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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-11-05-am

Hash of the run: 9a843ac65d93b4cfa427ace4cd0fd2ed3a85d58419d43e29da429b99c6bec3c5 · sealed 2026-11-05T14:00:15Z

Covers lines 910–924 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-11-05 14:00:15 UTC, seal updated 2026-11-05 14:00:16 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. d176862f10aa8e12bd9d5f96a85f7fb1013664e3d1d60c6c4edd4743dc5d28d7 — as at 2026-11-05 11:40:36 UTC, lines 910–911, list 114036Z.txt
  2. 9a843ac65d93b4cfa427ace4cd0fd2ed3a85d58419d43e29da429b99c6bec3c5 — as at 2026-11-05 14:00:16 UTC, lines 910–924 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–911 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 0519ca5efa5a87a82929a7fa9514cfdfe9ebd656e365fc7d7e3d58acfea60312

The intake for the score closed at Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-05T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 14:36:52 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. seal updated with the run’s next line
  6. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 14:00:20 UTC
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices
  8. Bitcoin block 974697 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)
  9. the day scored

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=913) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1meta11:40:36————
council · step 1Gemini11:40:3611:45:24 ba57f5d46eddn=916 · 14:00:16114600Z.txt36 s
council · step 1Claude11:40:3611:57:42 c2c28f937654n=923 · 14:00:16115840Z.txt58 s
council · step 1ChatGPT11:40:3611:55:24 949dd598c51fn=921 · 14:00:16115540Z.txt15 s
council · step 1Kimi11:40:3611:55:36 1c229aa329c1n=922 · 14:00:16115540Z.txt3 s
council · step 1Grok11:40:3611:52:38 e0c0e79258efn=917 · 14:00:16115238Z.txt0 s
council · step 1mimo11:40:36————
council · step 1Z.ai11:40:3611:54:10 84242ac61059n=919 · 14:00:16115540Z.txt90 s
council · step 1Qwen11:40:3611:45:11 bb0ed5944a3fn=915 · 14:00:16114600Z.txt48 s
council · step 1DeepSeek11:40:3711:42:58 8e0646db1c04n=914 · 14:00:16114259Z.txt0 s
council · step 1nemotron11:40:37————
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)11:40:4611:54:30 e9ccaa370840n=920 · 14:00:16115540Z.txt70 s
council · step 1Step 5 Preview11:46:2211:53:52 d4229916fbb3n=918 · 14:00:16115540Z.txt108 s
council · step 2nova14:00:20————
council · step 2nemotron14:00:20————
council · step 2mimo14:00:20————
council · step 2meta14:00:20————
council · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:05:4114:05:41 e9ccaa370840n=920 · 14:00:16115540Z.txt70 s
council · step 3nova14:15:04————
council · step 3meta14:15:0414:32:16 a28050d94016———
council · step 3nemotron14:15:0414:19:23 fe5c74408605———
council · step 3mimo14:15:0414:15:57 01005477cf20———
council · step 3Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:15:04————
council · step 3Grok14:32:34————
council · step 3Step 5 Preview14:32:43————
council · step 4nova14:35:3514:36:52 386364847e10———
council-mod2Claude15:11:3115:22:10 fab41df6e8cc———
council-mod2Grok15:11:3115:13:00 5a7c5a78bec6———
council-mp · step 1Gemini15:22:5815:26:36 dabcb420c42e———
council-mp · step 1meta15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1Grok15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1ChatGPT15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1Claude15:22:5815:33:25 b3ec808f272b———
council-mp · step 1Kimi15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1Qwen15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1mimo15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1Z.ai15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1DeepSeek15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1nemotron15:22:58————
council-mp · step 1Step 5 Preview15:27:55————
council-mp · step 1nova15:28:53————
council-mp · step 2meta16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2Grok16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2ChatGPT16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2nemotron16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2nova16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2Kimi16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2Qwen16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2mimo16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2Z.ai16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2DeepSeek16:11:5716:14:21 d074b6178318———
council-mp · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)16:11:57————
council-mp · step 2Step 5 Preview16:12:04————
council-oldverChatGPT17:24:0017:38:04 971807529218———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
021239Z.txt1–8973064509530ba5a23…
021242Z.txt1–8973064509530ba5a23…
021351Z.txt1–8973064509530ba5a23…
021651Z.txt1–8973064509530ba5a23…
021952Z.txt1–8973064509530ba5a23…
023210Z.txt1–8988cfe37d11f7fcdef…
031241Z.txt1–907b9f57c24c4eadd7d…
031308Z.txt1–908d68247edde337796…
080307Z.txt1–909ab3eef32c5e215d2…
114036Z.txt1–9110519ca5efa5a87a8…
114039Z.txt1–9110519ca5efa5a87a8…
114259Z.txt1–9110519ca5efa5a87a8…
114600Z.txt1–9110519ca5efa5a87a8…
114622Z.txt1–9110519ca5efa5a87a8…
115238Z.txt1–9110519ca5efa5a87a8…
115540Z.txt1–9110519ca5efa5a87a8…
115840Z.txt1–9110519ca5efa5a87a8…
140005Z.txt1–912934d395211edfd9a…
140020Z.txt1–924e04a9f6495c4f680…
140542Z.txt1–924e04a9f6495c4f680…
141558Z.txt1–924e04a9f6495c4f680…
141923Z.txt1–924e04a9f6495c4f680…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Forecast sealed before the 09:30 ET open: service mark digicert 2026-11-05 14:00:20 UTC, covers part of the lines (the file lists which). verdict file

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

29 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-11-05 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 1059 of 1059 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lists signed: 14:00:20 · answers sealed in the book 11:42:58–14:36:52 · public: 14:04, 16:44 (UTC)

Own event. An answer sealed after the shared reference counts from its own Bitcoin reference and stays out of the shared statistics: ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, Qwen, Step 5 Preview, Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE), Z.ai — own reference 14:00:16Z → bar 14:01Z, 79,580.92; Meta AI, MiMo (Xiaomi), Nemotron — own reference 14:33:09Z → bar 14:34Z, 79,354.08; Amazon Nova — own reference 14:36:52Z → bar 14:37Z, 79,024.51. Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

Lines of the book

  1. n=910 · cb_packet · · seal 5854757a78007ca6bccc0931068c5e8b58c37e7c45f099451d0f83672fcdf513 · link f94d110c9f81c206678682cfc03f9204391794a1c28ad4a0b0fd1a93850ba76d — a record of the book · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=911 · swap · · seal e3bc376f0363c7ce16e43793f650fb84a8e6dccad25903cafd9ae3c389848b43 · link 2917973665c245951214764356128fda26a71326e50905dbbe5e63973b5130c6 — a record of the book · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=913 · run · · seal 60394ae9c3b2ad59b7150a9e07bed13e646790350ef00d2c8bc581ec723d62b9 · link 5c716ed779915748f7f24d17e777481dbe4b3185629031022efb9d1b68486886 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=914 · answer · deepseek · seal 6323bc4248a7898231c65ea1ff1bf92cc48393877d78cf1e04011b473cd76780 · link 20c2e55517f5f4478785e36430916ba402f3fec389cf8b2e6285da054de58e4d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=915 · answer · qwen · seal b61f0b571ba4fb696952c8531b916397cf6c76e45301824bf06e51d676eaa557 · link 9896a1f114335df8bf4421e62c680217051c1487a7de4ec4c049e319eb7baf64 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=916 · answer · gemini · seal 9215bbfb96ffb5f956650f68e04316fc65ac06d0667f5b7ed9d736ebb4b898c0 · link f78077da788fd6c29678e43e1d1cbea49b3368cd5573c77212f74f24a10e98f1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=917 · answer · grok · seal 60b6d1b5a4ec54fca70b0a0418cbd889f79ca949283109d18714ca21a6c527f9 · link b213b62384e054b13ea8cbdcc40d8133a44e9bfdea47f952e1cf1f7331920cc1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=918 · answer · stepfun · seal 02305709aee7611b84aca6ab6d227e3f01018e0745d3b5d946a2527840e59ded · link eb7843c4e074368f07b03d4f51b0fbbbeb8b4e5073364510a510f309365b6cb2 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=919 · answer · zai · seal 3512d236e5565a75aad50d5c06fa2bafcfb8265ce39b743b64b33c77713db183 · link c1708dad4d5a8ba950ab9f885e446c438e05594d96ccffcce5898511e4d2d0f5 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=920 · answer · wenxin · seal 1fa26e0b358ecd01ac7797901731656db2ebeebb67ac5dfdd09a4c5a78b66998 · link 643f5aead3a3fcb9dfcbff103cb73b1a706a46c75cae62b0663efda650c55d79 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=924 · addition · wenxin · seal 83a1d6e9f385b6d6bc45b9385d7b0852ec83a9e21d2548b177c5eed9f5103f5f · link 0f0a9fa5d92dd98a52733e6e1c6dcbe53d22fb78d24d6fb9ff207e24ca4184bb — an addition to line n=920 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=921 · answer · chatgpt · seal 32f649f7e7d017b51abe334dd5760bf162e2e3f83f82d560abc6ee830bc7f1b4 · link 104385b5e11d2216a37bd1abe35c53d7cc19107962fa627bec9991774caebb19 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=922 · answer · kimi · seal dc317c99d7235e25bc21ba98322cbce42ba23292aac9f2a223e1c5ce65949b34 · link e08227a7644d6df3a83a0cc802b6a1313cb258ae093f8a5f4677baeabe081f4e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=923 · answer · claude · seal 0f244a43c020a1f62bf20cc4171f14a73d1d1c48998be04f004047f84196b868 · link e04b2cba8d7a81b1ac79daba7319c09d109a4822378ea59f53316c760e10da70 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140020Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=925 · answer · mimo · seal 7f1c6b7acfd3f90c8cddd706ff5a2a60737ec024406dc3615fc995cd5d2c369d · link 4d628ec487f23831580148631abc448356c940f316d3f4ec324f7c528aa3cff1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 143309Z.txt (2026-11-05 14:33:09 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=926 · answer · nemotron · seal dd5fd3aeca2bbb931df45920ec4a0fc1814927e9e9d2dc9f98df89cc1e58762c · link d55068bda2c76d9d2918066735d5403e3eb5dd3cfa0c2f6db7873464cbdd4034 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 143309Z.txt (2026-11-05 14:33:09 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=927 · answer · meta · seal e8f17825a69d5e035242cb66ab642f9a3875d6c8c9d45b60d729c79d973c7f38 · link a18ea47dd3da41af510515743182e6c7ddce04787ef9d4d9d2d4a6a492a4cbc9 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 143309Z.txt (2026-11-05 14:33:09 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=928 · answer · nova · seal 05e59d0dff62a4b43c4eecdd1dd4863d9fbc17c15954a22a162a3ed394345c01 · link cdc64b38326e03e64de2d8160b8ed160fb82732b37f5586929f43b0dfc3d5db4 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 143654Z.txt (2026-11-05 14:36:54 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=933 · portfolio · · seal 53aeb228102af68e3715989ef732ba78ad3d8221d16d16349ba4270cc1bff69d · link 3dbe953844d130cf70bd93b5638bab4b7010449eaf4cd5908be7e2ffde97e03e — the books of the forecasts, valued at the close · stamped later in 213516Z.txt (2026-11-05 21:35:16 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  20. n=934 · score · · seal 76867662af33e8ec95e0abc46493d579cc554a1b60da4b0d70bfeba4f7bc7356 · link d33e8a1ace8814e46b5baa7bf9bd45559eb66aa352bcd3b2e7ca4b944c99fd43 — the forecast score of the day · stamped later in 213516Z.txt (2026-11-05 21:35:16 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  21. n=935 · experiment · · seal ed270391ba65bf3289074a36d47bb6f61ca913d62517532712701e9a496e3147 · link 4e5049d28dc2f856786b899cdb4f9dfb6120b6bc6306907e2936fa6dc6293ca3 — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 224510Z.txt (2026-11-05 22:45:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  22. n=936 · score_h · · seal 0ac7041997489e2174c305841170fde39e4e999ee5e20d7102f60ac6de5a489d · link 9016aca9d640f36c1cd5177c0bd8622aafe95edfb9fb17818617a57bf3b2d7e0 — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 224510Z.txt (2026-11-05 22:45:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  23. n=937 · arena · · seal 68f02748e901272bb5af141a046cf9fbaed53267101d0880fcf25b668799c81a · link 19ba3edb45e4765d62975e0753b33a37c44056926f9f3fa9d6c5da643c11bf97 — the league's session: trades and values · stamped later in 224510Z.txt (2026-11-05 22:45:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →