d853af9c22ee46f115f2cb58cdb2ddfdad— an addition to line n=691 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=692 · answer · claude · seal 0a5b2a641d871d0452669d8c653c04576b5d14ddaf15edde6ca3e146a88e2ca5 · link e5cd2d9941f261108e59d0d4e2b7a9f2747d6057b0d29ab6c5c3e8238f3287c2— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232602Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=694 · answer · meta · seal 10aa81c486ca8df54d38745d4c660db50abdcafb5dbc6ffcaf5aec7aa96e15e6 · link c3542d9fa8998d21b41a93735cd2736740b48fc7c36de5639e428b6a8e308893— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 232652Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=695 · ask_version · · seal 5c6e07634c8ab263be74ccd9986fdb07d30bb7de743ee88816eda563ed80803b · link 2e47647ea0bd805f5a4202fd1ad5886107d3160762dc5aaf90e734d80d4530c6— a record of the book · stamped in 235536Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=696 · answer · nova · seal c482c6e1da68eb05d2fe29ea20aae88aafa210f45d0a17d9ee1e79b911687951 · link f3967403f26fb26ba1cd58dfa79c95c01acf7a7ddc90c764cff54543ad72fc20— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 235536Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=697 · answer · stepfun · seal 3986116495507ff3b48a27416cbff69a94fde539eaf5d56de9b2fa55d71e15b8 · link ffdd7b64390c313697249d095027b77f3cbb6d6625009b6ecbb5ee719278aea7— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 235536Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=698 · answer · chatgpt · seal 54b96c20cac12e399524fce82e49d92e524b30870d11aa6c978ce47e49c9d558 · link 8c5e73a637331fd503241574677f4a87c5e4b2f7e3e5e2a0cb95844c1de48902— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 235536Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=699 · raw_page · nemotron · seal 3562f1b601b3a82a4d1ea4163f61e7cac6bec1f14dc391dd5ac3bc4c44df9e26 · link c43fe613f79d426bbd3ca2079af45db5154e29837f2956ed387ad40226ba16bc— a record of the book · stamped in 235536Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=700 · ask_version · · seal c2ff320e37f3d92c7f18e8ebbf35bd065a3f33477ee7e055ecd96c45ccce3b24 · link cb1060d8db88d73dfb4fcad336bdfcf23b824b0470770a8d8028f2ce3a544b21— a record of the book · stamped in 002824Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=701 · answer · nemotron · seal 6242ac647b454f6f66b2db762e79927c5726c35f41f9d3222029181eadb4e168 · link 6598b99d3e684d5e81bce7b1c39b701d589ce659f8775d08cb3a0d4d96b884ff— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 002824Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=702 · bench · nemotron · seal 1f561cb2a7c37ea152deb6330a4c6ddb585be1d59c88e504f8f5cf9c4537b4e1 · link d9f68835b9ae66a3d14b8d520d19ec48e29ec8313448b5de2b070b12133beeee— league · asked again · stamped later in 003112Z.txt (2026-11-02 00:31:12 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo