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Ligue 1 xG table 2026-27: points vs expected points

Monaco have 14 points from six games on chances worth only 7.3 to 10.1 expected points, while bottom club Le Havre have 2 from chances worth 5.5 to 8.6.

  • No. 1: Marseille
  • 10 places

01Final list

The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

  1. 1

    Marseille

    Uncertain, and about fair: 6 points against 6.7 (Understat) and about 7.7 (statz) expected, so the models disagree on the size and sign of any goal-difference gap.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · Grok: 10 · Gemini: 1 · MiMo: 5 · Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 8

    What each AI noted 6
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grokplace 10

      6 points close to their ~6.7 xPts despite defensive xGA overperformance

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 1

      Punished by a severe 6.0-point xPts deficit, sitting 13th with 6 points despite underlying chance creation worthy of 3rd place (~12.0 xPts across both models).

      Source ↗
    • MiMoplace 5

      Nine goals scored, eight conceded — a positive goal difference — and 14th with six points, the worst return in France for its goal difference.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 1

      Six games, a +1 goal difference and 14th place — three of OM's four defeats came by a single goal.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 8

      Three points from 7.8 xPts is the biggest xPts gap in the cut, but the xGD gap is only +0.5 — hence uncertain.

      Source ↗
    6 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  2. 2

    AS Monaco

    Most flattered by results: 14 points from 6 games against 7.3 (statz), 8.0 (Understat) and 10.1 expected. Goal difference +5 against a statz xGD of -1.6.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 1 · Grok: 1 · MiMo: 1 · Kimi: 5 · DeepSeek: 1

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claudeplace 1

      14 points from an xPts of 7.3 on statz and 10.1 on the other model: the biggest flattering gap, with a +5 goal difference against an xGD of -1.6.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 1

      14 points from 6 games against roughly 8 xPts — the clearest overperformance across providers

      Source ↗
    • MiMoplace 1

      Top of Ligue 1 with 14 points from six games — and 10 goals scored from 7.19 xG, the biggest finishing overperformance in France.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 5

      Unbeaten and third on the 13th-best attack by xG — 10 goals from 1.32 expected per game.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 1

      13 points from 6.2 xPts, and a +5 goal difference from an xGD of -0.4 — the largest overperformance in the equal-games cut.

      Source ↗
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  3. 3

    Le Havre

    Most punished by results: 2 points from 6 games against 5.5 to 8.6 expected, and 4 goals from about 9.9 xG.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 4 · Grok: 3 · MiMo: 3 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 9

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claudeplace 4

      2 points where the models expect 5.5–8.6: the club most punished by results, though the size of the gap differs.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 3

      Only 2 points from performances worth roughly 5–8.6 xPts — the biggest underperformance

      Source ↗
    • MiMoplace 3

      Four goals from 9.94 xG — 5.9 goals of expectation left unspent, the worst in France — and last with two points.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 2

      Bottom of France with the 6th-best chance creation: 1.63 xG a game, four goals.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 9

      Two points from 6.7 xPts; the xG numbers are poor, but the points are even poorer.

      Source ↗
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  4. 4

    Brest

    9 points from 7 games, but every model expects more: 10.7 to 13.0 xPts. Statz rates them 2nd on expected points.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Kimi, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 6 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 2 · MiMo: see list · DeepSeek: 7

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claudeplace 6

      Second on statz expected points (11.7) but 8th–9th with 9: both models say they deserve more.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 4

      9 points while models give them around 13 xPts

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 2

      Flattered by a +4.8 point surplus in 6th place (13 pts), outperforming an 8.2 xPts projection through exceptional goalkeeping and unsustainable box efficiency.

    • MiMo

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • DeepSeekplace 7

      Five points from 9.0 xPts with a positive xGD but a negative actual goal difference.

      Source ↗
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  5. 5

    PSG

    Uncertain: PSG create the most (2.40 xG a game) but score below that, while Understat's 14.03 xPts matches their 14 points.

    Included it: Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Grok: see list · Gemini: see list · MiMo: 9 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 5
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Gemini

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • MiMoplace 9

      OddAlerts call Paris FC the best defence in Ligue 1 (4.98 xGA); FootyStats hand that title to PSG — so sixth place cannot be scored either way.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 6

      Top by xG (2.40 per game, clear of Rennes' 1.87) but only three points clear of fourth and beaten at home by Monaco.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  6. 6

    Stade Rennais

    13 points from 6 games against 8.2 to 9.8 expected. Statz and thefishy agree within 0.2 on how lucky Rennes have been.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, MiMo. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 3 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 6 · MiMo: 4

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 3

      13 points against about 8.3 expected; the two models agree to within 0.2 on how lucky they have been.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 5

      13 points versus roughly 10 xPts

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 6

      Shedding nearly 4 expected points (8 actual vs 11.7 xPts), creating high-value chances that have yielded only 8 goals from 11.2 xG.

    • MiMoplace 4

      13 points from six games on a +2 goal difference — no club in Ligue 1 collects more points per goal of difference.

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  7. 7

    Troyes

    A -11 goal difference, the league's worst, against a statz xGD of only -2.2. Their 4 points trail 5.3 to 7.9 expected.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, MiMo, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 5 · Grok: 6 · Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: 10

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 5

      A -11 goal difference against an xGD of about -2: shots and chances say they are not nearly that bad.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 6

      Low points but underperforming their xG significantly

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 3

      17th with mid-table attacking numbers — 1.51 xG per game, five goals, one win.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 10

      Four points from 5.6 xPts and a -7 goal difference from -3.3 xGD — punished at both ends.

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  8. 8

    Toulouse

    9 points from 7 games against 10.5 to 13.0 expected. Statz and thefishy agree on a shortfall of about 1.5 points, and Understat makes it 4.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, MiMo, Kimi, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 9 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 10 · DeepSeek: 4

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 9

      A steady 1.5-point shortfall in both models: 9 points against about 10.5 expected.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 7

      9 points with models indicating closer to 13 xPts

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 10

      Trapped in the relegation play-off zone (17th, 5 pts) despite underlying numbers (8.6 xPts) arguing they belong comfortably in 11th.

    • DeepSeekplace 4

      Five points from 8.9 xPts and seven goals from 9.4 xG — the clearest case of results punishing performance.

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  9. 9

    Lille

    14 points from 7 games against 9.2 to 11.3 expected: flattered by 2.7 to 4.8 points. The models disagree on Lille's xG (9.2 vs about 5.5).

    Included it: Claude, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 2 · Grok: 2 · DeepSeek: 5

    What each AI noted 3
    • Claudeplace 2

      Unbeaten-ish at 14 points from 7 on 9.2 xG created: results flatter them by 2.7–4.8 points.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 2

      14 points while underlying models suggest closer to 10 xPts

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 5

      Ten points from 6.8 xPts and four goals more than xG — quietly the second-biggest overperformance.

      Source ↗
    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  10. 10

    Le Mans

    The promoted side has 6 points from 7 games, and both xPts models give them 8.2 to 8.4, a near-identical shortfall of about 2 points.

    Included it: Claude, Kimi. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 7 · Kimi: 9

    What each AI noted 2
    • Claudeplace 7

      The promoted side is on 6 points with an xPts of 8.2–8.4, in both tables.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 9

      Promoted and 15th — but already 10 goals from the league's second-lowest xG (1.20 a game).

      Source ↗
    2 AIs put it here
    Source ↗

More about the top three ↓

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

Each model gives different expected points, so every club has a range. Some items count seven matches, not six.

1Marseille

No. 1 — Marseille. On the lists of 6 of 9 AIs; median place there: 5. The AIs saw Marseille's six points as about fair: the models' expected points were close, though they disagreed on the goal-difference gap.

View of Marseille from Notre-Dame de la Garde 4
kallerna · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Decorative bricks - Building in Marseille
Daniela M. · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Haussmann buildings Rue de la Republique Marseille 2026
Mike is Michi · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • When the Vélodrome reopened after its rebuild, 61,846 people watched Marseille beat Toulouse 2–0. That set a new all-time attendance record for the stadium. The rebuilt stadium stayed open for matches during the work.

    Source ↗
What it is
Marseille are 14th in Ligue 1 with 6 points from six games.
Its edge
Its points sit closest to expected points, so luck explains least here.
Who should know
Useful for fans who wonder if a poor start is bad play or just bad luck.
  • Points vs expected points6 pts vs 6.7–7.7 xPts
  • Founded0600
  • HeadquartersBouches-du-Rhône

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • On xG-Edge’s table, Marseille had 9 points against 8.72 expected after 7 matches, a small surplus of 0.28. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
History

  • In 1994, Marseille finished second in the league, but the VA-OM match-fixing affair led to an administrative relegation to the second division. The club was also stripped of its 1993 French title. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Big crowds can also be demanding. In March 2026 Marseille's ultras stayed silent for the first half against Auxerre. Fans then booed their own players at half-time, before singing again in the second half.

    Source ↗
What people say

  • 45 minutes of silence for a season of humiliations — Marseille ultras (banner, Vélodrome, March 2026)

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Walk the Vélodrome at your own pace, with no group to follow. Look first at the dressing rooms, the pitch edge and the trophy display for the 1993 Champions League win. Check the summer prices before you go.

    Source ↗

Video: The France They DON'T Show You (Marseille) · Malini Angelica

Compare the top three ↓

2AS Monaco

No. 2 — AS Monaco. On the lists of 5 of 9 AIs; median place there: 1. The AIs saw Monaco as the club most flattered by results: 14 points, far above what its chances were worth.

Boutique AS Monaco 2013
Supporterhéninois · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • Monaco's stadium has an Olympic diving pool and a 2,500-seat arena in the same complex, with three parking levels underneath. The first goal there, on 26 January 1985, was a penalty by Bernard Genghini.

    Source ↗
What it is
Monaco are unbeaten and third, with 14 points from six games.
Its edge
It has the biggest surplus of points over expected points of the three.
Who should know
Useful for fans who wonder if Monaco's start will last or is partly luck.
  • Points vs expected points14 pts vs 7.3–10.1 xPts
  • Founded1924
  • HeadquartersCommune of Monaco, Monaco

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • On xG-Edge’s table, Monaco had 14 points against 8.79 expected after 7 matches, a surplus of 5.21. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Before the season, beIN Sports called Monaco its "riskiest prediction" for the season's biggest disappointment. It noted a new coach and a seventh-place finish last year. The good start is early, and the xG gap suggests some luck.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Join the roughly one-hour behind-the-scenes tour of Stade Louis II. Look first at the changing rooms and the tunnel footballers use to reach the pitch. Tours run Monday to Friday, not on match days, so check the times before you go.

    Source ↗
Claude, Grok, MiMo, DeepSeek put it first. What they saw in it

  • Claude: 14 points from an xPts of 7.3 on statz and 10.1 on the other model: the biggest flattering gap, with a +5 goal difference against an xGD of -1.6.

  • Grok: 14 points from 6 games against roughly 8 xPts — the clearest overperformance across providers

  • MiMo: Top of Ligue 1 with 14 points from six games — and 10 goals scored from 7.19 xG, the biggest finishing overperformance in France.

  • DeepSeek: 13 points from 6.2 xPts, and a +5 goal difference from an xGD of -0.4 — the largest overperformance in the equal-games cut.

Video: Monaco's 2016/17 Tactics Explained · Tifo Football by The Athletic

Compare the top three ↓

3Le Havre

No. 3 — Le Havre. On the lists of 5 of 9 AIs; median place there: 3. The AIs saw Le Havre as the club most punished by results: only 2 points despite decent chances.

Le Havre
derivative work: Ignis Le_Havre_Vue_Plage_14_07_2005.jpg : Urban · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Paris au Havre - Dressé par R. Barbot ; Gravé par J. Jérôme - btv1b550108236 (1 of 5)
Barbot, R. (18..-19..?). Cartographe Jérôme, J. (18..-19..?). Graveur · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • Le Havre is often called France's oldest club, founded in 1872. Careful research calls that date more legend than record. A football section only opened in 1894.

    Source ↗
What it is
Le Havre are bottom of Ligue 1 with 2 points from six games.
Its edge
It has the biggest shortfall of points against expected points of the three.
Who should know
Useful for fans who wonder if the worst team is really the worst or just unlucky.
  • Points vs expected points2 pts vs 5.5–8.6 xPts
  • Founded1517
  • HeadquartersAgglomeration community of Le Havre

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • xG-Edge lists Le Havre on 2 points against 8.03 expected after 7 matches, a shortfall of 6.03. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Did you know

  • Le Havre's founders were British. The club's sky-blue and navy colours come from the Oxford and Cambridge universities. The fans' chant even borrows the tune of 'God Save the King'.

    Source ↗
History

  • After 14 years away, Le Havre returned to Ligue 1 in 2023 by winning the Ligue 2 title. The long wait ended with promotion under coach Luka Elsner. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Le Havre lost 1-3 at Auxerre on matchday 7. Their coach called the situation "préoccupante" (worrying), with Marseille on 25 October and PSG on 30 October next. Bad luck may ease, but the fixtures are hard.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Visit the Appartement Témoin Perret, a show flat at the Maison du Patrimoine, 181 rue de Paris. It is furnished in 1950s style. Book ahead, since visits are by reservation. Look first at the furniture and objects, then compare them with the concrete city outside.

    Source ↗

Video: French port of Le Havre celebrates 500 years of history · FRANCE 24 English

Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

MarseilleAS MonacoLe Havre
In the AIs' lists6 / 95 / 95 / 9
Points vs expected points6 pts vs 6.7–7.7 xPts14 pts vs 7.3–10.1 xPts2 pts vs 5.5–8.6 xPts
Founded060019241517
HeadquartersBouches-du-RhôneCommune of Monaco, MonacoAgglomeration community of Le Havre
Put first byGemini, KimiClaude, Grok, MiMo, DeepSeek—

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

More ratings

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

Monaco lead the points-per-game pace while ranking only 13th for xG per match (1.32). Finishing, not chance volume, is carrying them.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, Grok, MiMo, Kimi. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Le Havre are 6th in Ligue 1 for chance creation (1.63 xG a game), ahead of Lyon, Lille and Marseille, yet bottom with 4 goals and 2 points.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, Grok, MiMo, Kimi. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Marseille's 14th place looks roughly earned. Their points sit within 0.7 to 1.7 of expected, and their 1-point gap to Angers comes from three one-goal defeats.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, Grok, Kimi. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, MiMo, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Paris FC show no luck gap: 11 points against 11.1 expected, behind the best expected defence on statz (5.0 xGA in 6 games).

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, MiMo. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

The models agree on direction but not size. Monaco's surplus is +6.7 on statz and +3.9 on thefishy, and Le Havre's shortfall is -6.6 against -3.5. FBref could not be opened (403) for three of the AIs.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Kimi. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, MiMo, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

04How we counted

In plain words, no formulas.

1The question

Top 10 Ligue 1 clubs whose table position and underlying performance disagree most

2Why this topic

No single table compares the real standings with two different xG models, so readers can see which places are earned and which are luck, including whether Marseille is truly a 13th-place side.

3Where it applies

France, Ligue 1 2026-27, after the same number of rounds

4What we looked at

  • Gap between actual points and expected points (xPts)
  • Gap between actual goal difference and expected goal difference (xGD)
  • Agreement across two xG providers; clubs where the providers disagree are marked as uncertain rather than ranked high
  • Only clubs that have played the same number of games are compared
  • statz.ai — xG for and against, plus expected points from a Poisson model on Sportmonks shot data (updated 18 Oct 2026)
  • thefishy.co.uk — A second xPts model with per-game xG and xGA; provider not named. Angers and Marseille appear to include today's game.
  • Understat — xG, xGA and expected points (one AI read values here, two found the table empty)
  • OddAlerts — xG, xGA, xPts and goals minus xG for each club

5Who ranked

The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

6How the places were set

The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.

05Each AI's own list

🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Monaco (AS Monaco)

    14 points from an xPts of 7.3 on statz and 10.1 on the other model: the biggest flattering gap, with a +5 goal difference against an xGD of -1.6.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Lille (LOSC)

    Unbeaten-ish at 14 points from 7 on 9.2 xG created: results flatter them by 2.7–4.8 points.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Rennes (Stade Rennais)

    13 points against about 8.3 expected; the two models agree to within 0.2 on how lucky they have been.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Le Havre (Le Havre AC)

    2 points where the models expect 5.5–8.6: the club most punished by results, though the size of the gap differs.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Troyes

    A -11 goal difference against an xGD of about -2: shots and chances say they are not nearly that bad.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Brest (Stade Brestois 29)

    Second on statz expected points (11.7) but 8th–9th with 9: both models say they deserve more.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Le Mans (FC Le Mans)

    The promoted side is on 6 points with an xPts of 8.2–8.4, in both tables.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Auxerre (AJ Auxerre)

    Goal difference -8 against about -4: a leaky defence that the models say is a bit unlucky.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Toulouse (Toulouse FC)

    A steady 1.5-point shortfall in both models: 9 points against about 10.5 expected.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Lyon (Olympique Lyonnais)

    A +7 goal difference, best in the league, against an xGD of +4.2: the points gap is small, the goal gap is not.

    Source ↗

What Claude noticed

Monaco are top-3 on 14 points with only 7.2 xG created, the lowest in the table bar Lorient and Nice.

Source ↗

Paris FC have the best defence on statz (5.0 xGA in 6 games), and their actual and expected points agree (11 vs 11.1): a rare club with no luck gap.

Source ↗

Troyes' -11 goal difference is the worst in the league, but statz has them creating about as much as they concede, so the table likely exaggerates them.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    AS Monaco

    14 points from 6 games against roughly 8 xPts — the clearest overperformance across providers

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    LOSC Lille

    14 points while underlying models suggest closer to 10 xPts

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Le Havre AC

    Only 2 points from performances worth roughly 5–8.6 xPts — the biggest underperformance

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Stade Brestois 29

    9 points while models give them around 13 xPts

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Stade Rennais

    13 points versus roughly 10 xPts

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Troyes

    Low points but underperforming their xG significantly

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Toulouse FC

    9 points with models indicating closer to 13 xPts

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    RC Strasbourg

    Overperforming goals relative to xG while points remain modest

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Paris Saint-Germain

    Results roughly match high underlying numbers (14 pts vs ~14 xPts)

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Olympique de Marseille

    6 points close to their ~6.7 xPts despite defensive xGA overperformance

    Source ↗

What Grok noticed

Monaco’s early lead is the largest points-vs-xPts gap in the league so far.

Source ↗

Le Havre are widely flagged as the unluckiest side, with multiple models showing large xPts shortfalls.

Source ↗

Providers broadly agree on the direction of over/underperformance for the top and bottom clubs even when exact xPts numbers differ.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Olympique de Marseille

    Punished by a severe 6.0-point xPts deficit, sitting 13th with 6 points despite underlying chance creation worthy of 3rd place (~12.0 xPts across both models).

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Stade Brestois 29

    Flattered by a +4.8 point surplus in 6th place (13 pts), outperforming an 8.2 xPts projection through exceptional goalkeeping and unsustainable box efficiency.

  3. 3
    RC Lens

    Stuck in 10th with 9 points while controlling matches to the tune of 13.3 xPts and a +5.0 xGD, derailed by wastefulness in front of goal.

  4. 4
    Paris Saint-Germain

    Leading the league with 19 points from 7 matches, running 3.3 points ahead of an already formidable 15.7 xPts due to world-class individual finishing.

  5. 5
    Angers SCO

    Holding 12th place with 7 points despite a brutal -7 goal difference and generating only 5.2 xPts, leaving them vulnerable to regression.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Stade Rennais FC

    Shedding nearly 4 expected points (8 actual vs 11.7 xPts), creating high-value chances that have yielded only 8 goals from 11.2 xG.

  7. 7
    OGC Nice

    Riding defensive overperformance into 4th (14 pts) despite both models projecting them for 10.6 xPts, conceding 4 goals from 7.5 xGA.

  8. 8
    RC Strasbourg Alsace

    Conceding 12 actual goals from just 8.9 xGA, turning a mid-table expected profile (10.0 xPts) into a precarious 15th-place standing.

  9. 9
    AS Monaco

    Collecting 16 points in 2nd place against an expected 13.1 xPts, driven by a blistering +3.6 goal conversion overperformance.

  10. 10
    Toulouse FC

    Trapped in the relegation play-off zone (17th, 5 pts) despite underlying numbers (8.6 xPts) arguing they belong comfortably in 11th.

What Gemini noticed

Olympique de Marseille represents the single largest discrepancy in French football: their xPts tally of ~12.0 projects a top-three squad, yet poor finishing and goalkeeping variance leave them stranded in 13th.

Source ↗

Top-end clubs like PSG and Monaco regularly outscore their xG by 15% to 25% over a season because elite ball-strikers consistently outperform statistical average finishing curves.

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🇨🇳 MiMo10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by MiMo alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    ASMonaco

    Top of Ligue 1 with 14 points from six games — and 10 goals scored from 7.19 xG, the biggest finishing overperformance in France.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    ParisSaint-Germain

    The league's biggest attack (17.34 xG) and its top expected-points total (12.47) — and only third in the real table.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    LeHavre AC

    Four goals from 9.94 xG — 5.9 goals of expectation left unspent, the worst in France — and last with two points.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    StadeRennais FC

    13 points from six games on a +2 goal difference — no club in Ligue 1 collects more points per goal of difference.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Olympiquede Marseille

    Nine goals scored, eight conceded — a positive goal difference — and 14th with six points, the worst return in France for its goal difference.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    OlympiqueLyonnais

    The best goal difference in Ligue 1 — +7 from six games — and only 11 points to show for it.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    FCLorient

    Six goals in six games and eight points anyway — Lorient sit 10th while scoring at a rate bettered by almost everyone.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    OGCNice

    Five goals in six games — the second-weakest attack in France — and Nice still sit above Strasbourg, Marseille and Angers.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    ParisFC

    OddAlerts call Paris FC the best defence in Ligue 1 (4.98 xGA); FootyStats hand that title to PSG — so sixth place cannot be scored either way.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    StadeBrestois 29

    13 goals scored — second-most in the division — and only nine points from seven games.

    Source ↗

What MiMo noticed

PSGtop Ligue 1 on both expected goals (17.34, 2.48 per game) and expected points (12.47, 2.08 per game) yet sat third before Sunday — ESPN's form analysis describes their results as pretty unfortunate given the underlying xG numbers.

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Monaco lead the real table with 14 points from six unbeaten games while scoring 10 goals from 7.19 xG (+2.8) — the largest finishing overperformance in France, and the reason xgstat could write that Monaco top the real table but PSG lead on expected points.

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LeHavre are bottom on 2 points with the worst finishing gap in the league — 4 goals from 9.94 xG (−5.9) — so one model expects regression to lift them even though the table says last.

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Themismatches outside the xG tables are just as large: Rennes bank 13 points from a +2 goal difference while Marseille carry a positive goal difference (+1) and sit 14th — a gap of five and six places respectively between goal-difference rank and points rank.

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🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Olympique de Marseille (OM)

    Six games, a +1 goal difference and 14th place — three of OM's four defeats came by a single goal.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Le Havre AC (HAC)

    Bottom of France with the 6th-best chance creation: 1.63 xG a game, four goals.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    ESTAC Troyes

    17th with mid-table attacking numbers — 1.51 xG per game, five goals, one win.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    OGC Nice

    11th on the league's third-worst scoring rate — five goals from 1.36 xG a game.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    AS Monaco

    Unbeaten and third on the 13th-best attack by xG — 10 goals from 1.32 expected per game.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)

    Top by xG (2.40 per game, clear of Rennes' 1.87) but only three points clear of fourth and beaten at home by Monaco.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    RC Strasbourg Alsace

    Twelve goals from the 14th-best xG attack — and a three-game losing streak anyway.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    RC Lens

    Fourteen goals from 11.6 expected — clinical overperformance, yet 7th and a sacked coach.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Le Mans FC

    Promoted and 15th — but already 10 goals from the league's second-lowest xG (1.20 a game).

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    FC Lorient

    Tenth with the worst attacking xG in Ligue 1 (1.13 a game) and a goal difference of zero.

    Source ↗

What Kimi noticed

Le Havre are the statistical heartbreak of the season so far: 1.63 xGF per game is 6th-best in Ligue 1 — ahead of Lyon, Lille and Marseille — yet they have scored 4 goals and sit bottom with 2 points.

Source ↗

PSG's 2.40 xGF per match is 0.53 clear of second-placed Rennes (1.87) — a bigger gap than between 2nd and 7th — but PSG have scored 14 (about 2.8 below expectation) and lost at home to Monaco.

Source ↗

Marseille are the anti-Monaco: a +1 goal difference after six games would normally mean a top-eight start, but OM are 14th because three of their four defeats came by a single goal (2-3 v Paris FC, 1-2 v PSG, 0-1 at Rennes).

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Monaco are unbeaten (4W 2D, 3rd) despite the 13th-ranked attack by xG (1.32 per game) — the clearest case of finishing, not chance volume, carrying results.

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🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    AS Monaco (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    13 points from 6.2 xPts, and a +5 goal difference from an xGD of -0.4 — the largest overperformance in the equal-games cut.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    RC Strasbourg Alsace (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Seven points from 4.4 xPts, with 10 goals from 6.3 xG — the most clinical finish in the table.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Eight goals from 11.3 xG and eight points from 9.9 xPts: the biggest negative xG gap belongs to the champions.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Toulouse FC (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Five points from 8.9 xPts and seven goals from 9.4 xG — the clearest case of results punishing performance.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Lille OSC (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Ten points from 6.8 xPts and four goals more than xG — quietly the second-biggest overperformance.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    RC Lens (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Seven points from 9.0 xPts despite creating 12.1 xG; the table undersells the chance volume.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Five points from 9.0 xPts with a positive xGD but a negative actual goal difference.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Olympique de Marseille (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Three points from 7.8 xPts is the biggest xPts gap in the cut, but the xGD gap is only +0.5 — hence uncertain.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Le Havre AC (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Two points from 6.7 xPts; the xG numbers are poor, but the points are even poorer.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    ES Troyes AC (Ligue 1 2026-27)

    Four points from 5.6 xPts and a -7 goal difference from -3.3 xGD — punished at both ends.

    Source ↗

What DeepSeek noticed

Strasbourg scored 10 goals from 6.3 xG and took 7 points from 4.4 xPts; that is the biggest goals-minus-xG overperformance in the table, even if Monaco's points gap is larger.

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PSG created 11.3 xG but scored 8, the largest negative goals-minus-xG gap (-3.3); their eight points from 9.9 xPts also makes them the biggest underperformer among the leading clubs.

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Toulouse had 9.4 xG but scored 7 and took 5 points from 8.9 xPts — the clearest 'results punish performance' case in the equal-games cut.

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Monaco's 13 points from 6.2 xPts is the largest overperformance, but the xG models are not equally extreme: MatchPulse has Monaco at -0.4 xGD, while StatMuse has them around level.

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