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Verify a forecast: how anyone can check it

Every forecast is written down before the market opens, and here is how anyone can check that it was not changed.

  1. Download the file with the list 021154Z.txt
  2. Recompute its hash (a fingerprint of the file) on your computer: shasum -a 256 021154Z.txt
  3. Compare that hash with the outside time stamps below: they were made by others, not by us.

Hash of the latest list:

4102ae1d2c7fbb29e6022b3996174ce757c317ae5c773411ac275651a50b2f8c

First seal 2026-11-06 14:00:18 and re-seal 2026-11-06 14:24:14 (UTC), both with outside time stamps.

AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-11-06-am

Hash of the run: db6802b339e661ccd3a40cec94c8fc913d7bd6c4afe638169611d99479fbfc03 · sealed 2026-11-06T14:00:18Z

Covers lines 954–971 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-11-06 14:00:18 UTC, seal updated 2026-11-06 14:24:14 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. 84ebf89659d675706f5de8d87713dae2835143652f26ec65c4e03d974437cc98 — as at 2026-11-06 11:40:39 UTC, lines 954–955, list 114039Z.txt
  2. b94bf45ef1d070945138a384e7a494517f0558cdb0f9947648ff3f61219164f4 — as at 2026-11-06 14:00:42 UTC, lines 954–966, list 140042Z.txt
  3. db6802b339e661ccd3a40cec94c8fc913d7bd6c4afe638169611d99479fbfc03 — as at 2026-11-06 14:24:14 UTC, lines 954–971 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–966 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 2cee0a8daf423bc5615355477b6147a70396910573bb6de0905889f847355c2e

The intake for the score closed at Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-06T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 15:35:26 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 14:24:14 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices
  8. Bitcoin block 974817 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)
  9. the day scored

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=957) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Gemini11:40:3911:52:28 69f526573c3cn=962 · 14:00:21115350Z.txt82 s
council · step 1Meta AI11:40:39————
council · step 1Claude11:40:3912:17:27 8bae01d96578n=966 · 14:00:21121727Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Grok11:40:3911:47:45 63c6255c2dacn=959 · 14:00:21114745Z.txt0 s
council · step 1ChatGPT11:40:3911:42:47 c1927c134e99n=958 · 14:00:21114247Z.txt0 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)11:40:3912:00:16 a9fb5b3bc7b6n=965 · 14:00:21120248Z.txt152 s
council · step 1Kimi11:40:39————
council · step 1Qwen11:40:39————
council · step 1Z.ai11:40:3911:56:51 03e0bbea5aa5n=964 · 14:00:21115948Z.txt177 s
council · step 1DeepSeek11:40:3911:48:28 ac9208a66b42n=960 · 14:00:21114859Z.txt30 s
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)11:40:5411:51:40 81d397797f2bn=961 · 14:00:21115350Z.txt129 s
council · step 1Step 5 Preview11:46:2411:53:58 cf1f7a22acb8n=963 · 14:00:21115647Z.txt168 s
council · step 2Meta AI14:00:2814:22:51 f75efa9bea10n=969 · 14:24:14142251Z.txt0 s
council · step 2Kimi14:00:2814:14:01 6bfc163d6e4cn=968 · 14:24:14141401Z.txt0 s
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:00:28————
council · step 2Qwen14:00:28————
council · step 2Amazon Nova14:00:28————
council · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:00:4114:00:41 81d397797f2bn=961 · 14:00:21115350Z.txt129 s
council · step 2Grok14:23:31————
council-bench-retry-portfolioWenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:31:26————
council · step 3Qwen14:47:19————
council · step 3Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:47:19————
council · step 3Amazon Nova14:47:1914:48:38 d360fe8f1b50———
council · step 4Qwen15:08:0015:16:15 cce485fcad9d———
council · step 4Nemotron + Mercury (search)15:08:00————
council · step 5Nemotron + Mercury (search)15:28:3615:35:26 0623c5f24842———
council-mod2Claude16:11:0616:26:48 7808687ec31d———
council-mod2Grok16:11:0616:14:18 8eb47ef8ae44———
council-mod2ChatGPT16:11:0616:23:02 9fed4e6e5699———
council-mp · step 1Gemini17:11:4917:16:33 9447361032fc———
council-mp · step 1Claude17:11:4917:16:35 5f73bdaf82bd———
council-mp · step 1Meta AI17:11:49————
council-mp · step 1Grok17:11:49————
council-mp · step 1ChatGPT17:11:4917:13:37 59f188a5f56f———
council-mp · step 1Qwen17:11:49————
council-mp · step 1Kimi17:11:49————
council-mp · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)17:11:49————
council-mp · step 1Z.ai17:11:49————
council-mp · step 1DeepSeek17:11:4917:13:43 277a17b88a28———
council-mp · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)17:12:15————
council-mp · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)17:17:28————
council-mp · step 1Amazon Nova17:18:34————
council-mp · step 1Step 5 Preview17:20:20————
council-mp · step 2Meta AI18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2Grok18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2Amazon Nova18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2Kimi18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2Qwen18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2MiMo (Xiaomi)18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2Z.ai18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)18:11:28————
council-mp · step 2Step 5 Preview18:11:28————
council-oldver · step 1ChatGPT19:11:40————
council-oldver · step 2ChatGPT20:11:46————

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
021154Z.txt1–942e9c72314ad91d87e…
021415Z.txt1–942e9c72314ad91d87e…
021718Z.txt1–942e9c72314ad91d87e…
022017Z.txt1–942e9c72314ad91d87e…
030006Z.txt1–999f115628e1d569281…
031144Z.txt1–9500a0da651bd47b366…
031221Z.txt1–9500a0da651bd47b366…
031536Z.txt1–9500a0da651bd47b366…
033045Z.txt1–95169c0e8a73ad375c5…
041501Z.txt1–95327bbbaaa2ee23236…
114039Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
114042Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
114247Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
114624Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
114745Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
114859Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
115350Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
115647Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
115948Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
120248Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
121727Z.txt1–955d53da8b83a28a130…
140005Z.txt1–95668bb6fb1134f58ce…
140042Z.txt1–9662cee0a8daf423bc5…
141401Z.txt1–9662cee0a8daf423bc5…
142251Z.txt1–9662cee0a8daf423bc5…
142331Z.txt1–9662cee0a8daf423bc5…
142414Z.txt1–971070e86e761b04004…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Forecast sealed before the 09:30 ET open: service mark digicert 2026-11-06 14:24:14 UTC, covers part of the lines (the file lists which). verdict file

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

30 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 1401 of 1401 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lists signed: 14:00:42, 14:24:14 · answers sealed in the book 11:42:47–15:35:26 · public: 14:10, 14:25, 16:28 (UTC)

Own event. An answer sealed after the shared reference counts from its own Bitcoin reference and stays out of the shared statistics: ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, MiMo (Xiaomi), Step 5 Preview, Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE), Z.ai — own reference 14:00:21Z → bar 14:01Z, 75,633.94; Kimi, Meta AI — own reference 14:24:14Z → bar 14:25Z, 75,563.61; Amazon Nova — own reference 14:53:42Z → bar 14:54Z, 75,625.37; Qwen — own reference 15:26:10Z → bar 15:27Z, 75,495.44; Nemotron — own reference 15:35:26Z → bar 15:36Z, 75,169.32. Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

Lines of the book

  1. n=954 · cb_packet · · seal 4e9d735f75198baf7a27d1ccaec5b995a2bdf4696ffc9e0ee92019fc6d43f11b · link 1adfc5acc47586f52f16a6bf1081914c8cb468ce854176cc7b309ba4c35dc9f3 — a record of the book · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=955 · swap · · seal 3965f7a7053e7378e5cc538d020ea3e4448e12f5641183a3fd10e5829c3630d8 · link e3796c27481262e7e9b0c884583a1cc433d38f5c92823a948e789a857a71cd7f — a record of the book · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=957 · run · · seal e44512205c14c6e1a19b270a2274ebf53950b8315210988c15150664d1a3c13d · link 4ef1403121d0228898d1d1effcfd300421277de876132d121dd63dc015d3b7a9 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=958 · answer · chatgpt · seal 3d80d09eb53d75200696356a4e073ffb7f280695c3bf4bb8d32af38989592e89 · link 6b4bc7c573ea66d0afe2959fd56567113b16a3ce425df20993291f758af63415 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=959 · answer · grok · seal 477505a532aaeef6961402a1e10459c166cd2a694c3b57299d598d139edfb5c6 · link 2d3605977c79054e759a01af8b7b4604ef7ff9ccfb837fe7025bd02eaacc5bf1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=960 · answer · deepseek · seal 4caf8cdd5fd6df94f34966ba8de0ca4214a63611b46517e5be53594c75606ccc · link 125df2e8d5bca7f4181fb699a93420771ca3758f46fd934abc29b7add713f86b — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=961 · answer · wenxin · seal e1e257cc9e39a4040707429da48b7d6f46126186f71c6b3538d9adb9724a7d3b · link a739223e5ec60617b045ad0456beee6df7fec0ac5154b5f86e3aac08a8668381 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=962 · answer · gemini · seal e4cc1785e9a6cd826198dc5233f5ffca861d90ac2c5178b0eb47f1f732a11742 · link f4cafa9916153476e7aee8b425815718b2aa70c5bed4daa91882db850507f57e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=963 · answer · stepfun · seal 560c4aeaf8bae3c834b23266f2cb494404e834630b7f54d9abe37e885a0294a2 · link 7b58ecf3f358e07eaf173e2997e502a25978a29f940db9bcf148ea90b10220f8 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=964 · answer · zai · seal 73e7601f80510dc1bcfd681a45b198d370d126a35c2a792e7a70e83208e646f4 · link bedefaba71c15ca555449aa984287a0177994de89915856f708ddf5e90c5e581 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=965 · answer · mimo · seal 5a7a9b83ab156f1b18ca9fd1d57dde29fa6e6116db214d915f5e874f6ec5f34b · link 8449c4e52611613477c2ca86e2bb596316cb483bc17f6006c799dea34c9de561 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=966 · answer · claude · seal fb8028f3a8ece88724fb096308d7d732c6c9745dd3436102243136c0acb0a0bf · link 81297c23d78a5323574d99c76dac25146a51e9a2f0b64bb801b014018e786d14 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140042Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=967 · ask_version · · seal 89417ee7eeab9f84881993fbd0cb12f1c45332ef16ab5617ca82102548ff11c8 · link 119d2896b4736be2ac3337f838c5416fdc161fb7d90ab19e85718e9d8b86597b — a record of the book · stamped in 142414Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=968 · answer · kimi · seal d17ef545fb8c07cf21f130e0debc3e0b124220a545ce41397782e60ceb67e671 · link d511c510fff01fc9dd7e9c1de5912eb8d0a8c8842515e8fcadc75a1df3ddbd08 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142414Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=969 · answer · meta · seal 5e6df7151d1e3675a4c9a33640ceba0f999944b5c8fc449a1d4649e93bf5a576 · link d7f8632afe025568556a63b098c9a8876c5d15bd2ec039f2f790d6ccd87fac33 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142414Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=970 · raw_page · nova · seal 800724b487a7b3e8d0a4d127b8620ce7f8725a46aa04ef1d6c8ac9f0baaf64e6 · link 5714a4fd7ba62af5585eaaa69774722f54f9ebbca891e695569352c181405164 — a record of the book · stamped in 142414Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=971 · raw_page · nemotron · seal 0630607adb253d474188294eda6d923abbc090622a74b2e751a9b05280b01c80 · link 28066be5821467e3138db321209790cad54c83b6edc3a4ad8f5590d8c24a261b — a record of the book · stamped in 142414Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=972 · answer · nova · seal 2e3586125e6dcc1b0da58e2f39e2fb62ec1a71341f7809425709c3ef61bc1806 · link 7dde7ff0168658f3f387b3a96da30ca4f93fe34dbbc6ad7c4f9f34d3ecd97de9 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 145349Z.txt (2026-11-06 14:53:49 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=973 · answer · qwen · seal d26987896a5a262e1674a29501594a797fd6eeed1c23660ee17cd0a2eaa50b86 · link bb17f1364d3da7120909ec5f7886cb7e5d0b7306bb4df615c18763fdec78d9cb — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 152610Z.txt (2026-11-06 15:26:10 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  20. n=974 · answer · nemotron · seal 8a9b998e1565a8a5a7d5674cf25d019955515be62e92d68ee47f3951a118a572 · link 02fec7df12365f10b33c84131eb0fd28db345dc95762028a0d2d1c378ebbe01d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 153528Z.txt (2026-11-06 15:35:28 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  21. n=979 · score · · seal 912add06b7c8318698c24090af8c4524927ac1b4cb2c2a1b10a016b5778f4901 · link befe2ff62d05850bef5832812b68a12013c006ce26fb870751337a13655238d3 — the forecast score of the day · stamped later in 230113Z.txt (2026-11-06 23:01:13 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  22. n=980 · portfolio · · seal 31bd579a1579a921f8d1a5b052e3994e57bffad0fb8b9a2b7c45249d4810768c · link 636f9af35c21609da2fca6c9e43e9d183a7c22f8af735354312f27450681cd56 — the books of the forecasts, valued at the close · stamped later in 004502Z.txt (2026-11-07 00:45:02 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  23. n=981 · score · · seal 449da2e3c992209b00c54cd9c388ac45d8f2862827c1630054177cc4aceb3691 · link 7992bbaf75778cb4ecdc70902b31c5ee40f47f2a7916916ed4a1688cd5cf7eae — the forecast score of the day · stamped later in 004502Z.txt (2026-11-07 00:45:02 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  24. n=982 · experiment · · seal 602368b539894d4e72686c7b67fbee46e2494e89c48710ec18141c2e5cd63448 · link 51f1e42a98328b823eeec991ad648eae5d7a70d23f4b34f21f0dad6cd3e21ffb — the readers' experiment · stamped later in 004502Z.txt (2026-11-07 00:45:02 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  25. n=983 · score_h · · seal 95a319e9e91a67abc95967f44a039cd422bc364a4f41f6457368e489cc0fc5c7 · link ab73082523903473374e11b733365c44f74f0c39dddf3944908a7730047069e9 — the score of a longer horizon · stamped later in 004502Z.txt (2026-11-07 00:45:02 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  26. n=984 · crowd · · seal cad2ad03862438d4526639ca7542888ee12a985b211f1ffd24d868bcb361b19b · link ad91f3b06aef92c276291b0da4e185d14011f6a3675ce297ece3b75f042e3b07 — a record of the book · stamped later in 020006Z.txt (2026-11-07 02:00:06 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  27. n=985 · arena · · seal 099f12078f5dabeef4118ae087d3d83c3d3760aca346d6b163d828b644b45365 · link faebe9e0fcbf1d5b6cc72ce5dea26ae3e424703a6619aadf5ce9fcda43897a00 — the league's session: trades and values · stamped later in 020006Z.txt (2026-11-07 02:00:06 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →