The widest gaps do not follow country lines. On chips (33 vs 58) and the Nasdaq-100 (32 vs 52), both extremes are Chinese models, DeepSeek and Wenxin.
Back to AI Council · Markets: Markets today, 2026-11-12: chip stocks (SOX) +5.7%, fear index (VIX) +4.7%, Nasdaq-100 +2.3% All Markets ratings →
Poly Rating · from AI Council · Markets
AI stock market prediction today: Nov 12, 2026 splits
On the VIX the AI Council splits 4 up, 3 down, and both sides hold US and Chinese models, so the split follows how each model reasons, not where it was built.
- No. 1: VIX fear index
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
VIX fear index
The only real two-sided split: 4 up, 3 down, with US and Chinese models on both sides. It is a split by reasoning. Kimi's call is disputed (flat at 52, or up).
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 1 · Meta: 1 · Grok: 1 · Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 1 · Wenxin: 3 · Qwen: 1
What each AI noted 8
- Claudeplace 1
Four models bet up, three bet down and one is flat. It is the only market where both sides are large, and each US and Chinese group splits inside itself.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 1
The prompt’s +4.7% VIX move sits against a Nov. 11 close of 17.49 and a front VIX future settlement of 18.05: a risk repricing, but still an upward-sloping curve.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 1
Three models, three stories, one fear gauge - and the curve flipped to contango while spot VIX jumped intraday.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
Splits 4 models up vs 3 down, with US and Chinese models on both sides and reasons clashing on inflation vs geopolitics
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 1
The only perfectly split market (50/50) and the page's official 'dispute of the day': Wenxin 35% vs MiMo 58% on the day, and on the week the split flips to country lines — US models 25% up vs Chinese models 50% up — while spot VIX rises 4.5% against the 'fear is fading' camp.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 1
A 23-point gap between Wenxin's 35% and MiMo's 58%, with four models betting VIX up and three down — a reasoning split that cuts across the US and China seats.
- Wenxinplace 3
Qwen says fear fades, ChatGPT says inflation worry lingers, Kimi says a priced hike still shocks
- Qwenplace 1
Qwen and Kimi split from the US models over whether priced-in inflation fears or easing geopolitics drive the +4.7% jump.
Source ↗
8 AIs put it here - 2
US 10-year Treasury yield
Largest US-vs-China gap of the day, but only 56% vs 53%. Most models side with hike pricing at about 5%. Sources disagree on whether anyone bets on a fall.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 7 · Meta: 4 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 3 · Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: 4 · Wenxin: 4 · Qwen: 7
What each AI noted 8
- Claudeplace 7
Five lean up and none lean down, which matches hike pricing. Kimi, Claude and ERNIE sit out.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 4
Above 5% after hot CPI, with a 9% tail for a 50bp hike doing all the arguing.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
West ~44% vs East ~57% chance of rise; most models see higher yields while Wenxin alone bets a fall on the week
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
Six of 10 models resist the bond selloff, arguing that CME FedWatch pricing for monetary tightening overstates structural growth resilience.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 3
The only other 50/50 market and the biggest East–West gap of the day (West 56% vs East 53%): the yield sat at 4.97% with FedWatch pricing a 92.4% December hike, yet half the council won't follow the futures.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 4
West 56% and East 53% are only three points apart, but Wenxin alone bets yields fall while six others bet rises — a lone-dissent split, not a country split.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 4
US models lean yield down on dovish Fed; Chinese models split on growth hopes — data show 4.30% today
- Qwenplace 7
The yield touches 4.75% triggering 'bad memories' for investors, splitting AI forecasts on whether this caps equity upside or confirms a soft landing.
Source ↗
8 AIs put it here - 3
Nasdaq-100
A 20-point gap between two Chinese models (DeepSeek 32%, Wenxin 52%). The +2.3% was Nov 11's close; Nov 12 futures fell about 0.9–1.2%, so the bears had a point.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 8 · Meta: 3 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 6 · Kimi: 4 · DeepSeek: 3 · Wenxin: 2 · Qwen: 4
What each AI noted 8
- Claudeplace 8
Six lean down on a day it is up 2.3%. Claude and ERNIE are the only flat calls, and nobody leans up.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 3
Up in the prior-day snapshot, down almost 1% in futures the next morning - same index, opposite story.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 4
Yesterday +2.3% led by chips; today models lean trim/hold with range of 36-50% rise probabilities
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
Despite today's +2.3% surge, four models defy positive options gamma, citing multiple compression from terminal discount rate repricing.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 4
A 20-point gap between DeepSeek (32%) and Wenxin (52%) — again two Chinese models — while 60% of the council sits bearish (avg 40%) on a day Nasdaq-100 futures rose ~2.3% on the CoreWeave relief rally.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 3
DeepSeek 32% vs Wenxin 52%: a 20-point gap, again inside the China seats, as Nvidia's after-hours slide pulls index futures lower.
- Wenxinplace 2
Chip rally +5.7% on SOX forces even the bearish DeepSeek to soften — but reasoning still diverges
- Qwenplace 4
US models ride the +2.28% tech wave, but Chinese models warn the 10-year yield at 4.75% will compress valuations by quarter-end.
Source ↗
8 AIs put it here - 4
WTI crude oil
Supply against geopolitics: Qwen cites OPEC+ output up 2.04 mb/d against the Hormuz risk premium. No model bets on higher oil.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 10 · Meta: 6 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 4 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: 9 · Wenxin: 5 · Qwen: 8
What each AI noted 8
- Claudeplace 10
Seven of eight lean down on gold, WTI and Brent. ERNIE is the only model flat on all three.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 6
Easing Middle East fears cut the risk premium, but OPEC+ output and US inventories cut harder.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
Consensus leans down or hold; Qwen lone seller; reasons diverge on geopolitics vs demand
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
A clean 5-5 split hinges on whether Middle East diplomatic de-escalation outweighs OPEC+ supply discipline and SPR replenishment targets.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 6
Qwen filed a fact against the majority on its own market: OPEC+ output surged 2.04 mb/d in October, 'completely offsetting geopolitical risk premiums' — supply arithmetic vs the Hormuz premium, inside one council.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 9
No model bets on higher WTI — a near-consensus short — even with Qwen as the lone seller, so the split is low despite the OPEC+ headline.
- Wenxinplace 5
Geopolitics versus demand: US bots up on supply cuts, Chinese bots down on China slowdown
- Qwenplace 8
Oil trades near $86.50 as models debate whether OPEC+ discipline or slowing Asian demand will dictate the winter price floor.
Source ↗
8 AIs put it here - 5
Gold price
Models barely disagree (seven of eight lean down). The bigger gap is with the betting crowd: 30.9 points, the widest AI-vs-crowd gap of the day. Gold sits below $4,000.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: see list · Meta: 8 · Grok: 9 · Gemini: 7 · Kimi: 7 · DeepSeek: 8 · Wenxin: 6 · Qwen: 6
What each AI noted 8
- Claude
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - Metaplace 8
Third straight day below $4,000 - the safe haven losing to a stronger dollar and 5% yields.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 9
Hold bias; pressure from higher yields and hike odds after hot CPI
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 7
Four models reject gold's traditional negative beta to rising real yields, relying instead on non-Western sovereign central bank reserve diversification.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 7
The widest money-disagreement of the day is not between models but between the council and the crowd: the crowd prices gold 'up' 30.9 points cheaper than the AIs — the split is over whether hot CPI kills the haven bid.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 8
Gold below $4,000 and the dollar at 102.91 keep the bears in charge, but the AI Council split is thinner than in VIX or chips.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 6
A perfect 5-vs-5 split: US models hedge Fed-cut hopes, China models hedge de-dollarisation bets
- Qwenplace 6
Safe-haven bids push gold to test $3,900, dividing models on whether central bank buying or retail fear is the primary catalyst.
Source ↗
8 AIs put it here - 6
S&P 500
A lopsided split: six lean down, Claude is flat and ERNIE alone leans up at 55. The average is 44% after a +1.31% close, with futures down 0.4% on Nov 12.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 3 · Meta: 10 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 9 · Kimi: 8 · DeepSeek: 10 · Wenxin: 1 · Qwen: 10
What each AI noted 8
- Claudeplace 3
Six models lean down against Fed-hike pricing, Claude is flat, and ERNIE alone leans up at 55.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 10
Up 1.3% to 7,619 on chips, down 0.6% in futures on Nvidia - breadth hiding a single-stock split.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
Almost all hold; average chance of rise ~44-45% with tight range despite yesterday's +1.3%
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 9
A moderate 7-to-3 bull consensus conceals an internal dispute over whether consumer discretionary balance sheets can absorb sticky non-housing services inflation.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 8
Eight of ten models sit below a 50% chance of rising (avg 44%) while futures are green and the leaderboard's leader, ChatGPT, still calls 'hold' at 46% — a uniform skepticism rather than a quarrel.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 10
Eight of ten simply hold and Meta AI is alone in trimming — the lowest-stakes equity disagreement, even with futures down 0.4% and CPI running hot.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 1
Nine of ten models call up — but four US bots invoke a Fed pivot story that futures don't fully price
- Qwenplace 10
The broad market rose 1.31%, but the AI council is evenly split on whether tech-heavy gains mask underlying weakness in consumer staples.
Source ↗
8 AIs put it here - 7
Chip stocks (SOX)
Widest gap of the day, DeepSeek 33% vs Wenxin 58%, and both are Chinese models. Seven of eight models lean down after a +5.66% day.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 2 · Meta: 2 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 2 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 2 · Qwen: 2
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 2
Seven of eight models lean down on a day the index is reported up 5.7%. Only ERNIE leans up, at 58.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 2
SOX jumped 5.7% while its biggest star fell 10% - the rally happened without Nvidia.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
Yesterday +5.7% on CoreWeave rebound but Nvidia board rumors and probe weigh; models split on whether AI spending sustains
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Even with chips rallying +5.7% today, 5 of 10 models take the short side, divided by supply-chain sovereignty rather than pure earnings multiples.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 2
The widest pairwise spread of the day (25 points) runs INSIDE the Chinese bench — DeepSeek 33% vs Wenxin 58% — while 80% of the council leans bearish (avg 40%) into what MarketWatch calls the chip index's best four-day stretch since March 2020.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 2
A 25-point gap — DeepSeek 33% vs Wenxin 58% — makes chips the widest two-model disagreement, and both extremes sit inside the China seats.
- Qwenplace 2
US models see a tech rebound on AI capex while Chinese models bet against the +5.7% rally citing supply chain bottlenecks.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 8
Bitcoin price
Seven of eight lean down, with ERNIE the lone bull at 53. Bitcoin is the one market where the crowd is more bullish than the AIs (+5.5 points), as it slips to about $73,500.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 4 · Meta: 5 · Grok: 10 · Kimi: 10 · DeepSeek: 6 · Wenxin: 8 · Qwen: 3
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 4
Seven models lean down. ERNIE is again the lone bull at 53, despite the hike pricing.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 5
Below $73,000 while the hike is called already priced in - priced in, but still falling.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 10
Hold/trim; pressure from higher-rate expectations; Meta AI alone trimming
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 10
The only market where the sign of the crowd gap flips: the crowd is 5.5 points PRICIER than the AIs — prediction-market money is more bullish on Bitcoin than the models, who cite a fourth straight week of ETF outflows.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 6
Meta AI alone trims and Wenxin alone buys dips — a cross-country split while the dollar sits at a 1½-year high and December hike odds are fully priced.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 8
Nine call higher on ETF inflows narrative; only Baichuan cites Chinese regulatory headwinds
- Qwenplace 3
The AI council splits 5-5 on whether the $1.3 billion ETF outflow is a bull market reset or the start of a deeper crypto winter.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 9
Brent crude oil
The only market where Chinese models are more bullish (43%) than US models (40%). Claude's sealed 'Hormuz stays shut' fact cuts against the bearish majority.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Wenxin, Qwen.In their lists: Claude: see list · Meta: 7 · Grok: 6 · Gemini: 5 · Kimi: 5 · DeepSeek: 5
What each AI noted 6
- Claude
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - Metaplace 7
Same barrel, opposite headlines: down 1.58% to $91.29 in one wire, up about 1% to $93.74 in another.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 6
Similar to WTI: broad agreement against higher prices, Qwen outlier seller
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 5
Five models bet against European refinery margin contraction, creating an ideological split over Asian import run-rates versus transatlantic transit costs.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 5
The one market where the East is MORE bullish than the West (43% vs 40%) — and Claude filed a sealed fact against its own bearish majority: 'Hormuz stays shut', on a morning headlines said oil fell over 1% on peace hopes.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 5
West 40% and East 43% are nearly identical, and Qwen is the lone seller across Brent, WTI and copper — the split is by reasoning, not by country.
6 AIs put it here - 10
Copper price
A mild lean (six down, two flat), yet ChatGPT's own sealed fact (Shanghai stocks −24% in a week) argues against its side. Rewording the question moves the answer 37% to 50%.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok.In their lists: Claude: 9 · Gemini: 10 · Kimi: 9 · DeepSeek: 7 · Wenxin: 9 · Qwen: 9
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 9
Six lean down and two sit flat, so copper is a mild lean rather than a split.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
Three models dispute copper's expansionary rally, weighting German industrial order contraction over announced Chinese grid investments.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 9
ChatGPT's sealed fact — Shanghai exchange copper stocks fell 24% in a week — argues against its own side's demand gloom, and the answer itself is unstable: re-asked with different wording, copper moves 6.5 points (37% to 50%).
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 7
ChatGPT's court fact says Shanghai inventories fell 24% in the week to November 6, yet Qwen is the lone seller — a reasoning split over China demand.
- Wenxinplace 9
US models up on AI-data-center demand; Chinese models down on property slowdown — split 6-4
- Qwenplace 9
Copper soars to records above $6.24/lb, splitting the council between green-energy electrification bulls and manufacturing bears.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
The models' moves of +5.7% for SOX and +2.3% for the Nasdaq-100 were Nov 11 closes. On Nov 12 morning, Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.86% after Nvidia's slide, so the bearish calls were not simply against the tape.
October CPI came in hot (+0.4% headline, +0.3% core, both above forecast) but has no official 12-month rate. That backs ChatGPT's 'inflation worry hasn't cleared' more than Qwen's 'fear is fading'.
December hike odds depend on the snapshot: 88.4%/11.6% (Nov 11), 91%/9% (Nov 12 FedWatch), 86% on Polymarket, and about 77–79% before CPI. Each figure measures a different time or instrument.
The VIX futures curve stayed in contango (VIX/VIX3M 0.909 on Nov 11), so traders priced higher volatility later even as spot VIX fell 10.1% that day.
03Questions people ask
Can AI predict the stock market?
Not proven yet. On 86 comparable questions the AI Council was right 74.4% of the time against the prediction-market crowd's 77.9%. The project says about 350 questions are needed before any verdict.
What is the AI stock market prediction today?
On Nov 12, 2026, seven of eight answering models lean down on chips and Bitcoin, six lean down on the S&P 500, five lean up on the 10-year yield, and the VIX splits 4 up, 3 down.
Source ↗Why do sources give different Fed hike odds?
They are taken at different times or from different instruments: FedWatch showed 91% for 25 bp on Nov 12, Polymarket 86%, and reporting before the CPI release about 77–79%.
Source ↗04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Markets Where the AI Council Splits Most, and Whether It Splits by Country or by Reasoning
2Why this topic
No single table shows where ten AIs disagree with each other and with market pricing, or whether those splits follow where a model comes from or how it reasons.
3Where it applies
Global, the 12 markets the AI Council forecasts each day
4What we looked at
- How many of the 10 models bet against the direction implied by futures and options pricing
- How evenly the split falls inside the five US models and inside the five Chinese models, compared with between the two groups
- How far each side's stated reason is from what the public data show (inflation figures, Fed pricing, oil and geopolitics)
- AI Council daily forecasts (Poly Helper Trends) — Each model's chance of a rise, action and target for 12 markets, sealed before the New York open; widest model-to-model gaps and US-vs-China group ave
- CME FedWatch (Nov 12 snapshot via Investopedia) — Futures-implied odds for the December FOMC: 91% for a 25 bp hike, 9% for 50 bp
- Polymarket December Fed market (shown on the Council page) — Crowd odds: 25 bp hike 86%, 50+ bp 10%, no change 4%
- Cboe VIX futures — The market's priced path of expected S&P 500 volatility (VIX futures curve)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI, October 2026 — Headline +0.4% and core +0.3% month on month; no 12-month rate because October 2025 prices were not collected
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1VIX (fear index), 12 Nov 2026
Four models bet up, three bet down and one is flat. It is the only market where both sides are large, and each US and Chinese group splits inside itself.
Source ↗ - 2Chip stocks / semiconductor index (SOX)
Seven of eight models lean down on a day the index is reported up 5.7%. Only ERNIE leans up, at 58.
Source ↗ - 3S&P 500
Six models lean down against Fed-hike pricing, Claude is flat, and ERNIE alone leans up at 55.
Source ↗ - 4Bitcoin
Seven models lean down. ERNIE is again the lone bull at 53, despite the hike pricing.
Source ↗ - 5Dow Jones
The Dow is the only index with some up calls from US and Chinese models alike (Grok and Qwen at 53 and 55). Most models sit at about 50.
Source ↗ - 6US dollar index
Three models lean up (Grok, Meta, Qwen), five sit at about 50, and none lean down.
Source ↗ - 7US 10-year Treasury yield
Five lean up and none lean down, which matches hike pricing. Kimi, Claude and ERNIE sit out.
Source ↗ - 8Nasdaq-100
Six lean down on a day it is up 2.3%. Claude and ERNIE are the only flat calls, and nobody leans up.
Source ↗ - 9Copper
Six lean down and two sit flat, so copper is a mild lean rather than a split.
Source ↗ - 10Gold and oil (WTI and Brent)
Seven of eight lean down on gold, WTI and Brent. ERNIE is the only model flat on all three.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
The models agree more than the headline suggests. On 9 of the 12 markets, seven or more of the eight models lean the same way or sit flat. Only the VIX has a real two-sided fight.
October CPI was hotter than consensus: headline +0.4% against +0.3% expected, and core +0.3% against +0.2%. BLS cannot publish a 12-month rate because October 2025 prices were not collected during the shutdown. Gasoline is the one exception, up 37.4% on the year.
The Fed raised rates in September to 3.75-4.00% and held on 28 Oct by a 10-2 vote, with the two dissenters wanting a hike. A December hike is now the base case, so the question is whether a priced-in hike can still shock. That is Kimi's point.
Can AI predict the stock market? Today's calls lean down on the Nasdaq-100 and chips while the tape shows them up, so on this one day the models are leaning against the move.
🇺🇸 ChatGPT1 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) — Nov. 12, 2026, provisional
The prompt’s +4.7% VIX move sits against a Nov. 11 close of 17.49 and a front VIX future settlement of 18.05: a risk repricing, but still an upward-sloping curve.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
The latest retrievable Council issue is dated Nov. 11. Its VIX dispute page says the daily majority leaned toward a fall, while the prompt describes a Nov. 12 rise; that is not enough to score a Nov. 12 model split or identify which models were on each side.
October’s headline CPI was +0.4% month over month, but core was +0.3%; headline also slowed from September’s +0.6%. That supports a mixed inflation reading rather than a simple claim that all price pressure accelerated.
The Nov. 11 VIX curve remained in contango: the front future settled at 18.0519 and the December contract at 18.4042. Futures therefore priced higher volatility later even as spot VIX had fallen that day.
🇺🇸 Meta10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Meta alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1VIX - Cboe Volatility Index 2026
Three models, three stories, one fear gauge - and the curve flipped to contango while spot VIX jumped intraday.
Source ↗ - 2Chips - PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) 2026
SOX jumped 5.7% while its biggest star fell 10% - the rally happened without Nvidia.
Source ↗ - 3Nasdaq-100 2026
Up in the prior-day snapshot, down almost 1% in futures the next morning - same index, opposite story.
Source ↗ - 4US 10-Year Treasury Yield 2026
Above 5% after hot CPI, with a 9% tail for a 50bp hike doing all the arguing.
Source ↗ - 5Bitcoin 2026
Below $73,000 while the hike is called already priced in - priced in, but still falling.
Source ↗ - 6WTI Crude Oil 2026
Easing Middle East fears cut the risk premium, but OPEC+ output and US inventories cut harder.
Source ↗ - 7Brent Crude Oil 2026
Same barrel, opposite headlines: down 1.58% to $91.29 in one wire, up about 1% to $93.74 in another.
Source ↗ - 8Gold 2026
Third straight day below $4,000 - the safe haven losing to a stronger dollar and 5% yields.
Source ↗ - 9US Dollar Index 2026
19-month high at about 103, with USD/JPY parked at 159.9 - one tick from Japan's intervention line.
Source ↗ - 10S&P 500 2026
Up 1.3% to 7,619 on chips, down 0.6% in futures on Nvidia - breadth hiding a single-stock split.
Source ↗
What Meta noticed
Chips rallied without their star: SOX +5.66% while Nvidia fell 10% to $156 - breadth, not leadership, drove the prior day.
VIX curve flipped to contango at 0.909 on Nov 11 after backwardation earlier in the month - fear fading on paper while spot VIX jumped intraday.
FedWatch itself splits: 91% for 25bp and 9% for 50bp in one Nov 12 snapshot, 100% for any hike in another - priced in depends on which number you read.
Gold lost $4,000 for a third day even as Middle East fears eased - the metal fell on yields and the dollar, not on geopolitics.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Fear index (VIX) 2026-11-12
Splits 4 models up vs 3 down, with US and Chinese models on both sides and reasons clashing on inflation vs geopolitics
Source ↗ - 2US 10-year yield 2026-11-12
West ~44% vs East ~57% chance of rise; most models see higher yields while Wenxin alone bets a fall on the week
Source ↗ - 3Chip index (SOX) 2026-11-12
Yesterday +5.7% on CoreWeave rebound but Nvidia board rumors and probe weigh; models split on whether AI spending sustains
Source ↗ - 4Nasdaq-100 2026-11-12
Yesterday +2.3% led by chips; today models lean trim/hold with range of 36-50% rise probabilities
Source ↗ - 5WTI crude oil 2026-11-12
Consensus leans down or hold; Qwen lone seller; reasons diverge on geopolitics vs demand
Source ↗ - 6Brent crude oil 2026-11-12
Similar to WTI: broad agreement against higher prices, Qwen outlier seller
Source ↗ - 7S&P 500 2026-11-12
Almost all hold; average chance of rise ~44-45% with tight range despite yesterday's +1.3%
Source ↗ - 8Dollar index 2026-11-12
Most hold; modest West/East gap around 50-55%
Source ↗ - 9Gold 2026-11-12
Hold bias; pressure from higher yields and hike odds after hot CPI
Source ↗ - 10Bitcoin 2026-11-12
Hold/trim; pressure from higher-rate expectations; Meta AI alone trimming
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
VIX is the day's clearest split: four models (including US ChatGPT and Chinese Kimi/DeepSeek) bet a rise while three (US Claude and Chinese Qwen/Wenxin) bet a fall, showing reasoning differences more than pure country blocs.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Cboe Volatility Index (VIX 2026)
A perfect 5-to-5 deadlock splits not by hemisphere but by risk premise: Chinese models like Qwen price easing geopolitical friction while US models and Kimi brace for an unpriced rate surprise as spot jumps +4.7%.
Source ↗ - 2PHLX Semiconductor Sector (SOX Chip Stocks 2026)
Even with chips rallying +5.7% today, 5 of 10 models take the short side, divided by supply-chain sovereignty rather than pure earnings multiples.
Source ↗ - 3U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX 2026)
Six of 10 models resist the bond selloff, arguing that CME FedWatch pricing for monetary tightening overstates structural growth resilience.
Source ↗ - 4WTI Crude Oil (CL Futures 2026)
A clean 5-5 split hinges on whether Middle East diplomatic de-escalation outweighs OPEC+ supply discipline and SPR replenishment targets.
Source ↗ - 5Brent Crude Oil (BZ 2026)
Five models bet against European refinery margin contraction, creating an ideological split over Asian import run-rates versus transatlantic transit costs.
Source ↗ - 6Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX 2026)
Despite today's +2.3% surge, four models defy positive options gamma, citing multiple compression from terminal discount rate repricing.
Source ↗ - 7Gold Spot / COMEX Futures (XAU/USD 2026)
Four models reject gold's traditional negative beta to rising real yields, relying instead on non-Western sovereign central bank reserve diversification.
Source ↗ - 8U.S. Dollar Index (DXY 2026)
Four models forecast dollar weakness despite hawkish Fed swaps, pointing to twin-deficit expansion and bilateral trade de-dollarization.
Source ↗ - 9S&P 500 Index (SPX 2026)
A moderate 7-to-3 bull consensus conceals an internal dispute over whether consumer discretionary balance sheets can absorb sticky non-housing services inflation.
Source ↗ - 10COMEX Copper (HG 2026)
Three models dispute copper's expansionary rally, weighting German industrial order contraction over announced Chinese grid investments.
Source ↗
What Gemini noticed
Chinese models (such as Qwen and Kimi) exhibit significantly stronger consensus on tangible hard assets (Gold and Copper), overweighting physical de-dollarization and infrastructure electrification relative to US peers who focus heavily on Fed terminal rates.
Today's simultaneous jump in chip equities (+5.7%) and volatility (+4.7%) triggered hedging anomalies across all 10 models, proving that AI consensus fractures fastest during volatility-skew expansions.
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1VIX (fear index)
The only perfectly split market (50/50) and the page's official 'dispute of the day': Wenxin 35% vs MiMo 58% on the day, and on the week the split flips to country lines — US models 25% up vs Chinese models 50% up — while spot VIX rises 4.5% against the 'fear is fading' camp.
Source ↗ - 2PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX)
The widest pairwise spread of the day (25 points) runs INSIDE the Chinese bench — DeepSeek 33% vs Wenxin 58% — while 80% of the council leans bearish (avg 40%) into what MarketWatch calls the chip index's best four-day stretch since March 2020.
Source ↗ - 3US 10-year Treasury yield
The only other 50/50 market and the biggest East–West gap of the day (West 56% vs East 53%): the yield sat at 4.97% with FedWatch pricing a 92.4% December hike, yet half the council won't follow the futures.
Source ↗ - 4Nasdaq-100
A 20-point gap between DeepSeek (32%) and Wenxin (52%) — again two Chinese models — while 60% of the council sits bearish (avg 40%) on a day Nasdaq-100 futures rose ~2.3% on the CoreWeave relief rally.
Source ↗ - 5Brent crude oil
The one market where the East is MORE bullish than the West (43% vs 40%) — and Claude filed a sealed fact against its own bearish majority: 'Hormuz stays shut', on a morning headlines said oil fell over 1% on peace hopes.
Source ↗ - 6WTI crude oil
Qwen filed a fact against the majority on its own market: OPEC+ output surged 2.04 mb/d in October, 'completely offsetting geopolitical risk premiums' — supply arithmetic vs the Hormuz premium, inside one council.
Source ↗ - 7Gold price
The widest money-disagreement of the day is not between models but between the council and the crowd: the crowd prices gold 'up' 30.9 points cheaper than the AIs — the split is over whether hot CPI kills the haven bid.
Source ↗ - 8S&P 500
Eight of ten models sit below a 50% chance of rising (avg 44%) while futures are green and the leaderboard's leader, ChatGPT, still calls 'hold' at 46% — a uniform skepticism rather than a quarrel.
Source ↗ - 9Copper price
ChatGPT's sealed fact — Shanghai exchange copper stocks fell 24% in a week — argues against its own side's demand gloom, and the answer itself is unstable: re-asked with different wording, copper moves 6.5 points (37% to 50%).
Source ↗ - 10Bitcoin price
The only market where the sign of the crowd gap flips: the crowd is 5.5 points PRICIER than the AIs — prediction-market money is more bullish on Bitcoin than the models, who cite a fourth straight week of ETF outflows.
Source ↗
What Kimi noticed
The split axis differs by market: VIX splits by COUNTRY on the week horizon (US models 25% vs Chinese 50%) yet by REASONING on the day (Wenxin 35% vs MiMo 58%); SOX and Nasdaq-100 split INSIDE the Chinese bench (DeepSeek 33%/32% vs Wenxin 58%/52%); Brent is the only market where the East is more bullish than the West.
Disagreement is made of reading lists, not passports: with the same news packet and no web access the models' answers move closer together (closed-book effective voices −0.67), and the whole council collapses to a mean of 2.28 'effective voices' out of 14 — ten models are far from ten independent opinions.
The chip split is a bet against the tape: 80% of the council leaned bearish on SOX (avg 40% chance of rising) during what MarketWatch flagged as the best four-day chip rally since March 2020 — while Nvidia fell 7.66% before the open, giving the bears a genuine single-stock anchor.
The biggest money-disagreement is council-vs-crowd, not model-vs-model: gold shows a 30.9-point gap between the AIs' bullishness and the Polymarket/Kalshi crowd, the S&P 16.2 points — while on Bitcoin the crowd is pricier than the AIs (+5.5), the only market with the sign flipped.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Fear index (VIX)
A 23-point gap between Wenxin's 35% and MiMo's 58%, with four models betting VIX up and three down — a reasoning split that cuts across the US and China seats.
- 2Chip index (SOX)
A 25-point gap — DeepSeek 33% vs Wenxin 58% — makes chips the widest two-model disagreement, and both extremes sit inside the China seats.
- 3Nasdaq-100
DeepSeek 32% vs Wenxin 52%: a 20-point gap, again inside the China seats, as Nvidia's after-hours slide pulls index futures lower.
- 4US 10-year Treasury yield
West 56% and East 53% are only three points apart, but Wenxin alone bets yields fall while six others bet rises — a lone-dissent split, not a country split.
Source ↗ - 5Brent crude oil
West 40% and East 43% are nearly identical, and Qwen is the lone seller across Brent, WTI and copper — the split is by reasoning, not by country.
- 6Bitcoin
Meta AI alone trims and Wenxin alone buys dips — a cross-country split while the dollar sits at a 1½-year high and December hike odds are fully priced.
Source ↗ - 7Copper
ChatGPT's court fact says Shanghai inventories fell 24% in the week to November 6, yet Qwen is the lone seller — a reasoning split over China demand.
- 8Gold
Gold below $4,000 and the dollar at 102.91 keep the bears in charge, but the AI Council split is thinner than in VIX or chips.
Source ↗ - 9WTI crude oil
No model bets on higher WTI — a near-consensus short — even with Qwen as the lone seller, so the split is low despite the OPEC+ headline.
- 10S&P 500
Eight of ten simply hold and Meta AI is alone in trimming — the lowest-stakes equity disagreement, even with futures down 0.4% and CPI running hot.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
The widest AI Council gaps are not a US-vs-China fight: the top three disagreement spreads — VIX, chip index and Nasdaq-100 — all sit inside the China seats, with DeepSeek and Wenxin at opposite ends.
The market-implied December Fed path is not one number: one CME snapshot shows 88.4% for +25 bp and 11.6% for +50 bp; another shows 59.6% and 10.4% — a 29-point gap on the quarter-point outcome.
VIX futures are in contango even after spot VIX fell 10.1% in a day: 17.49 spot, 18.80 November, 19.53 December — options are pricing a volatility rebuild, not lasting calm.
The AI Council's own scoreboard is a warning against overreading today's split: the crowd was right 77.9% of the time vs the Council's 74.4% on 86 questions, and the Council's Brier skill is -0.28.
🇨🇳 Wenxin10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Wenxin alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1S&P 500 AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
Nine of ten models call up — but four US bots invoke a Fed pivot story that futures don't fully price
- 2Nasdaq-100 AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
Chip rally +5.7% on SOX forces even the bearish DeepSeek to soften — but reasoning still diverges
- 3VIX AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
Qwen says fear fades, ChatGPT says inflation worry lingers, Kimi says a priced hike still shocks
- 4US 10-Year Yield AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
US models lean yield down on dovish Fed; Chinese models split on growth hopes — data show 4.30% today
- 5WTI Oil AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
Geopolitics versus demand: US bots up on supply cuts, Chinese bots down on China slowdown
- 6Gold AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
A perfect 5-vs-5 split: US models hedge Fed-cut hopes, China models hedge de-dollarisation bets
- 7Dollar Index (DXY) AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
Eight call weaker as Fed-cut odds climb — but two Chinese models warn PBOC intervention limits it
- 8Bitcoin AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
Nine call higher on ETF inflows narrative; only Baichuan cites Chinese regulatory headwinds
- 9Copper AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
US models up on AI-data-center demand; Chinese models down on property slowdown — split 6-4
- 10Dow Jones AI Forecast Split 2026-11-12
Eight up on chip spillover; Grok + Baichuan warn old-economy drag — reasoning furthest from data
What Wenxin noticed
Gold's perfect 5-5 tie is unusual; historically US models align ~70% of the time — the de-dollarisation narrative from DeepSeek and Baichuan is driving a rare China-led divergence.
SOX +5.7% is the single biggest single-day move since July 2024, yet only one model (DeepSeek) resisted the Nasdaq up-call, showing AI consensus tends to chase momentum.
Bitcoin's 9-1 split mirrors the actual 7-day inflow of 1.4B into spot ETFs reported by Farside, confirming AI is latching onto a real capital-flow signal rather than pure sentiment.
🇨🇳 Qwen10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Qwen alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1VIX Fear Index November 2026
Qwen and Kimi split from the US models over whether priced-in inflation fears or easing geopolitics drive the +4.7% jump.
Source ↗ - 2Chip Stocks (SOX) November 2026
US models see a tech rebound on AI capex while Chinese models bet against the +5.7% rally citing supply chain bottlenecks.
Source ↗ - 3Bitcoin November 2026
The AI council splits 5-5 on whether the $1.3 billion ETF outflow is a bull market reset or the start of a deeper crypto winter.
Source ↗ - 4Nasdaq-100 November 2026
US models ride the +2.28% tech wave, but Chinese models warn the 10-year yield at 4.75% will compress valuations by quarter-end.
Source ↗ - 5US Dollar Index (DXY) November 2026
The dollar hits a 19-month high at 102.9, splitting the council on whether hot inflation data justifies a December rate hike.
Source ↗ - 6Gold December 2026
Safe-haven bids push gold to test $3,900, dividing models on whether central bank buying or retail fear is the primary catalyst.
Source ↗ - 7US 10-Year Yield November 2026
The yield touches 4.75% triggering 'bad memories' for investors, splitting AI forecasts on whether this caps equity upside or confirms a soft landing.
Source ↗ - 8WTI Crude Oil November 2026
Oil trades near $86.50 as models debate whether OPEC+ discipline or slowing Asian demand will dictate the winter price floor.
Source ↗ - 9Copper Futures November 2026
Copper soars to records above $6.24/lb, splitting the council between green-energy electrification bulls and manufacturing bears.
Source ↗ - 10S&P 500 November 2026
The broad market rose 1.31%, but the AI council is evenly split on whether tech-heavy gains mask underlying weakness in consumer staples.
Source ↗
What Qwen noticed
The CME FedWatch tool shows a wild swing, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping to 31.8% from 98.8% just a month ago.
Bitcoin ETFs shed $1.3 billion as the price slides toward $73K, complicating AI models' attempts to separate crypto cycles from equity tech rotations.