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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-11-02-am

Hash of the run: 4b46a74d0d01fca7fbde520f204eb57def6ec62d336fc0b6f2ef8668436c5a19 · sealed 2026-11-02T14:00:27Z

Covers lines 734–752 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-11-02 14:00:27 UTC, seal updated 2026-11-02 14:23:52 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. 45ed2b7d3d12df3686c9585017c1fefc608dbf4a1c8f9e7748d04a7093531bf0 — as at 2026-11-02 11:40:47 UTC, lines 734–735, list 114047Z.txt
  2. ef6c1839183872aee9a8c7954dda19dab09a58f9de3bf226209a639804a909f3 — as at 2026-11-02 14:00:37 UTC, lines 734–747, list 140037Z.txt
  3. 4b46a74d0d01fca7fbde520f204eb57def6ec62d336fc0b6f2ef8668436c5a19 — as at 2026-11-02 14:23:52 UTC, lines 734–752 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–747 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 dff2986968148632177099aba8ba62d4c22930be8554fa0b01dfdc572b344955

The intake for the score closed at Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-02T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 14:53:42 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 14:23:53 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=738) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Qwen11:40:4711:45:22 f9935ccb7905n=740 · 14:00:28114623Z.txt61 s
council · step 1Gemini11:40:4711:47:09 b4db874ec0bdn=742 · 14:00:28114801Z.txt52 s
council · step 1Meta AI11:40:47————
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)11:40:4711:57:25 ea73525ef81fn=747 · 14:00:28120003Z.txt158 s
council · step 1ChatGPT11:40:4711:46:32 96c7ec780658n=741 · 14:00:28114801Z.txt88 s
council · step 1Kimi11:40:47————
council · step 1Grok11:40:4711:52:33 48c2ed2397f4n=744 · 14:00:28115402Z.txt89 s
council · step 1Z.ai11:40:4711:55:16 e5d57ff5361dn=745 · 14:00:28115703Z.txt106 s
council · step 1DeepSeek11:40:4711:45:00 085a8f1e8245n=739 · 14:00:27114500Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Claude11:40:4711:57:24 37cb17b43f2dn=746 · 14:00:28120003Z.txt159 s
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)11:40:47————
council · step 1wenxin11:40:51————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview11:43:3211:49:28 f1a6d17d6e73n=743 · 14:00:28115102Z.txt93 s
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:00:30————
council · step 2Amazon Nova14:00:3014:01:28 72afde94ccd1n=750 · 14:23:52140338Z.txt130 s
council · step 2Meta AI14:00:3114:23:13 843a95c770ef———
council · step 2wenxin14:00:31————
council · step 2Kimi14:00:3114:09:03 98e575202bd0n=751 · 14:23:52140904Z.txt0 s
council · step 2DeepSeek14:00:3714:00:37 085a8f1e8245n=739 · 14:00:27114500Z.txt0 s
council-bench-retry-portfolioStep 5 Preview14:29:0614:29:54 463d6c1ca8fa———
council-benchwenxin14:29:55————
council · step 3Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:45:01————
council · step 3wenxin14:45:0114:53:11 fc3dda0d281f———
council · step 4Nemotron + Mercury (search)15:06:01————
council · step 5Nemotron + Mercury (search)15:26:24————
council · step 6Nemotron + Mercury (search)15:47:01————

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
001150Z.txt1–6990e5fe7f11a99ddaf…
001233Z.txt1–6990e5fe7f11a99ddaf…
002812Z.txt1–6990e5fe7f11a99ddaf…
002824Z.txt1–70145820f928672cb72…
002825Z.txt1–70145820f928672cb72…
003112Z.txt1–702c6fe205caca95d1d…
011603Z.txt1–702c6fe205caca95d1d…
011704Z.txt1–702c6fe205caca95d1d…
012005Z.txt1–702c6fe205caca95d1d…
012307Z.txt1–702c6fe205caca95d1d…
013004Z.txt1–703d0729ea6a9577f6d…
013304Z.txt1–71279235c55e7f68219…
021129Z.txt1–71279235c55e7f68219…
021323Z.txt1–71279235c55e7f68219…
021624Z.txt1–71279235c55e7f68219…
022611Z.txt1–71279235c55e7f68219…
030004Z.txt1–71457646bd668b4dcb0…
031125Z.txt1–71457646bd668b4dcb0…
031219Z.txt1–71457646bd668b4dcb0…
031520Z.txt1–71457646bd668b4dcb0…
032126Z.txt1–71457646bd668b4dcb0…
032635Z.txt1–71457646bd668b4dcb0…
040005Z.txt1–717d7e86ef2f46fbbe9…
041104Z.txt1–717d7e86ef2f46fbbe9…
041147Z.txt1–717d7e86ef2f46fbbe9…
041447Z.txt1–717d7e86ef2f46fbbe9…
042509Z.txt1–717d7e86ef2f46fbbe9…
042553Z.txt1–717d7e86ef2f46fbbe9…
050002Z.txt1–72015236291f492e300…
051130Z.txt1–72015236291f492e300…
051708Z.txt1–72015236291f492e300…
052613Z.txt1–72015236291f492e300…
060002Z.txt1–721f04c7b7882542582…
061149Z.txt1–721f04c7b7882542582…
062539Z.txt1–721f04c7b7882542582…
062633Z.txt1–721f04c7b7882542582…
070007Z.txt1–7229e3a00d0581b4c56…
071145Z.txt1–7229e3a00d0581b4c56…
081114Z.txt1–7229e3a00d0581b4c56…
081249Z.txt1–7237ace743bce903ce9…
081316Z.txt1–7237ace743bce903ce9…
081550Z.txt1–7237ace743bce903ce9…
083052Z.txt1–7237ace743bce903ce9…
091114Z.txt1–72597e6fb48133cc51d…
091152Z.txt1–72597e6fb48133cc51d…
092514Z.txt1–7266b67a4b75cd5f625…
100050Z.txt1–727f31dc9321929b012…
101204Z.txt1–727f31dc9321929b012…
101721Z.txt1–727f31dc9321929b012…
101757Z.txt1–727f31dc9321929b012…
102620Z.txt1–728ee71720007c3ad3c…
110002Z.txt1–7300d9f369eedb877e8…
111245Z.txt1–7300d9f369eedb877e8…
111357Z.txt1–7300d9f369eedb877e8…
111725Z.txt1–7300d9f369eedb877e8…
112211Z.txt1–732859c51fa49298bd6…
114047Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
114051Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
114337Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
114500Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
114623Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
114801Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
115102Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
115402Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
115703Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
120003Z.txt1–73517c5ac4932ba0a8b…
131512Z.txt1–7368fda33d6590af59e…
140022Z.txt1–737884550e6d783647b…
140037Z.txt1–747dff2986968148632…
140338Z.txt1–747dff2986968148632…
140904Z.txt1–747dff2986968148632…
142313Z.txt1–747dff2986968148632…
142352Z.txt1–75272908008d6c709b2…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Forecast sealed before the 09:30 ET open: service mark digicert 2026-11-02 14:23:53 UTC, covers part of the lines (the file lists which). verdict file

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

31 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-11-02 15:26 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-11-02 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 26,403 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-11-02 15:54:38 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 860 of 860 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=734 · cb_packet · · seal 1086f26927e3fe3742230553f158b1e020964559c7cf1bfa5e997719c799793f · link 3fc2baac4c28380411b3af937d2c620a6f8f886ad1fee58a0d0d39385953922c — a record of the book · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=735 · swap · · seal 89ba14c0922c343c52e46e5b613401f8bcdd178cd5659dff6dad28248daa68e1 · link aab0cebd64c232098bb8b34ae84b9dfbe9fd9fc3f50cd7de3de72b7274bb12e3 — a record of the book · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=738 · run · · seal 185749dd6eb69d970855667a6e75a29a3b54facff5d1fb13ba701344de11bd14 · link cb3f1b5a2965566b3d6fe9e8e5750851578d4e76787abc8649f3ed557a800a68 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=739 · answer · deepseek · seal ef0c42af3208ef36c3f30de9fb18375ab78d89cce7e9d819e37ef66755deec5f · link e5950f3101959458fe48665ef5e5fcb50f7b25070cff8fd9a5b1da35f98c4e9c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=740 · answer · qwen · seal 22d4a63f756a6c1947166d7fb436c7693c5cbcb9d4e0f6125b9961c45e40f343 · link 791d10c06b32821a440db43859fe07f23aa00e1908c681e732b47dd1ba9cedda — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=741 · answer · chatgpt · seal 0ffbc3ebea0b320ad5ab65b58fee23d00e589f10c9364a313aeb6f2ed51c7682 · link 7c3bb62e039f7265b548863b23d1a74797ef1d5d6ef6e9c696212c5b6969dda0 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=742 · answer · gemini · seal 41d080dbb386ed582ea44685db50448a8ec18cef409ef8bae0d91fcee01326da · link 0459101bed3a93ed33e52c2aaa4d122fb553b456c2afd339329ddbc5c2bbc081 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=743 · answer · stepfun · seal 5bbe6241c40aef9cd19cfa3772636f72c0848a8165a5dbd55074ecfc8c347de0 · link 67b0d02f321f7d99c90660f9d5f470a6c49a4a75f42744d2bdb1cfec1407b7bb — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=744 · answer · grok · seal 025c801ba8307e7427b33af55e17c88aea57885571ce220eacee38bb235d67df · link e9466780a93e710b5e578376d83135a5afec8f127d2df9fc94dd8656e78d2886 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=745 · answer · zai · seal 921db30144f5bb9da164a86d94b3f6aa3efc5c9d0407d50c6ac74b4dcd529b6f · link f4928f52646fff6d0cfc67242aab441fa8a07e29b26c94da373e34ed11d47188 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=746 · answer · claude · seal 43c364608880837d003a436e9c6de7b33a17cff5ba780f70c2a0beda04337b09 · link 133577cbdf5c86226aa7aea919280374ab422c7ed330da43c040a00efa8cfcae — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=747 · answer · mimo · seal f5ac1c1a7d14443676963788df39c3efa919582d7b21a69e443d596eeddc5dfd · link 3ce21cc6eeff5045e2eb4e3055c22858396610935ea38535a354399526f90928 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140037Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=748 · answer · meta · seal 099d9103cb5019c222934493e4520102453a58964b041f56830f885ea22d31f5 · link 81d3c5b92e608c1945b1381e269222c08699255e8c8aa74aa43c2d9f73ce3d43 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142352Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=749 · ask_version · · seal 48a8d1c0857c3056a2d7ded0debb2f876d07e48ce9237aa02bb708a2132ab8eb · link 7648fa5c83720bd72371d63eb9a5178569c6743ced740a57bdbf4c45c9351b36 — a record of the book · stamped in 142352Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=750 · answer · nova · seal 3d1f9af392b5ee30a0d6565c697dd3b067e86004edc05613ca4159883ec5c78f · link 3b0416a10333fa6db8a124e0d351a1bc4648dd7e74554d34fe06c8f3fa33a16d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142352Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=751 · answer · kimi · seal 12d68bebc1fedbe304e65e6bc77f753467eba8fec7320cfcc84bef9cb00bec1b · link 8bd79036a7c6b7e51b05ee23d92f5c7badb708ab2da4cf094b5502d9200c4239 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142352Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=752 · answer · meta · seal d9ee3a3624551d721c3662441c7174cd5534c7639fbfd6a6f85bdf6020504d49 · link f9519380b99ef3f6c4c633c64fefe5c536db885428aede2782d17b8376a2307b — forecast · league · Pro league · stamped in 142352Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=753 · bench · stepfun · seal 048b2a7e589f95bdc027c8e9b724bf7cf114fd3fc26b1d63c990f347d4c5f289 · link 21802d7a80f746f92daf094e09119d0d497d05682444344c30d02dc8bff79cdd — league · Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 142954Z.txt (2026-11-02 14:29:54 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=754 · answer · wenxin · seal f96f4bb9de0f23472ce3e90e169cf9364f7a20704d5751ce93ece43e7870d59a · link 9bb1f85802f02f3ba5b288763d9b0aeccd40fea3ecefc5c683e860d216ed4a85 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 145342Z.txt (2026-11-02 14:53:42 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →