Verify a forecast: how anyone can check it
Every forecast is written down before the market opens, and here is how anyone can check that it was not changed.
- Download the file with the list
004502Z.txt - Recompute its hash (a fingerprint of the file) on your computer:
shasum -a 256 004502Z.txt - Compare that hash with the outside time stamps below: they were made by others, not by us.
- OpenTimestamps — a free public clock tied to the Bitcoin chain. Check:
ots verify 004502Z.txt.ots - RFC 3161 — time stamps signed by independent time services. Check:
openssl ts -verify -data 004502Z.txt -in 004502Z.txt.digicert.tsr -CAfile /etc/ssl/cert.pem - Rekor — a public log that nobody can quietly edit.
Hash of the latest list:
30f7fe779b2b007e8256191ab57fcbab109e3f573ba6cb54b822dcab2cc7c12c
First seal 2026-11-07 15:23:12 and re-seal 2026-11-07 15:37:32 (UTC), both with outside time stamps.
AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-11-07-btc
All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 14:14:45–15:33:18 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, Sectigo at 15:23:16 and 15:37:32 UTC (the latest — MiMo (Xiaomi), Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE), 46 h 52 min before the open).
Hash of the run: 1b631feccb396e22880a8a013445b23dbbed3048236c4b7f68ea3c4dbf6c16c1 · sealed 2026-11-07T15:23:12Z
4ea62cc795dba5bf135c0edc45e2c7b87187f7882ccb544790268225cae1fccf— as at 2026-11-07 14:12:55 UTC, lines 1002–1003, list 141255Z.txt8234cbca0810f334648b8f572600b63bbc9384aae201df97d853597565aa3b71— as at 2026-11-07 15:23:15 UTC, lines 1002–1018, list 152315Z.txt0944a6251d1c211dce2de18d6bf641750587543131deee76a976caff7f5c76d2— as at 2026-11-07 15:25:34 UTC, lines 1002–1021, list 152534Z.txt1b631feccb396e22880a8a013445b23dbbed3048236c4b7f68ea3c4dbf6c16c1— as at 2026-11-07 15:37:32 UTC, lines 1002–1025 — the hash above
The intake for the score closed at Mon, Nov 9, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-09T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.
The run’s day, step by step
- prices snapshot
- the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
- answers sealed in the book, the last at 15:33:18 UTC
- hash of the run sealed
- lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 15:37:32 UTC
- seal updated with the run’s next line
- Bitcoin block 974951 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)
- the open: intake closes, reference prices
- the day scored
What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.
Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.
Who is in the league in this issue
The roster is sealed in the run line (n=1005) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →
USA
- Gemini
gemini— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1011 · forecast · league · Pro league - Claude
claude— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1017 · forecast · league · Pro league - Meta AI
meta— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1018 · forecast · league · Pro league - Grok
grok— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1008 · forecast · league · Pro league - ChatGPT
chatgpt— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1015 · forecast · league · Pro league - Nemotron + Mercury (search)
nemotron— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1007 · forecast · league · Pro league; n=1021 · league · Pro league · asked again - Amazon Nova
nova— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1006 · forecast · league · Pro league; n=1019 · league · asked again
China
- Kimi
kimi— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1014 · forecast · league · Pro league - Qwen
qwen— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1012 · forecast · league · Pro league - MiMo (Xiaomi)
mimo— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1024 · forecast · league · Pro league - Z.ai
zai— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1016 · forecast · league · Pro league - DeepSeek
deepseek— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1009 · forecast · league · Pro league - Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)
wenxin— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1010 · forecast · league · Pro league; n=1020 · league · asked again; n=1023 · forecast · league · Pro league - Step 5 Preview
stepfun— Council: forecasts and the league: n=1013 · forecast · league · Pro league
Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)
- 152315Z.txt
- 152315Z.txt.ots
- 152320Z.txt
- 152320Z.txt.ots
- 152534Z.txt
- 152534Z.txt.ots
- 153257Z.txt
- 153257Z.txt.ots
- 153732Z.txt
- 153732Z.txt.ots
- 153719Z.txt
- 153719Z.txt.ots
- 153318Z.txt
- 153318Z.txt.ots
- 152231Z.txt
- 152231Z.txt.ots
- 145558Z.txt
- 145558Z.txt.ots
- 143239Z.txt
- 143239Z.txt.ots
- 142649Z.txt
- 142649Z.txt.ots
- 142348Z.txt
- 142348Z.txt.ots
- 142047Z.txt
- 142047Z.txt.ots
- 141746Z.txt
- 141746Z.txt.ots
- 141445Z.txt
- 141445Z.txt.ots
- 141257Z.txt
- 141257Z.txt.ots
- 141255Z.txt
- 141255Z.txt.ots
- 040006Z.txt
- 040006Z.txt.ots
- 032629Z.txt
- 032629Z.txt.ots
- 031650Z.txt
- 031650Z.txt.ots
- 031334Z.txt
- 031334Z.txt.ots
- 030006Z.txt
- 030006Z.txt.ots
- 022435Z.txt
- 022435Z.txt.ots
- 021826Z.txt
- 021826Z.txt.ots
- 021525Z.txt
- 021525Z.txt.ots
- 021224Z.txt
- 021224Z.txt.ots
- 021117Z.txt
- 021117Z.txt.ots
- 020006Z.txt
- 020006Z.txt.ots
- 004502Z.txt
- 004502Z.txt.ots
Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl
Check the seal in one click
Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.
152315Z.txt152320Z.txt152534Z.txt153257Z.txt153732Z.txt153719Z.txt153318Z.txt152231Z.txt145558Z.txt143239Z.txt142649Z.txt142348Z.txt142047Z.txt141746Z.txt141445Z.txt141257Z.txt141255Z.txt040006Z.txt032629Z.txt031650Z.txt031334Z.txt030006Z.txt022435Z.txt021826Z.txt021525Z.txt021224Z.txt021117Z.txt020006Z.txt004502Z.txt
Who was asked
Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.
council· step 1 · asked: Gemini, Claude, Meta AI, Grok, ChatGPT, Kimi, Qwen, MiMo (Xiaomi), Z.ai, DeepSeek · spares: Nemotron + Mercury (search), Amazon Nova, Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE), Step 5 Preview · every one of them was sent the question · seal f4f65ab1efa74ff4…council-bench-retry-portfolio· asked: Nemotron + Mercury (search), Amazon Nova, Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) · every one of them was sent the question · seal f4e9ec9a476503de…council· step 2 · asked: MiMo (Xiaomi) · every one of them was sent the question · seal f9ac6e66407c7913…council-cb· asked: Gemini, Claude, Meta AI, Nemotron + Mercury (search), Amazon Nova, Qwen, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Step 5 Preview · every one of them was sent the question · seal b6901054926f0083…council-mod2· asked: Claude · every one of them was sent the question · seal be8cf344be05f222…
Each answer, step by step
For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.
| Step | Model | Sent | Raw answer | Book line | Stamped list | Stamped after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| council · step 1 | Gemini | 14:12:55 | 14:18:02 b8b01048ddd9 | n=1011 · 15:23:14 | 142047Z.txt | 164 s |
| council · step 1 | Claude | 14:12:55 | 14:55:55 195c08b181f6 | n=1017 · 15:23:14 | 145558Z.txt | 3 s |
| council · step 1 | Meta AI | 14:12:55 | 15:22:22 828cafedb613 | n=1018 · 15:23:14 | 152231Z.txt | 8 s |
| council · step 1 | ChatGPT | 14:12:55 | 14:24:55 a760a0d6e822 | n=1015 · 15:23:14 | 142649Z.txt | 113 s |
| council · step 1 | Grok | 14:12:55 | 14:16:05 7ca2c46a6cf3 | n=1008 · 15:23:13 | 141746Z.txt | 101 s |
| council · step 1 | Kimi | 14:12:55 | 14:23:45 ed66deee42fd | n=1014 · 15:23:14 | 142348Z.txt | 3 s |
| council · step 1 | Qwen | 14:12:55 | 14:19:50 0a3e10f22e6d | n=1012 · 15:23:14 | 142047Z.txt | 57 s |
| council · step 1 | DeepSeek | 14:12:55 | 14:16:44 5f904ab2a955 | n=1009 · 15:23:13 | 141746Z.txt | 61 s |
| council · step 1 | Z.ai | 14:12:55 | 14:32:39 a56a7e410fc8 | n=1016 · 15:23:14 | 143239Z.txt | 0 s |
| council · step 1 | MiMo (Xiaomi) | 14:12:55 | — | — | — | — |
| council · step 1 | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 14:12:56 | 14:15:27 2ffd193313c5 | n=1007 · 15:23:13 | 141746Z.txt | 139 s |
| council · step 1 | Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) | 14:12:56 | 14:17:31 1c4729b3b9ee | n=1010 · 15:23:14 | 141746Z.txt | 15 s |
| council · step 1 | Amazon Nova | 14:12:56 | 14:14:45 b7e2d93e7d4c | n=1006 · 15:23:13 | 141445Z.txt | 0 s |
| council · step 1 | Step 5 Preview | 14:13:04 | 14:20:59 b0e96141a1cd | n=1013 · 15:23:14 | 142348Z.txt | 168 s |
| council-bench-retry-portfolio | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 15:23:20 | 15:24:43 711be905e088 | — | — | — |
| council-bench-retry-portfolio | Amazon Nova | 15:23:20 | 15:23:55 bc9afc010f94 | — | — | — |
| council-bench-retry-portfolio | Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) | 15:23:20 | 15:24:16 10c858d5c923 | — | — | — |
| council · step 2 | MiMo (Xiaomi) | 15:25:51 | 15:33:18 a9a930cf4c05 | n=1024 · 15:37:31 | 153318Z.txt | 0 s |
| council · step 2 | Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) | 15:32:55 | 15:37:18 7c0a76398fdd | n=1023 · 15:37:31 | 153719Z.txt | 0 s |
| council-cb | Gemini | 19:20:23 | 19:22:18 71c8607c26ce | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Claude | 19:20:23 | 19:22:17 cbab38744741 | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Meta AI | 19:20:23 | 19:34:13 a5b6b860e23c | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Nemotron + Mercury (search) | 19:20:23 | 19:22:50 5edc8ff434fc | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Amazon Nova | 19:20:23 | 19:21:06 671ae3a2d0f3 | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Qwen | 19:20:23 | 19:25:29 9d720e3c5a1e | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Z.ai | 19:20:23 | 19:28:52 b456b77e233f | — | — | — |
| council-cb | DeepSeek | 19:20:23 | 19:22:37 4d0911979818 | — | — | — |
| council-cb | Step 5 Preview | 19:20:23 | 19:22:58 5c85962698cb | — | — | — |
| council-mod2 | Claude | 20:11:14 | 20:27:10 238771da3216 | — | — | — |
Which list covers which lines of the book
Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256
| stamped list | lines of the Council’s book | sha256 |
|---|---|---|
004502Z.txt | 1–983 | 69e2b688da9f245e… |
020006Z.txt | 1–990 | b8ef3b6b3216bf6a… |
021117Z.txt | 1–990 | b8ef3b6b3216bf6a… |
021224Z.txt | 1–1226 | 345261558795fc88… |
021525Z.txt | 1–990 | b8ef3b6b3216bf6a… |
021826Z.txt | 1–990 | b8ef3b6b3216bf6a… |
022435Z.txt | 1–990 | b8ef3b6b3216bf6a… |
030006Z.txt | 1–999 | f115628e1d569281… |
031334Z.txt | 1–999 | f115628e1d569281… |
031650Z.txt | 1–999 | f115628e1d569281… |
032629Z.txt | 1–1000 | e742af7d24f22e21… |
040006Z.txt | 1–1001 | bdaa8032e6fc1ff2… |
141255Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
141257Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
141445Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
141746Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
142047Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
142348Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
142649Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
143239Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
145558Z.txt | 1–1003 | 4e05b09e702f4db3… |
152231Z.txt | 1–1004 | 6d141814740e42e7… |
152315Z.txt | 1–1018 | 567c759f3bb2d1bd… |
152320Z.txt | 1–1018 | 567c759f3bb2d1bd… |
152534Z.txt | 1–1021 | 74043df63d9c4f70… |
153257Z.txt | 1–1021 | 74043df63d9c4f70… |
153318Z.txt | 1–1021 | 74043df63d9c4f70… |
153719Z.txt | 1–1021 | 74043df63d9c4f70… |
153732Z.txt | 1–1025 | 5736195cea59dea5… |
Two outside clocks on every stamped list
Each answer: when its list was signed
- Amazon Nova — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- ChatGPT — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Claude — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- DeepSeek — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Gemini — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Grok — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Kimi — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Meta AI — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Nemotron + Mercury (search) — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Qwen — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Step 5 Preview — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- Z.ai — 15:23:16 UTC (47 h 6 min before the open), DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
- MiMo (Xiaomi) — 15:37:32 UTC (46 h 52 min before the open), DigiCert, Sectigo
- Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) — 15:37:32 UTC (46 h 52 min before the open), DigiCert, Sectigo
152315Z.txt· Rekor 3740392965 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974951 (header time 2026-11-07 16:41:35 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 15:23:16 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 15:23:16 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 15:23:16 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 15:23:19 UTC152320Z.txt· Rekor 3740394623 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974951 (header time 2026-11-07 16:41:35 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 15:23:20 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 15:23:20 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 15:23:20 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 15:23:23 UTC152534Z.txt· Rekor 3740446413 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974951 (header time 2026-11-07 16:41:35 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 15:25:36 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 15:25:36 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 15:25:36 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 15:25:48 UTC153257Z.txt· Rekor 3740600740 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974951 (header time 2026-11-07 16:41:35 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 15:32:57 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 15:32:57 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 15:32:57 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 15:33:01 UTC153732Z.txt· Rekor 3740680959 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974951 (header time 2026-11-07 16:41:35 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 15:37:33 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 15:37:32 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 15:37:32 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 15:37:36 UTC153719Z.txt· Rekor 3740676201 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974951 (header time 2026-11-07 16:41:35 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 15:37:19 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 15:37:19 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 15:37:19 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 15:37:24 UTC153318Z.txt· Rekor 3740607519 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974951 (header time 2026-11-07 16:41:35 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 15:33:19 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 15:33:18 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 15:33:18 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 15:33:22 UTC152231Z.txt· Rekor 3740384353 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974951 (header time 2026-11-07 16:41:35 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 15:22:32 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 15:22:32 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 15:22:51 UTC145558Z.txt· Rekor 3740007990 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974944 (header time 2026-11-07 15:10:13 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:56:05 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:56:03 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:56:03 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:52 UTC143239Z.txt· Rekor 3740006039 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974942 (header time 2026-11-07 14:40:41 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:32:39 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:32:39 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:32:39 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:44 UTC142649Z.txt· Rekor 3740003697 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974942 (header time 2026-11-07 14:40:41 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:26:49 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:26:49 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:26:49 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:35 UTC142348Z.txt· Rekor 3740002633 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974942 (header time 2026-11-07 14:40:41 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:23:48 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:23:48 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:23:48 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:30 UTC142047Z.txt· Rekor 3740001213 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974942 (header time 2026-11-07 14:40:41 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:20:47 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:20:47 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:20:47 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:25 UTC141746Z.txt· Rekor 3739999750 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974942 (header time 2026-11-07 14:40:41 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:17:46 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:17:46 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:17:46 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:20 UTC141445Z.txt· Rekor 3739998708 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974942 (header time 2026-11-07 14:40:41 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:14:45 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:14:45 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:14:46 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:16 UTC141257Z.txt· Rekor 3739997402 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974942 (header time 2026-11-07 14:40:41 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:12:58 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:12:57 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:12:59 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:11 UTC141255Z.txt· Rekor 3739996622 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974942 (header time 2026-11-07 14:40:41 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 14:12:56 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 14:12:56 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 14:12:56 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 14:56:07 UTC040006Z.txt· Rekor 3729173796 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974891 (header time 2026-11-07 04:23:06 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: digicert 2026-11-07 04:00:14 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 04:01:29 UTC032629Z.txt· Rekor 3728656344 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974888 (header time 2026-11-07 04:06:19 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 03:26:31 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 03:26:29 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 03:26:29 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 03:26:45 UTC031650Z.txt· Rekor 3728656075 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974890 (header time 2026-11-07 04:12:53 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: digicert 2026-11-07 03:17:01 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 03:16:59 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 03:26:43 UTC031334Z.txt· Rekor 3728497381 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974888 (header time 2026-11-07 04:06:19 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: digicert 2026-11-07 03:13:34 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 03:13:34 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 03:13:59 UTC030006Z.txt· Rekor 3728275515 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974883 (header time 2026-11-07 03:26:25 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 03:00:09 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 03:00:06 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 03:00:06 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 03:00:59 UTC022435Z.txt· Rekor 3727834993 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974883 (header time 2026-11-07 03:26:25 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 02:24:35 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 02:24:35 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 02:24:35 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 02:24:39 UTC021826Z.txt· Rekor 3727789477 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974880 (header time 2026-11-07 02:42:15 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 02:18:26 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 02:18:26 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 02:18:26 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 02:18:29 UTC021525Z.txt· Rekor 3727758015 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974880 (header time 2026-11-07 02:42:15 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 02:15:25 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 02:15:25 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 02:15:25 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 02:15:29 UTC021224Z.txt· Rekor 3727736530 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 975511 (header time 2026-11-12 02:37:49 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-12 02:12:25 UTC · digicert 2026-11-12 02:12:25 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-12 02:12:25 UTC · in the public log since 2026-11-07 02:12:29 UTC021117Z.txt· Rekor 3727727393 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974880 (header time 2026-11-07 02:42:15 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 02:11:18 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 02:11:18 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 02:11:18 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 02:11:22 UTC020006Z.txt· Rekor 3727679495 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974880 (header time 2026-11-07 02:42:15 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 02:00:07 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 02:00:07 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 02:00:07 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 02:00:19 UTC004502Z.txt· Rekor 3727122327 — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 974874 (header time 2026-11-07 01:30:34 UTC, tolerance up to ~2 h) · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-11-07 00:45:03 UTC · digicert 2026-11-07 00:45:03 UTC · sectigo 2026-11-07 00:45:03 UTC · before the intake closed · in the public log since 2026-11-07 00:45:28 UTC
Chain of lists
152315Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/152231Z.txtsha256139454802305cf4320eca03a44437977065d82052ff2dc3eea252b8a5c38ded7· hash equal152320Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/152315Z.txtsha25629c4e58678272865fad754598a195204d8d4a04b7785a73148db2ff2f2077fc6· hash equal152534Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/152320Z.txtsha256f58e6fcbe0806647b11da0a751a094256fe9db206a9938ee6ca8000172b7a83c· hash equal153257Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/152534Z.txtsha256a6a74fffc0f9f73d9c5f97d993f0b1832d0ba3d3ea5bcfb92b890b91dca311ca· hash equal153732Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/153719Z.txtsha256ba7d73e391abe4327db958c4988c3e43f522009c46dd2bc9bf5c4ee97a434585· hash equal153719Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/153318Z.txtsha25667b9ea3878a19b46c9016e2898155853fe6a691d6c76bfd300cf97dfa3daabaf· hash equal153318Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/153257Z.txtsha25637d7beec6e56fb399bcc2baf2eff4d2b65aa038e4761078b367c015d0da27fc2· hash equal152231Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/145558Z.txtsha256366936b8a40bb56f2a99fcd706b4011642a2da590009136fb3a4843a016421b7· hash equal145558Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/143239Z.txtsha2565535664ea6b9c217e6e6f2e8ae050dea8074af8cd0303c46666e7510125bea9f· hash equal143239Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/142649Z.txtsha25647c42cdf849b259bb458e353dd6be480ba96089e1f1e9d4f7a7d86492f09ebbe· hash equal142649Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/142348Z.txtsha2565a5620766401d69f3e7585798a9fe9409d1007d0ba7d1eafdd8fb2705598848f· hash equal142348Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/142047Z.txtsha2569eaf24275e48de72b0190d8b14b2816a22a771d07d99f1fcd8ea2a33071d85cf· hash equal142047Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/141746Z.txtsha25648cd6baa1e1f127dec89f38e4d78a19997294fd91ce982b83b32c31f90227170· hash equal141746Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/141445Z.txtsha25630ee982f9870005b111166f1556d7f768c5c7f1c4126359e8a7f841a80d0569d· hash equal141445Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/141257Z.txtsha2562ecb70fadc2a1269ac27cf8689dcc1018afd70b3ec37df5134c6fbd8415d7c42· hash equal141257Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/141255Z.txtsha25698380b399c621b087f925f130338f667ae3e6599eb91f550c5f0f8aaa0746cc9· hash equal141255Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/040006Z.txtsha256db8399603436162921a30d271c5afc7e72e97a2a99319a8d71aa4c8d504a018b· hash equal040006Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/032629Z.txtsha2568aeed152c7a90abda538f304aca7b4918cddb3d129a2dcb1d2238dc89f874e51· hash equal032629Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/031650Z.txtsha256211fc6fb1d70da42fce688f3080fe83a6099645f21778c829c14c04b91ac1fdd· hash equal031650Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/031334Z.txtsha2562c6c0d9bd681919a3137003d360143a6ef849eb7d52e199ecd58c52d8aba09d0· hash equal031334Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/030006Z.txtsha2560a3d8b5357c225f81d98dbfa75a4b62d4ed11207f6f47f93325ae418a0c4af93· hash equal030006Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/022435Z.txtsha2562222b9db7f5d82a302a8a13a680908e5db348aa54bb653531caac5e5b674a77d· hash equal022435Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/021826Z.txtsha2560a3ce926c7d9be40a6a4e7f465cb739396286fbc12239e0411109d769287cf82· hash equal021826Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/021525Z.txtsha2565fb956c75c19ac06dfecbeafeb81de6d54dbbcb0d879fae982e154dcf0a1a76d· hash equal021525Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/021224Z.txtsha256ef214a601a03c69048e38cd2cdf28cceecb6e3bd7dd60ce8b805d09613ae4d84· hash equal021224Z.txt— previous list2026-11-12/020004Z.txtsha256a0e6f02354b607bd1ec3beba10e6d69adee02469ff288845a050e29cc03543fc· hash equal021117Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/020006Z.txtsha2565edfc8929164f4b4d6a10d7998197018b412b5cf32c3b08b3c8dfd04547a86ee· hash equal020006Z.txt— previous list2026-11-07/004502Z.txtsha25630f7fe779b2b007e8256191ab57fcbab109e3f573ba6cb54b822dcab2cc7c12c· hash equal004502Z.txt— previous list2026-11-06/233636Z.txtsha256dcb27beb35fed530e3321bea3bed0cf364732840010048cf1190c37594601cc7· hash equal
Every question sent is sealed before its answer
22 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl
- 15:25:50 UTC · council · step 2: the common part of the question is the same bytes for every seat asked; sha256
12c8a67006386d17eb0e27d40fdc320526ba070cbb3ed955c433dbd996b0799e - 20:11:14 UTC · council-mod2: the common part of the question is the same bytes for every seat asked; sha256
b17aa3693b88abbf1a862cd686dfca91bcad44a0a3c29e0f85d9f6c1630033cb
Which run counts
From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).
sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾
с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные
From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.
sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾
from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries
Check it yourself
Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).
- the time each service signed:
openssl ts -reply -in 152315Z.txt.freetsa.tsr -text - the signature against the service root (freetsa):
openssl ts -verify -data 152315Z.txt -in 152315Z.txt.freetsa.tsr -CAfile freetsa-cacert.pem -untrusted freetsa-tsa.crt - the signature against the service root (digicert):
openssl ts -verify -data 152315Z.txt -in 152315Z.txt.digicert.tsr -CAfile /etc/ssl/cert.pem - the signature against the service root (sectigo):
openssl ts -verify -data 152315Z.txt -in 152315Z.txt.sectigo.tsr -CAfile /etc/ssl/cert.pem - the Bitcoin block of the stamp:
ots verify 152315Z.txt.ots - without a Bitcoin node: the output names BitcoinBlockHeaderAttestation(974951); the Merkle root of block 974951 on any block explorer must be b7f618e8484122d848ed7c72e87644e19fa77119e74ed1a6338739e2690f3425:
ots info 152315Z.txt.ots - the question text equals its sealed hash:
shasum -a 256 asked/e1350656b501ef14b38f3e8f383bcaed182924e21409ee55167a182a012a365c.md - the whole chain of questions, line by line:
python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals, seals_asks; seals.ISSUES_DIR = '<DIR>'; sys.exit(seals_asks.main(['verify']))" - the chain of lists, each naming the one before it:
python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals; sys.exit(seals.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" - Recount the published Brier from the open files (exit code 0 — reproduced, 1 — differs):
python3 tools/replay_brier.py https://polyhelper.ai/trends/api/v1/ - each list’s entry in the public log: its digest and our key:
python3 -I -c "import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'tools'); import seals_rekor; sys.exit(seals_rekor.main(['verify', '--issues', '<DIR>']))" - the chain of the Council’s book, line by line:
python3 -I tools/verify_chain.py council-book.jsonl
Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 1401 of 1401 · the log entries · public key
Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt
Checks by others
Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json
Copies of sealed lines
In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv
Lines of the book
n=1002 · cb_packet · · seal 89b5226d2e3f6e110f1a8f43b5d56cfad50cc05033bbb27b71e6013b49a24f9e · link 94fd57906808894b089f364509b8c05270afd4ca2c91d9d9a411a0c2a04ae4fe— a record of the book · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1003 · swap · · seal 4c29e8c3889d8217c9639ba58336fb658701f8604eae3ac8610bf0bfe5816f23 · link 72e72b21d41972456f4293f23377c581398f65b1dd76b4ce97b7b869feea2df7— a record of the book · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1005 · run · · seal 98c382d52addca4abf7bd7d0dbc4cddb8cae4839d566e274dde83b833ce757f3 · link f62e7974b9ac49958d7e3438d41b6d2f1dd4bc9968c097fece6246f65f70649c— the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1006 · answer · nova · seal 17e84dca189de873628ed660b5cd48ed7bd6da42d494e993fc407b65695bfa17 · link c4d4925fad6049e3a0dd4b7224974803c10b26fcf5bc67945ffb8b190d3f7c41— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1007 · answer · nemotron · seal 61970bfc5706993e3f54cee8fd185b8cfbb39787bcd96bbbad591d37a2f370c9 · link 1879efd1693f591153ca3fb3cd45791e7cb0c8761b94adc2113e3875cafa7d95— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1008 · answer · grok · seal f8d997e932aa21b5e2ca73ddaac1c67b46371a24403d63052bcd0b1de6fa8093 · link f2d75a96361ba33a0f7dc598c722695c1938d04161506bd3cdbe46c414998118— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1009 · answer · deepseek · seal 5393a1a7d066307faad919a24eb7fccec52c934a20e4b38d050d65242032f376 · link d4cf7254672ebe73b64123e8366a34894110206c8c2bb4c20ecd5a0b70bd6907— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1010 · answer · wenxin · seal edeae63b5d07149283b20650c1bf932d4eac5641fca51d5f7d1612a88e416bb6 · link 86d84b675827613cbdf15ba55963ad834c036fb721f4fd789e780205ee51418c— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1011 · answer · gemini · seal 0899a6b247394cd8902b4dd5cc2cac55b467b5dde7ff23da2db869b0426afead · link 6facefb0d0090a6add54f683d21ea124958bd8f1f6889058d0e02855eff870af— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1012 · answer · qwen · seal 0cb424d013728a85f8a7abccecd10024ef5a5f2feb3b6ce4df6c4d7d7c2d6e80 · link 00336631d1fd24245e8467493db8577765457d9e4853f4fb908b7e2772a1f787— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1013 · answer · stepfun · seal 0a7ee01281252488558de6e491f2f964d6900be365baf45ba53ca6a17f5ae234 · link fbfbf1fd30735c6843f26ee351ad025e2b47b3037975963be1bc2549b3bd4f97— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1014 · answer · kimi · seal 3e9d0c3c80dbbb062a779e6d4a1b724f0a26165fda9f5168dd166109300d8b9e · link d7c9dc9081110ce093ac452473a6659280130983bde1408dd3a1a68f8f3b7a11— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1015 · answer · chatgpt · seal b4c7188b224e3a6a28d006420edcb5e7838b4132aed63188fbdd5eb6748205cf · link b136954e6c14303b0e84d06279b26a7af147e7ba2f3b36f803590339d8a087c3— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1016 · answer · zai · seal cfb3636597590959ae2164d3d1130e8c0fd8313f00f95405e89acc8c9bf03f81 · link 029fd7ad0ca8221e134b227b4337b28ef89099fadcbf7df01acbf14ca67e3830— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1017 · answer · claude · seal c4980bb6e689504f423a869a41bc4d8537916cae539bbed4e05a8fc534543f0a · link 205981b3374634112878d953ec3731b7c02fad0a58a6a00baf4f945cf7c35ade— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1018 · answer · meta · seal 39528c7385f844777a69842ba6610a0e329b2a1c03ac3326da9e44d96cb1c7ff · link 626845dba6973ebff90a202c739bcd89afbc55b99c1532e4ca64c6e7e2c5c564— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 152315Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1019 · bench · nova · seal aa711464fd5dbe31133974f599162a81b7ea72e0c01fc057bd03d4c5d7524ad5 · link 32b441f4c3701323a14c29803c298acd379e1e9893bfd0312b917e2779fc03a2— league · asked again · stamped in 152534Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1020 · bench · wenxin · seal ad5fa12270d92cb8bc3412188ef850a2f8b911995f71498ec4f51776799a8517 · link e41518d9926d7fb002243742798c3a22a451e8f92d4991051b02e085ec5399ad— league · asked again · stamped in 152534Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1021 · bench · nemotron · seal b15e3e5deb54beb3036a03438bff737914d35b5b4c1c595985aed1e487912eab · link 04093e6c2bd5b27420ba33bebb05ba96dba4fa76e05c59e7b489e7e1a991a022— league · Pro league · asked again · stamped in 152534Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1022 · ask_version · · seal 42b8e5762931014f018f9916680b12f12f53cf45796d7e6c43091bcd001a52bf · link 8915f418ac6cef9f453f8ccb06078465eb9416eeb45029b73694863305f742b0— a record of the book · stamped in 153732Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1023 · answer · wenxin · seal 433756465044af7352092acc7909f2f40727bf839e690ee1490d64c3c478c601 · link e2ae410576c78453af3e1eef898dc4f43610f2940a47c0a86563c3486f0b70dd— forecast · league · Pro league · stamped in 153732Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1025 · addition · wenxin · seal 9edab3ab4311c22efbd617ba15d9317649ca0de631c4750740baf65876848210 · link d7795a9a08f388b8ed1f7c06f1eac82527c9e3395e4b1b99bd27b9467dc802d0— an addition to line n=1023 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 153732Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1024 · answer · mimo · seal b366c847c6d02a1a5cb580c17dcccfb93459ce5bda69d97b7c202febe9c5c187 · link 02288f33afb173e193479fc3cf9773d7f879ea04db82df29fe448fe11dbcc4b4— forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 153732Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1026 · closed_book · nova · seal 339e2c75fb79d1365beb1b34256a8afd87ee49570391e058055ae7327f8d9e61 · link 11c1cbc32d7bdba8d9848f2aa0c644c0a666d01778570f3239b2299cdf5c0150— a record of the book · stamped later in 193416Z.txt (2026-11-07 19:34:16 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1027 · closed_book · gemini · seal c79355fd0e9894e9ecae05fe6abbac94435ad91be7ae2c2389791fe77353cb93 · link 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59a1926cf55da715fd7ef5c8ab794f2ddd448e4451f2c8f3e85c0d9dca68dea5— a record of the book · stamped later in 201114Z.txt (2026-11-07 20:11:14 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1034 · closed_book · meta · seal ff341eb8126e5de30f00c02aa67939c614b912091380bb68deef127e203360c9 · link b65b7b5a82dc5c56ad6803b03a0e93a31b0be23579589b39aa048b49d3e445b9— a record of the book · stamped later in 201114Z.txt (2026-11-07 20:11:14 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigon=1105 · score_view · · seal 7047754bab58a76634b329c3a764032594de1c146527031ca3077f6e90a583bc · link c2e1869b48bea8541d9625c2f48fb9a056ea986458b838ee617fa564d3998d03— a record of the book · stamped later in 220003Z.txt (2026-11-09 22:00:03 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo