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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-11-04-am

All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 11:42:58–14:23:02 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo at 14:00:34 and 14:23:18 UTC (the latest — Amazon Nova, ChatGPT, Claude, Meta AI, Nemotron + Mercury (search), 6 min 42 s before the open).

Hash of the run: 32fdd9e7a004fb4c120286d968da0bc763044f227948e90185e2b3162450b476 · sealed 2026-11-04T14:00:31Z

Covers lines 851–872 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-11-04 14:00:31 UTC, seal updated 2026-11-04 14:23:18 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. 79bf664f0e730f9c40269dc11759bffc21935c069efc6e78dd3f0050e0fa3866 — as at 2026-11-04 11:40:44 UTC, lines 851–852, list 114044Z.txt
  2. 8d66015bada4dd65a5b65dd0e9f227eb802ad471a759bc50f18b701b5db70e38 — as at 2026-11-04 14:00:34 UTC, lines 851–865, list 140034Z.txt
  3. 32fdd9e7a004fb4c120286d968da0bc763044f227948e90185e2b3162450b476 — as at 2026-11-04 14:23:18 UTC, lines 851–872 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–865 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 82a6832017ebeea22c61e2b1c388d41b5601b352ed440bf71e154a9f24b59f4b

The intake for the score closed at Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-04T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 14:23:02 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 14:23:18 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices
  8. Bitcoin block 974540 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=854) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Gemini11:40:4411:44:49 080089fc6293n=856 · 14:00:32114558Z.txt69 s
council · step 1Meta AI11:40:44————
council · step 1Claude11:40:4411:56:23 b91c59670ce6n=862 · 14:00:32115624Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Grok11:40:4411:46:49 d70ee69cb032n=859 · 14:00:32114859Z.txt129 s
council · step 1Kimi11:40:4411:47:59 ef4a85d6ce59n=860 · 14:00:32114859Z.txt59 s
council · step 1ChatGPT11:40:44————
council · step 1Qwen11:40:4411:46:36 1ae1e1c80907n=858 · 14:00:32114859Z.txt143 s
council · step 1Z.ai11:40:4411:52:26 e316ef2054dbn=861 · 14:00:32115227Z.txt0 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)11:40:4412:15:08 313aed36bd00n=864 · 14:00:32121508Z.txt0 s
council · step 1DeepSeek11:40:4411:42:57 41cab99e9505n=855 · 14:00:32114301Z.txt3 s
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)11:40:4411:45:08 b9f0b001ebbbn=857 · 14:00:32114558Z.txt49 s
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)11:40:44————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview11:49:0311:57:03 f71d80284d8dn=863 · 14:00:32115924Z.txt140 s
council · step 2ChatGPT14:00:5414:13:10 c8ac7d99dd33n=870 · 14:23:17141312Z.txt1 s
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:00:5414:23:01 839a33c075de———
council · step 2Amazon Nova14:00:5414:01:47 943452ab3fc7n=869 · 14:23:17140148Z.txt0 s
council · step 2Meta AI14:00:5514:22:55 4ca71a431bban=871 · 14:23:17142257Z.txt1 s
council · step 2Claude14:00:5514:15:40 b7069f9a48fbn=868 · 14:23:17141612Z.txt31 s
council-bench-retry-portfolioNemotron + Mercury (search)14:28:3414:29:59 f6c3b2d64e92———
council-bench-retry-portfolioAmazon Nova14:28:3414:29:12 493c157922d1———
council-bench-retry-pro_portfolioKimi14:30:0014:30:30 1c24a52d598b———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
021246Z.txt1–83918764c25a6f43f5d…
024503Z.txt1–83918764c25a6f43f5d…
031210Z.txt1–83918764c25a6f43f5d…
031212Z.txt1–83918764c25a6f43f5d…
031306Z.txt1–83918764c25a6f43f5d…
031607Z.txt1–83918764c25a6f43f5d…
031908Z.txt1–83918764c25a6f43f5d…
033100Z.txt1–840200adfb5f70cddde…
041217Z.txt1–8494e1781b884687b81…
041239Z.txt1–850203733ff815cf372…
114044Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
114046Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
114301Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
114558Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
114859Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
114904Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
115227Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
115624Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
115924Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
121508Z.txt1–8526ecdb08450d1a2ae…
140004Z.txt1–853a2580483c810dc5f…
140034Z.txt1–86582a6832017ebeea2…
140148Z.txt1–86582a6832017ebeea2…
141312Z.txt1–86582a6832017ebeea2…
141612Z.txt1–86582a6832017ebeea2…
142257Z.txt1–86582a6832017ebeea2…
142318Z.txt1–87273ae4ee7974166b4…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when its list was signed
verdict file

Lists signed: 14:00:34, 14:23:18 · answers sealed in the book 11:42:58–14:23:02 · public: 14:14, 14:24 (UTC)

Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

22 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-11-04 14:00 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-11-04 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 30,251 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-11-04 14:25:05 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 980 of 980 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=851 · cb_packet · · seal 481d2bfbee54ff2d3bd29f7795c61a45f7118ff19f46d6d1baa0d36263ac02b8 · link 9ddf735f781ffc22478ee098e451f58a95d9ae0325c4edb253738f76414cdb1b — a record of the book · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=852 · swap · · seal d7b3c097807105dc1a3254c1decdb5a63e1be95409bc4877b9ebcc4683ad12c9 · link d9ab245aa5db622663efbc5d416d7b3af425661feda371e80c43a94593d2fbbf — a record of the book · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=854 · run · · seal 61af2e7c6b10215beab66ad1cadae89ab5b20519abbd0dbb420fbdb9ed6f4766 · link ad38be0ef2d4d1b90ae5ec7d66741d63fbf7188e88b7b72825b899954040b722 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=855 · answer · deepseek · seal a637016d4db52c966ab0b8225b52c129c67d173d53808737e2820377c29def17 · link 510ddf19a0645c53e47f5fb016fdda9d2c25f62b026c49216d432de242cf4863 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=856 · answer · gemini · seal a6558a56aa4dd95d0680cae2867af88a0962b49f340324899d110c9e62d52e92 · link dde1930bca9311efec1ff4257630b2872b12e7c6c1f38d01f06dd48ad213f3f5 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=857 · answer · wenxin · seal 209a75841821396378f205fccce50876618e654404f2e10a2ac85b787a6d5e6c · link a9ff1a7fdb62f8a6ca0276fd3302702f9fdb42c87a0f75e5f35bd5b68b15e8d8 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=865 · addition · wenxin · seal a68ed3a3427bc57c605646b6f876025a1b3721167c39952d64dee35837ce9b97 · link b2139fbf4a6e0d2358e849132afdba2c4ee27708394fe8acb7fefefecc901576 — an addition to line n=857 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=858 · answer · qwen · seal 9d40d7b58183d3c6755c53aaf0ab8506e22048f760e6c5d14915788396e8e311 · link 18fa51020ec9b042d96bd7c78eda9454a1e3c5bd01ed1e884f2a9c7549d3dd71 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=859 · answer · grok · seal 0dc345e403943ce2f0cf944df3a2786fbe09b7c0b068fa1de7c8edbcd6e887af · link 8838b2205f227a279c6f645c2ed09801a66905ffd06f0c5ef62cfaf5ca215263 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=860 · answer · kimi · seal 8d3ddd880bb42d753da0ebec16420f356a7e55891beac06c0d63b6de1c5aa3ba · link 06558005fe8b2631b1466df9246399a6c3b05945082f7a7762e0dfede917af61 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=861 · answer · zai · seal 7bc12e7a75078bea155b82d2db09563705e23d27caa8187b6e5e65f29c74d14e · link 31cf2dece54dd2e1aaeed5263402c3cf37f434bdeda0ca1281ff37f3ff4f4658 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=862 · answer · claude · seal f5c04db3ea544cbb9f5b65371e99d140c7deb71990c5feb0e4070c68982e1b35 · link 8a305ca232723c49dcf7b6fee8dd2dae7237b95f398adf32300c789c0b73f34a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=863 · answer · stepfun · seal 9584ddce4ff283b2bf750471d2290b5625cd18ab3660dc6d381c65599d05eb14 · link 1a933c2c3f69c72928349ea2921f8f197d53ed3db784a1995b8276b09d088187 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=864 · answer · mimo · seal 9c935fdfb4d16225627d2698035a96951fa9371731f123d0ef8bd99413ecd06b · link e84e60439d55cae0f5f21f8beb02b46b483c6f321788dc7cf79e81a4fb863280 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140034Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=866 · answer · nemotron · seal cb2c1f5a28cbdf6da272db446b8ebc5248c68f324b4efce54c11371063fc3b32 · link 4ee04468168494894ef5233aa04923d20fb8f55859bd1e9e0adb04420928ec89 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142318Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=872 · addition · nemotron · seal c5ea2b7cfbf50d34048ba331f81a66eaa567b8de7a485b47dff449faca370c17 · link 3792fadfb1ccd0cee894b7e66d9c020a370d4c43de781bdf63818bffe431e8d4 — an addition to line n=866 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 142318Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=867 · ask_version · · seal bc64e5b4982fb55b1735285f205d6a6f96d07669ce2af13c97b58c4367e84400 · link 67af62e626e9277f090453d06f837116b11d290b517f24b04b44ef8516cb2a49 — a record of the book · stamped in 142318Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=868 · answer · claude · seal 83b7b9ded04b6377c0bfa45846b021d78ea6ee3a31a78fc424beb0363207eb2d · link 39e8a10f58754f51421a5d16c026912b43189b3a96545e3a56ff5281e1d5d7a6 — forecast · league · Pro league · stamped in 142318Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=869 · answer · nova · seal 8a07b0995e9aa937432a4c1ed240dd75c08554a8fb58ffc44b19ce89716820da · link 88860327233f462ebd76e4b27a0bce05876ef6f53c1fb32b96fa6d6e80cde152 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142318Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  20. n=870 · answer · chatgpt · seal 08374550ed344f4693242e005ed75b7c22815b0df85c4e7f22a5774a4de0b785 · link 07c82ba2edeadc5be9a1e335f49886907e21449efe05bcee802f0b09bfaaddc3 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142318Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  21. n=871 · answer · meta · seal 4d123f788455caabf31e2ca4cdf5a057eea402f9e5721b8748bf06c4bc655dfa · link 7f24bc3cde9503d3c01ef8161a0d623bfc393b4da7afad2184fdeb0a89cf6238 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142318Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  22. n=873 · bench · nova · seal 1896bd7cfef50ec53bfd4978fa20c5a63f2bfe83b5a8f00569fe526365fe7af4 · link 26caced5ffd3319a830f7755e9079f425e78d5d3a7da651217fdbf5d542fef44 — league · asked again · stamped later in 143000Z.txt (2026-11-04 14:30:00 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  23. n=874 · bench · nemotron · seal 703c9e5edc12c883c465484e3d7b8c8ce8f119a3d1eead777cb16266cec4f36a · link 074916181818d9a86820bd7b4602cb71570cffe4d653fb221dc024727e26a417 — league · Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 143000Z.txt (2026-11-04 14:30:00 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  24. n=875 · bench · kimi · seal 07aa3e77fae75d135da18ad98b9b9f03cc33606f77e2e1e08aa69618b7bdf4fa · link 4ef02883f63151140ecab98293dee336f659716662cfdfc4de8501b4562a099b — Pro league · asked again · stamped later in 143213Z.txt (2026-11-04 14:32:13 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →