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Verify a forecast: how anyone can check it

Every forecast is written down before the market opens, and here is how anyone can check that it was not changed.

  1. Download the file with the list 002232Z.txt
  2. Recompute its hash (a fingerprint of the file) on your computer: shasum -a 256 002232Z.txt
  3. Compare that hash with the outside time stamps below: they were made by others, not by us.

Hash of the latest list:

df2866b7f01fe790b91374614b3aaf8cfe46381554e6a01c881296cc1301bc69

First seal 2026-11-12 14:08:30 and re-seal 2026-11-12 14:29:49 (UTC), both with outside time stamps.

AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-11-12-am

Hash of the run: e85b281232c61d7c63a2bf2f01e66bd13aadd90313668897585389d25c005fdf · sealed 2026-11-12T14:08:30Z

Covers lines 1244–1259 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-11-12 14:08:30 UTC, seal updated 2026-11-12 14:29:49 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. e988dcbc962afea2d83e87216e532d35290c12326e2c20794ffaf49de7fbd5af — as at 2026-11-12 11:41:00 UTC, lines 1244–1245, list 114100Z.txt
  2. 0e3d7d3057f61f0f4d9370baf8a4ebfce80c3899db0d6c837366ddacc7b144ec — as at 2026-11-12 14:08:30 UTC, lines 1244–1251, list 140830Z.txt
  3. 51decf7c6c5e916b737cc12a0d52a94f082232ebea123504cfab659f45f820f1 — as at 2026-11-12 14:23:21 UTC, lines 1244–1252, list 142321Z.txt
  4. e85b281232c61d7c63a2bf2f01e66bd13aadd90313668897585389d25c005fdf — as at 2026-11-12 14:29:49 UTC, lines 1244–1259 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–1252 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 d40fff7ded6773e79caf7f1bb38c44f1b366001e7a926393d39fc185fefcd323

The intake for the score closed at Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-11-12T14:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 16:30:05 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 14:29:50 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices
  8. Bitcoin block 975566 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=1246) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Gemini11:41:00————
council · step 1Meta AI11:41:00————
council · step 1Claude11:41:0011:58:38 c148fcbbb0fbn=1251 · 14:08:30115838Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Grok11:41:0011:47:39 977d2d3ca665n=1250 · 14:08:30114942Z.txt122 s
council · step 1ChatGPT11:41:0011:43:40 30cecd9684dbn=1247 · 14:08:30114340Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Kimi11:41:0011:45:40 24aca4f14afbn=1248 · 14:08:30114626Z.txt45 s
council · step 1mimo11:41:00————
council · step 1Qwen11:41:0011:45:45 b85ab7512af7n=1249 · 14:08:30114626Z.txt41 s
council · step 1DeepSeek11:41:00————
council · step 1Z.ai11:41:00————
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)11:46:26————
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:08:36————
council · step 2Gemini14:08:36————
council · step 2Amazon Nova14:08:36————
council · step 2Meta AI14:08:3614:23:20 77f7fe84e847———
council · step 2Step 5 Preview14:08:36————
council · step 2Z.ai14:08:37————
council · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:08:3714:15:51 ae2e2f707a63n=1256 · 14:29:49141629Z.txt37 s
council · step 2DeepSeek14:08:3714:13:28 1de38cd7e3bdn=1255 · 14:29:49141329Z.txt1 s
council · step 2mimo14:08:37————
council · step 2Kimi14:14:1114:18:32 a5bd5602f266n=1254 · 14:29:49141929Z.txt57 s
council · step 2Grok14:23:33————
council · step 3Gemini14:48:33————
council · step 3Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:48:33————
council · step 3Amazon Nova14:48:33————
council · step 3Step 5 Preview14:48:3314:52:18 21d1dea48a7d———
council · step 4Gemini15:52:09————
council · step 4Nemotron + Mercury (search)15:52:09————
council · step 4Amazon Nova15:52:0915:53:08 992af83ef3f7———
council · step 5Gemini16:13:0216:30:05 3a3e629d5704———
council · step 5Nemotron + Mercury (search)16:13:0216:21:24 09c795d5aab0———
council-mod2Claude17:11:4317:26:03 1219e2d908ac———
council-mod2ChatGPT17:11:4317:25:01 012034c91b86———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
002232Z.txt1–1222bd0fa433b8890660…
003830Z.txt1–1222bd0fa433b8890660…
020004Z.txt1–1226345261558795fc88…
021224Z.txt1–1226345261558795fc88…
021302Z.txt1–1226345261558795fc88…
021603Z.txt1–12365172d3f4162576c9…
031303Z.txt1–12365172d3f4162576c9…
031337Z.txt1–1237adb98f66c11195e8…
103004Z.txt1–12434b127a4003a65639…
114100Z.txt1–124568a601bca4351cf3…
114104Z.txt1–124568a601bca4351cf3…
114340Z.txt1–124568a601bca4351cf3…
114626Z.txt1–124568a601bca4351cf3…
114942Z.txt1–124568a601bca4351cf3…
115838Z.txt1–124568a601bca4351cf3…
140830Z.txt1–1251ec4eb4f3e3385587…
141329Z.txt1–1251ec4eb4f3e3385587…
141412Z.txt1–1251ec4eb4f3e3385587…
141629Z.txt1–1251ec4eb4f3e3385587…
141929Z.txt1–1251ec4eb4f3e3385587…
142321Z.txt1–1252d40fff7ded6773e7…
142325Z.txt1–1252d40fff7ded6773e7…
142333Z.txt1–1252d40fff7ded6773e7…
142340Z.txt1–1252d40fff7ded6773e7…
142949Z.txt1–1259591c30255593c042…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Forecast sealed before the 09:30 ET open: service mark digicert 2026-11-12 14:29:50 UTC, covers part of the lines (the file lists which). verdict file

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

33 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-11-12 17:11 UTC

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 1428 of 1428 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=1244 · cb_packet · · seal 64f893d149f4f73d97415c57039477b296f0dea3ce21d73912dc0803501c2b1b · link b0f85794afab07baec5cc04ddfc76a74ab062ff78a7c85096a36bee8d52af8f9 — a record of the book · stamped in 140830Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=1245 · swap · · seal 1791df88227976ccee6de213ea5c47682bd61a70b1ee77a79b39ab064d4c5fb5 · link 6cdd0488a06aa876682f553ed50123c4624c262265ffcfd0c971b054f5237136 — a record of the book · stamped in 140830Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=1246 · run · · seal 9248c403dabafc56d466c143afa5a30d7611baaa9421aa109be19e555b2dcda2 · link 9179c1bdfc888e620e71fafca9651fc2f9ee135c298972d384bb2df5701e2d22 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 140830Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=1247 · answer · chatgpt · seal 2feff8bd3054b0bd5002be6529f904ae8b39814b438c81699d3612f6a26b6d31 · link e370c3e378f462abf8fae3cea4f185224747ea0b32eee9cf78afabc9e57cfb4a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140830Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=1248 · answer · kimi · seal 9fd6bf4cb76eafc304d0fc36fa9ac0fc8d09037f9282b684a97fbc577429c79e · link 59633811ea54bc9bc5281ac6e5a51c693d00dce9849444e8ef99fb359129f811 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140830Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=1249 · answer · qwen · seal 7d5f6f4c10f12a2d4bccb5fd73293b15002827c70d87217231cc4e836362e017 · link d98f7aa85620a4a195fde5e04e3ea60beeb17a608be0c93f9d0cff8990c0498a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140830Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=1250 · answer · grok · seal 98b8d53350ae09b138548fc8f6fa9f651f134647b41ed787f75f7c2296ce8c17 · link 19660680677f6a7ba3ec0f8187a9d4dfbf42a5cf53b1f73c2f7691a77c1e04e4 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140830Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=1251 · answer · claude · seal acaf53619dac0c99362a9f921d2c1c5fbda999784e21ea256e9a3027465f5c3d · link 1112ed6bf8766f817d2244e0caa4af41bdd7236c47014b229c449101de4c0878 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 140830Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=1252 · answer · meta · seal e7c89026e06d46737dc49ff39c5e725766fb500f4b1b372157bad26e775898da · link 020c03be05a65546e56a496d02d1cdbb676bfeb10435f22c6b4a8fd9226f57b0 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142321Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=1259 · addition · meta · seal cd5b6340faf228b5742f0c6f567fc979674f59c785d2b872826c581b7b19fd71 · link 06e0c351f28f3cb50e7c43ce83a9809becb8f4628ed300a149cb775f293e5136 — an addition to line n=1252 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 142949Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=1253 · ask_version · · seal d8c7b00ce3ca8e096c87d79b8bff899f72e575f4205a7b7ea18169752bc914ca · link 3c8861b198fbd9607a5d04c9c58957d62f7dde541e00d25ab9c50b2e0c79157c — a record of the book · stamped in 142949Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=1254 · answer · kimi · seal d274fa8fc792643d9f9e9d28b98c3685061f07db118814d8032cc7616d483c1b · link cb5f629ddf7896cdf8ab8d8d8574ccc7a2afbd8418714b5e81dcbf0f7b5fe896 — forecast · league · Pro league · stamped in 142949Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=1255 · answer · deepseek · seal 02dc04122758142d26f70599fd4a785d51b769d6f59e540dcdb6469bf99ab229 · link 9c0622158e96e1ed4b6aa750b70e6821d55ba876c2d48b9e11a6665aac5d9fb0 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142949Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=1256 · answer · wenxin · seal 91ced8d5efc7b02abc940d54b0d19b529d5c0f9d2fba2f3d3beb25cb82a8f425 · link cc4bb6344ed68d1abb4b95c13b9a4fe0d7ecf536d0e1c3105075629128c14c80 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142949Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=1258 · addition · wenxin · seal 4d9ce8feaf9506152f862a4caf463ed02684a28283e9e4c29871daf8312ba6db · link 23ca5513fee7286e9323452dfb93636adb3ba891bceac6001e91c2e1a80cdc9a — an addition to line n=1256 (the line itself is never rewritten) · stamped in 142949Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=1257 · raw_page · nova · seal 84b062a75cc3238bbe9ccb481147a61976ab5940e57ac81e5b93528b5d167dc1 · link 899a1e28ab9857d22bbae6c2f3b6d2630fff8bb2ab7570e9514a99a4792bea91 — a record of the book · stamped in 142949Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=1260 · answer · zai · seal 5a3412f33ae3e74c90a30c8fab27d48b4be839dd061ee40dc16543c013ff895c · link 991d980e9dab0b9f3995d029e5c0de7319407a46559d4a04e0a48625a49018a5 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 143411Z.txt (2026-11-12 14:34:11 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=1261 · answer · mimo · seal 75fd76125d7a76833048c32999d9d75b25d431d3c2b0386a98faf9742107f45c · link a77a51d5674d7d8e2ad93a3bba2b1a76187eb328d01ef653b43f68629545750b — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 144109Z.txt (2026-11-12 14:41:09 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=1263 · answer · stepfun · seal a392da13fc0385d29248a612633dc70dc9f8af705bc2c3fc841994b686976498 · link b47a542f27dcf423d67f5eb9af5d119f3c0ac6713022b62448495cd9d5338e26 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 145344Z.txt (2026-11-12 14:53:44 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  20. n=1264 · answer · nova · seal 1e07e3d6d8cada90b0202fe6cc840c933c76c7b8b767d32c52ebb26edb85b552 · link a16c68bbeaafbfd37c7936bc9e633749937f9e055a90dadc85b7f68ccc53b77c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 155722Z.txt (2026-11-12 15:57:22 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  21. n=1265 · answer · nemotron · seal b78ef54e120969dd1020f6426278f6395c4bc50d3106c10921fa3a2a7670f2bc · link 4adfa9a5e53e9dd2955ff4ffe83ecd2353dbfc569c46b7a058daf5e46dc115cf — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 163009Z.txt (2026-11-12 16:30:09 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  22. n=1266 · answer · gemini · seal 25d387aef6c304100c58e52d9ca1d6a83291c98ba9be9fece9c3d78e35ca4420 · link c60824b86b3e1f72e0a62f87ee42ff28afe5fc368ecf2bf92b91ea3f58d4d99b — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 163009Z.txt (2026-11-12 16:30:09 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →