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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-11-03-am

Hash of the run: 56e8236cff477ca4ba3ac648f0d9aa827b67b7143eedc13aedbeb2b1ca6f1e38 · sealed 2026-11-03T14:00:16Z

Covers lines 795–815 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-11-03 14:00:16 UTC, seal updated 2026-11-03 14:26:58 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. 8d5d9aafbbbc9b2ba33303342222d44a08c9b19abacee2702047b1368c167495 — as at 2026-11-03 11:40:34 UTC, lines 795–796, list 114034Z.txt
  2. 9409af8a3cd37cbbdc16dc56b113178f0301077b7de1f6a2e2f1d8d51ae3c4e5 — as at 2026-11-03 14:00:20 UTC, lines 795–810, list 140020Z.txt
  3. 56e8236cff477ca4ba3ac648f0d9aa827b67b7143eedc13aedbeb2b1ca6f1e38 — as at 2026-11-03 14:26:58 UTC, lines 795–815 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–810 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 26bac9bd9d82ba357ad69d050e9c0f870d03a56cb793dbb692282534ff2efb0d

The intake for the score closed at Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-03T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 15:14:09 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 14:00:21 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices
  8. Bitcoin block 974402 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=799) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Meta AI11:40:34————
council · step 1Claude11:40:3411:57:26 b3e0e47d2062n=808 · 14:00:18115806Z.txt39 s
council · step 1Gemini11:40:3411:46:20 6d3be0cc4df8n=802 · 14:00:17114631Z.txt10 s
council · step 1Grok11:40:3411:45:58 d855836299fbn=801 · 14:00:17114602Z.txt3 s
council · step 1ChatGPT11:40:3411:52:26 b0bfef7daa16n=806 · 14:00:18115504Z.txt157 s
council · step 1Kimi11:40:34————
council · step 1Qwen11:40:3411:46:45 1c827956df53n=803 · 14:00:17114759Z.txt74 s
council · step 1Z.ai11:40:34————
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)11:40:3411:58:24 8cd60a63329an=809 · 14:00:18120107Z.txt162 s
council · step 1DeepSeek11:40:3411:43:01 2675a1b4d616n=800 · 14:00:17114301Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)11:40:3411:50:08 89dd88cfdf9an=804 · 14:00:17115204Z.txt115 s
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)11:40:3411:50:11 20941fe57eb0n=805 · 14:00:17115204Z.txt113 s
council · step 1Step 5 Preview11:46:3111:53:27 8c46b28a7c37n=807 · 14:00:18115504Z.txt96 s
council · step 2Kimi14:00:2514:05:47 f05841700150n=813 · 14:26:47140559Z.txt12 s
council · step 2Meta AI14:00:2514:23:38 4d89d1bec7cd———
council · step 2Amazon Nova14:00:25————
council · step 2Z.ai14:00:25————
council · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:00:2614:00:26 20941fe57eb0n=805 · 14:00:17115204Z.txt113 s
council · step 3Z.ai14:56:47————
council · step 3Amazon Nova14:56:4715:12:32 e5c6084ac60a———
council-mod2Claude15:16:1315:27:23 288c676af9ec———
council-mod2Grok15:16:1315:18:17 9b7811c90168———
council-mp · step 1Gemini16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1Meta AI16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1ChatGPT16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1Grok16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1Qwen16:12:3616:16:58 3aca54a86db0———
council-mp · step 1Kimi16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1Claude16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1Z.ai16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1DeepSeek16:12:3616:14:44 7748c977ec8e———
council-mp · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1Step 5 Preview16:12:36————
council-mp · step 1Amazon Nova16:20:31————
council-oldverChatGPT17:27:3717:29:15 2222deb52edf———
council-mp · step 2Gemini18:12:5818:18:41 a37661a33a5a———
council-mp · step 2Meta AI18:12:58————
council-mp · step 2Grok18:12:5818:25:22 3897aaaa810b———
council-mp · step 2Claude18:12:5818:24:22 f78e1ed656f1———
council-mp · step 2ChatGPT18:12:58————
council-mp · step 2Kimi18:12:58————
council-mp · step 2MiMo (Xiaomi)18:12:58————
council-mp · step 2Z.ai18:12:58————
council-mp · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)18:12:58————
council-mp · step 2Step 5 Preview18:12:5818:18:36 7ed24abbd2e3———
council-mp · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)18:12:58————
council-mp · step 2Amazon Nova18:21:49————

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
001235Z.txt1–7782b84cd09aa63c88a…
002030Z.txt1–7782b84cd09aa63c88a…
002329Z.txt1–7782b84cd09aa63c88a…
003938Z.txt1–7782b84cd09aa63c88a…
011344Z.txt1–780060471e5bc2fb8ac…
012306Z.txt1–7810335480fc3017d9d…
021257Z.txt1–7810335480fc3017d9d…
021402Z.txt1–7810335480fc3017d9d…
021703Z.txt1–7810335480fc3017d9d…
021907Z.txt1–791c5a56eba57b4475a…
022624Z.txt1–791c5a56eba57b4475a…
030006Z.txt1–792e36a84322e542dc9…
043006Z.txt1–793232ceb7a4fb6214f…
050012Z.txt1–794860e567a372087f6…
114034Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
114036Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
114301Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
114602Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
114631Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
114759Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
115204Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
115504Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
115806Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
120107Z.txt1–796d5ec95670f4ce244…
131501Z.txt1–797980857100d723b03…
134506Z.txt1–798e7d056a0ad15df02…
140020Z.txt1–81026bac9bd9d82ba35…
140559Z.txt1–81026bac9bd9d82ba35…
142601Z.txt1–81026bac9bd9d82ba35…
145646Z.txt1–81524cbbd91b9ff6849…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Forecast sealed before the 09:30 ET open: service mark digicert 2026-11-03 14:00:21 UTC, covers part of the lines (the file lists which). verdict file

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

25 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-11-03 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 28,318 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-11-03 15:45:35 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 939 of 940 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=795 · cb_packet · · seal 92cc3f9fdd18053b6a9e87994b3b0435ab02f1261f8564c845ecf26d496b51b1 · link daa864bf3abcb528e2536fb2f8beb1a3587b759caebe6e680ddba3eefdab8108 — a record of the book · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=796 · swap · · seal badccc8d9fa6c112adb3b6ac21a6ca90b3c9f28d818f3355b34c78751af4f768 · link 150ca67e650cd5c839b9771847a3c78c9610a9b571665679dde8007884ff16e4 — a record of the book · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=799 · run · · seal bc3713b8de0befdab3a0c46fe9d0ab05f9b483634718dec8efc3ead12c2e7e29 · link af7c1932d4c56317a7cb2bba0a5655d7127d349bc69f700e9345ef646c5fe850 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=800 · answer · deepseek · seal dcafcc286625898bccf67ca32d04200dfd4a4d7e733b026221271f9adbf1a70e · link 556ca7161ea19cd290c52f8b350f390304694081da71668c9825165cc3444514 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=801 · answer · grok · seal 7bc78de0a73f87b29fca49c50463fbd09ddfa6c91eade0bf234da39ec49fbeeb · link ae4715a20ce8d86cbb0c8d4312bc050a7400bb5d11b286a63702d60aead42a15 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=802 · answer · gemini · seal 6d5fa39959954bc296e074e428de949d4c7a8c1f12325b532402799c4866924f · link 9f300538b02e81e60bf8bc39aa9f7f3d787cbfcb79c75f0270c4c87b85f36180 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=803 · answer · qwen · seal 6384c40711564c16e217451ee57f23479971b8bf9b6b196d2f68270e165e4f80 · link 429d0b78b81c8799df2abd4982afa1327f3d968d5a1fa609d161b278d6eb72db — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=804 · answer · nemotron · seal ac42799137022aaee27f9c4395a56b983ff5293ef6793c448e46afe1a8a5a0c4 · link eb643572f7f2cb50b0b000aea22393b7c27511d14d9b69bad49eeeb9cfb528ed — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=805 · answer · wenxin · seal 3e1d575adb123a3c793f795ae8649de17cc69bfa4642e7aaac9511c2618a6874 · link 83a1289717736f1bf6d47cdc0a3e17cbdbda11b3630b5d1e0775c5c1566365b9 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=810 · addition · wenxin · seal dc0ca91b5dc186c57c4a992f9a0755ee9a33b663ace149134dcb64759a75f59d · link b45df7e19bfea5cbf5586a5e4b1f5ddb179a3c71fed361e857814fa5b6049d17 — an addition to line n=805 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=806 · answer · chatgpt · seal 82970cfa5ed81802e0659632b386e4ea41af5bc076b4806960da2a3272ad5f91 · link 9c7a642ae1243f6f97698bf001a3b6d7d5458f1e57641eae8193aa8bba1e7dc1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=807 · answer · stepfun · seal 5ba3e9ffc5522b56897e35d5228b3e8bd9f08288d28b34a210fcfbf451e8ed6f · link 975eb543ab688d555f0e182f318250d32f69ab723537729d9f6a7632aabb594e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=808 · answer · claude · seal 9c50f1aef61a2db0e70303b99863c9dad34ada8dd2e486fd9aec30e4da33687b · link 412679a8c2be1d6c14842d3268d2df33e6182c9054688df68d12bed7e568a5c6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=809 · answer · mimo · seal 9b9e25bb9f8d815a9e7c376ec2cceb03f3820de800ab423ce0de3f714e0fe915 · link 259735ddab6b5c825d2c894ff6714ef938c4345c6285e86d8a9dd5ad4629e56f — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=811 · answer · meta · seal f63a17382a46f4401258dfb0affbfeaf138f5d1274b3ae91c685f89542fec561 · link 61120e96be91c856d534a200bac4882b8bead1c38d234c4baa4889d147340ae6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 145646Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=812 · ask_version · · seal 5274f4109d8b84ce4c6dd038d606c848c997a0bb5803401122f2437ddbf943a5 · link b2f70120403df47d222f77db8f3e610bbd4a0f7348111415ed29237bfca93622 — a record of the book · stamped in 145646Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=813 · answer · kimi · seal d5a2f9df5b7bef9de9095a97ab4a4a91c94ac33d6cc3baf7367f62d67afc2711 · link bf5bab5517d519598862b0d556c5f2b4a43546e61d9dbcf5d6d08ed3d417b618 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 145646Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=814 · raw_page · zai · seal 41a96f2140fd6ad1e65b1135ef75ab7ad8fdae6a016d7108f37790693bffcbe0 · link ddc43f44592e7769cde35f3bcd63533a969ec89a7f804ecddcaf2328d24cb4de — a record of the book · stamped in 145646Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=815 · raw_page · nova · seal c423f8fd9b604ce90d504ba2ce735c47f2ea67c8048e29faf3b46405d8365efd · link 3789e12dd503dca569d4cbe57882020a78e4cbbfcc42bd206bc053696e07cdd1 — a record of the book · stamped in 145646Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  20. n=816 · answer · nova · seal dd8df8f75d3a73a6b03ec4354d190c93626185c44315bfb7e1c11dae41b37477 · link 097dd76a3ceec61320b885f3ecd139fdd4ad958b5e7828da01bdcdb2ab3e6512 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 151411Z.txt (2026-11-03 15:14:11 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  21. n=817 · answer · zai · seal 6c2ba88b39092afd195b9c59b7764cd095db96e7616e03070b688878a6989c46 · link 6ffdddd02cd66e7d6ff0965e49ddc2c427affee98f3e36ce6fe7d1c3b8b4a6c6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 151613Z.txt (2026-11-03 15:16:13 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →